Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Enfield, NH

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather expected

Much of the area ended up under clear skies this afternoon as we saw some brief 500mb height rises. Clouds are expected to increase through tonight as a surface trough remains draped over the area along with a 500mb trough that will be beginning to dig in to the region. I have blended in cooler guidance for tonight's lows as I expect clouds to hold off long enough to keep the window for radiational cooling open for a good chunk of the night. The areas that look to stay a bit warmer are the upslope areas of the mountains, as clouds hang on there, and southeastern New Hampshire as they will be the first to see clouds from the system moving up the coast. Because of this lows actually end up pretty uniform, +/- 5 either side of zero, areawide.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant weather expected

We will start Thursday partly cloudy, but clouds will be quickly advancing from south to north as a system passes us well to our southeast. Even the latest hi-res guidance has trended it eastward so at the very most the immediate coast may see some brief flurries overnight Thursday, but that chance is becoming increasingly less likely. High temperatures look to be able to climb near 30 south of the mountains before it gets too cloudy, with low to mid-20s to the north. Clouds will be fully in by the evening hours so lows only end up in the teens Thursday night.
As mentioned earlier much of the area remains dry from this system but as northerly flow kicks in after midnight on Thursday, we likely see upslope snow showers begin, mainly in Northern New Hampshire, and last into the early hours of Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages:

* Gusty northwest winds Friday will not be as strong as winds earlier this week. Temperatures remain chilly through Saturday.

* Dry and seasonably mild conditions are expected for Sunday through the middle of next week.

--Pattern and Summary--

An increasingly progressive flow across North America is expected through the long term forecast period with both the NAO and EPO moving into positive territory for the first time this month. With an increasing influence from the Pacific during the long term, this portends temperatures moving above normal
which
for many locations south of the mountains may result in the first day above 40F in over a month by early next week. While the flow is increasingly progressive... the AO is in positive territory which will will allow for arctic air to continue to be available away from the pole...with fairly robust ensemble support that by the end of next week we may see temperatures back below seasonal norms.

There is very little support for significant widespread precipitation during the period with the pattern dominated by relatively moisture-starved, fast moving waves in the northern stream.

--Details--

Friday: Chilly northwest flow in place Friday with low pressure moving into the Canadian maritimes
While moisture is shallow
DGZ is well placed to support SHSN activity in the upslope region of the whites. This is captured well in the regional GEM and 3km NAM. H9 gradient of 20-30kts with collocated cold advection /though no isallobaric assistance/ suggests some gusty northwest winds...though far less than earlier this week. Gusts to 30 mph look reasonable at this range.

Weekend: High pressure ridge axis overhead Saturday flattens through the weekend with flow turning more westerly. T9s will respond to the backing flow by warming from around -10C on Saturday closer to - 6C for Sunday. Dry airmass in place suggests plenty of sun Saturday with more of a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Chilly morning Saturday will give way to highs in the 20s north to lower 30s south with these values warming 3-4F into Sunday as WAA commences.

Monday through Wednesday: Brisk west-northwest flow aloft with gradually warming temperatures aloft. There is modest ensemble support for a shortwave embedded in this flow in the Monday night- Tuesday timeframe. This will bring the threat of some mountain snow showers with a few of these potentially reaching to the south and east...with daytime temperatures warm enough that rain or snow showers will be possible Tuesday. Gradual drying into Wednesday will bring dry and relatively mild temperatures to the coast and foothills with some snow showers continuing in the mountains with upslope flow.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Short Term...Ceilings remain generally VFR through tonight.
HIE, PSM, and MHT have the best chance of seeing some low clouds close to MVFR tonight, but otherwise thicker and lower cloud decks should hold off until at least Thursday afternoon. Winds remain generally light through Thursday night.

Long Term...Northwesterly winds 15G25kts on Friday subside into the weekend.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will dominate the period with the potential for a few MVFR/IFR SHSN at HIE Friday.

MARINE
Short Term...Seas generally remain 1-3 ft through Thursday night. Northwesterly wind gusts ramp up Thursday night with gusts 25-30 kts after midnight as strong low pressure passes southeast of the waters.

Long Term...SCAs will be necessary Friday into Friday night as low pressure moves into the Canadian maritimes
Weaker
but marginal SCA gusts Saturday over the outer waters with winds subsiding into Sunday before turning southerly on Monday

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.