Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Youngs, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure overhead this evening will drift off the southern New England coast overnight. Excellent radiational cooling conditions the first half of tonight will allow temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. However, as the surface high drifts southeast of the area, a southeasterly return flow will allow temperatures to start to rise during the second half of tonight, first across western NY then progressing eastward. This may allow for some patchy frost across the North Country, but spatial coverage should be limited, as well as only a brief window for this to occur.

High pressure slides southeast off the southern New England coast on Monday, but will keep dry weather intact, with just some increasing high clouds from southwest to northeast through the afternoon.
Otherwise, after starting off the day with a shallow, but stout radiational inversion, surface heating will quickly erode the inversion and allow much warmer air off the deck to mix down to the surface. This will help boost high temperatures back above average into the 70s, with some of the traditionally warmer spots possibly getting into the low 80s (few spot mid 80s readings possible Genesee Valley).

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The period of dry weather will go by the way side as moisture advects northward ahead of the next incoming system Monday night. A broad upper level low over the Mississippi Valley Monday night will track northward towards the Ohio Valley through Wednesday before settling eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic and exiting into the Atlantic by Thursday. Initially, expect a brief period of showers across the western Southern Tier Monday night due to isentropic lift on the northern periphery of the system. The forcing and moisture advection will continue to push northward across the area Tuesday.
The battle between the dry weather already settled across the area and the incoming activity will support a few showers across WNY with mainly dry weather prevailing across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

As the upper level low moves into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night and into Wednesday, a deep southerly wind will continue to advect bountiful amounts of moisture across the forecast area. This will support showers to advance northward across western and north central New York. However, the better forcing and thus the better activity will lie across Pennsylvania Tuesday. For Wednesday, a combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 will support continued chances for showers, especially along any lake breeze boundaries.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
An upper level trough will track northeast across New England Wednesday night through Thursday continuing to support the chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Then attention turns to the next upper level trough to pivot across the Great Lakes Friday through next weekend. While there will be a brief intermission of active weather Thursday night due to a passing upper level ridge, a cold front associated with the incoming trough will be approaching WNY from the west. There continues to remain uncertainty regarding the next system, especially with the strength, timing and track of the upper level low for the remainder of the weekend. Overall, expect chances for rain showers to persist through the weekend.

Temperatures will start out above normal Thursday and Friday before cooling off in the wake of the cold front to near normal for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure draped across the Lower Great Lakes this evening will slide into southern New England overnight, then will drift off the east coast Monday. This will provide our region with widespread VFR conditions through the TAF period...with mainly clear skies through Monday morning giving way to some increasing high clouds across western New York Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night
Increasing/lowering clouds from south to north
with a chance of showers/IFR across the Southern Tier overnight...otherwise mainly VFR.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with chance of of a few showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

MARINE
High pressure draped across the Lower Great Lakes this evening will drift to southern New England overnight...with generally light to modest winds and minimal wave action prevailing.

Light winds will continue Monday. Tuesday through Thursday, winds will generally be east to southeast on the lakes with a light to moderate chop at times, but no Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.