Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Youngs, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Current radar imagery this morning is depicting diminishing northwest flow lake effect rain and higher terrain snow showers across across the areas east of the Genesee Valley and across the Finger Lakes, as well as a few upslope showers across the Tug Hill.

Across the western portions of the area, dry air associated with the northern periphery of surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas will gradually shift east into the region today supporting mainly dry weather. Meanwhile, a colder airmass will remain across the eastern portions of the forecast area. This combined with a passing shortwave trough, will support scattered northwest flow light lake effect rain and higher elevation snow showers to persist east and southeast of Lake Ontario.

Aforementioned surface high pressure and associated drier air will continue to spread east tonight, supporting ongoing light lake effect showers to peter off.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday will start dry with lingering dry air and subsidence across the eastern Great Lakes as high pressure drifts east towards New England. A progressive mid level trough will then dig southeast across Ontario and the Great Lakes later Saturday through Saturday night, with a deepening surface low passing just north of Lake Ontario Saturday night. Strong forcing for ascent in the DPVA/height falls regime ahead of the trough will combine with warm advection and moisture transport to allow rain to develop from west to east across the area late morning through afternoon Saturday. The cold front of the system will then sweep east across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, with ongoing showers.

Precipitation will be all rain until close to daybreak Sunday as much cooler air aloft pours back into the Great Lakes behind the system. Rainfall amounts will be relatively limited with the fast movement of this system. Expect 0.10" to 0.25" for the lower elevations of Western NY (a little more for higher terrain of the western Southern Tier), and 0.50" to 0.75" east of Lake Ontario where low level forcing strengthens as the surface low deepens.

A secondary coastal low will develop over the Gulf of Maine Sunday, with the resulting deep low then moving into the Canadian Maritimes Monday. Cold, cyclonic NW flow in the wake of this system will support lake effect rain and snow showers southeast of the lakes through the period. The airmass may grow cold enough for some snow accumulation, primarily Sunday night through the first half of Monday when the coldest air aloft and in the boundary layer crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Still much too early for any details on amounts or band location, but in general the pattern supports relatively modest snow amounts southeast of the lakes.

It will be quite windy Sunday through Monday as colder air pours back into the Great Lakes, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The deep low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes Monday night will gradually move away from the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with surface high pressure building into the western Great Lakes. Lake effect snow showers Monday night will gradually diminish, although a few rain/wet snow showers may continue southeast of the lakes Tuesday through Wednesday with minimal amounts and impact.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday, bringing a brief period of mainly dry weather.
Model guidance begins to diverge on the track and timing of the next system as a mid level trough and surface low move out of the Southern Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will gradually increase again late next week with this system, but the latest 00Z guidance suggests rain may hold off until later Friday or Friday night.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Scattered light rain and higher elevation snow showers persist this morning, primarily impacting areas east of the lower Genesee Valley.
Mainly VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites this morning.
Within the scattered light lake showers a few areas of low VFR/MVFR CIGS are possible southeast of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Brief reductions in VSBY will be possible in any higher elevation snow showers.

Today, surface high pressure building into the region from the west, will support mainly VFR and dry conditions across western New York (west of the Genesee Valley). A shortwave trough diving southeast across the eastern portions of the region today (east of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes), will continue to support light lake effect rain and higher elevation snow showers today. Similar to current conditions, the showers will support brief VSBY reductions from the possible snow showers. Additionally, CIGS will continue to remain low end VFR, with MVFR possible across the higher terrain.

Surface high pressure will slide east tonight, supporting lake effect showers to diminish and VFR conditions to prevail.

Outlook...

Saturday morning... Mainly VFR.

Saturday afternoon...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR in rain from west to east.

Saturday night and Sunday.. MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with snow/brief freezing rain east of Lake Ontario. Rain changes to showers/snow showers Sunday afternoon and night behind a cold front.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow showers off the lakes.

Tuesday.. MVFR in limited lake effect precipitation, otherwise VFR.

MARINE
Northwest flow will remain over the Lakes early tonight as a deep surface low cuts northward across eastern Canada. Long duration Small Craft Advisories remain in place as outlined below on Lake Ontario this morning, although small craft headlines have been extended through mid morning Friday for southeastern Lake Ontario.

As surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes, winds and waves will fall below small craft conditions Friday through Saturday morning.

The next storm system this weekend will bring an increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front on the Lakes Saturday afternoon, with waves possibly reaching 4 feet on Lake Erie by late in the day. Then following the passage of the cold front Saturday night, both winds and waves will increase on the Lower Lakes with an extended period of high-end Small Craft Advisories from Saturday night through Monday night

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043- 044.