Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Youngs, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Regional radar shows the much more robust activity that was well to our northwest earlier has weakened considerably, with just few showers left to pass across eastern Lake Ontario over the next couple of hours.

Otherwise, a 594 dm ridge will build northward into the Ohio Valley tonight. A long lasting MCS will ride the top of the ridge and move across southern Ontario and eventually into northern New York/New England by Sunday morning. Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture advection, sufficient instability and a strong low-level jet will support the chance for severe thunderstorms across the Eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight into Sunday morning.
Damaging winds, large hail, and torrential downpours are possible.
Much lower chances for a few showers/isolated storm may extend further west along a frontal boundary across western NY, however confidence is low at this time. Outside of convection, winds will increase tonight with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph across the Niagara Frontier. WARM tonight with low temperatures in the 70s, upper 70s just south of Lake Ontario.

The ridge will become centered over the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday through Sunday night. Temperatures at 850mb will get to around +20C Sunday with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This will result in heat indices from the mid 90s to low 100s. Breezy, southwest winds will keep it slightly cooler across portions of the Niagara Frontier and immediate Lake Erie shoreline, as well as east of Lake Ontario. Little relief to the warmth will occur Sunday night with low temperatures in the 70s. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible across the Niagara Frontier to the Finger Lakes region Sunday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Heat Advisory Continues Through Tuesday

Main forecast concerns for the short term period will be the continuation of an extended period of heat with little overnight relief. By the start of Monday, the upper level ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic region continuing to support the dry and abnormally warm weather across western and north-central NY.
This pattern will continue into Tuesday resulting in the third consecutive day of above normal and near record temperatures across the region. By late Tuesday afternoon, a cold front extending south from a low pressure system passing overtop of the ridge in Canada will bring increasing cloud cover and the chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. PoPs are only around 15-20% at this time, but chances for precipitation will increase later in the week.

Heat: With the building ridge over the region, 500mb heights will climb to climatological maximum values for late June across western NY based on the NAEFS and EC. The grand ensemble shows 850mb temps ranging from 20-22 DegC Monday morning at Buffalo, which would be over the daily max value based on sounding climatology. Monday looks to be the hottest day of this upcoming stretch of heat with afternoon highs in the 90s and probabilities of exceeding 95 degF being over 50% from Rochester eastward as well as down in the Genesee Valley per the latest NBM for Monday. Humid air will result in "Feels like" temperatures in the upper 90s to over 100. Tuesday's temperatures will be slightly cooler as the upper level ridge begins to retreat southward, but still expecting "Feels Like" temperatures in the 90s. Again, the areas of most concern with the highest heat indicies will be from Rochester eastward as well as near Dansville in the Genesee Valley. Additionally, overnight relief will be minimal as the latest forecasts in the mid-70s are in the territory of breaking high low temperature records Monday and Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A wavy frontal boundary will sag southward Wednesday - Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing along this boundary. As the ridge of high pressure slides to the Southeast, deep flow from the Gulf will again push higher moisture content air into our region with PWATS reaching into the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range. This will allow for any thunderstorms that develop to possibly contain heavy rainfall.

Increasing clouds and cooling aloft pushing into our region with the southeastern movement of the ridge axis will end the oppressive heat and humidity, though typical summer time temperatures in the 80s are still expected.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A few scattered light showers will be possible through mid evening east of Lake Ontario (KART), otherwise expect VFR conditions through the early overnight hours.

A long-lasting complex thunderstorms over Lake Huron will move east and eventually into the eastern Lake Ontario region later tonight into Sunday morning. There is a chance of TSRA at KART late tonight.
Further south, confidence and chances for any TSRA are much lower to reach the remaining terminals south of Lake Ontario.

A strong low level jet will move across the region tonight through Sunday. Low level wind shear is expected tonight. Breezy conditions are expected tonight through Sunday as well with wind gusts up to 35 mph at KBUF, KIAG, and KROC.

Mainly VFR conditions at the western NY TAF sites through the period. Flight conditions will likely be reduced at KART late tonight into Sunday morning. VFR conditions expected elsewhere Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR/MVFR.

MARINE
An area of low pressure will pass well north of the lower Great Lakes tonight and Sunday, which will cause southwesterlies to freshen as the pressure gradient tightens between this system and high pressure that will have temporarily retreated just to our south. Thus, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all of Lake Ontario starting tonight and lasting through a portion of Sunday afternoon as outlined below. Even areas not headlined will see a good deal of chop later tonight and Sunday as southwesterlies will be elevated on both lakes.

CLIMATE
A dome of heat will settle upon the Lower Great Lakes next week, with temperatures both daytime and through the night pushing towards record values. Below are the temperature records for our three climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Both Buffalo and Rochester have been keeping temperature records since 1871, and Watertown has been keeping temperature records since 1949.

Date
Maximum Temp(F)....Warm Minimum Temp (F).

Buffalo

June 22nd
92/1957
June 23rd
92/1964..........72/1957
June 24th
92/1949..........72/2013

Rochester

June 22nd
93/2022
June 23rd
95/1888..........74/1888
June 24th
96/1949..........70/2014

Watertown

June 22nd
89/2020
June 23rd
91/1975..........71/1957
June 24th
91/1999..........71/2013

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ043.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ044.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ045.