Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Enfield, NH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
1140 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Lowered forecast lows in some southern interior valleys where temperatures have already cooled to the previous forecast lows. Clouds will continue to sink south through the remainder of the night though, which will help to slow the rate of cooling for most.

Previously...
730 PM Update... Performed another round of mostly minor adjustments to the near term portion of the forecast based on latest observational trends. Skies are now mainly clear south of the mountains and this has allowed temperatures to quickly cool with readings in some cases already 15+ degrees below earlier highs. This clearing should be replaced by increasing cloud cover after midnight as increased moisture/clouds from the passing s/wv arrives. Still expecting fairly numerous snow and rain showers through the night across the north and mountains.

Previously...
450 PM Update... Increased PoPs across portions of Cumberland and Androscoggin counties in Maine to account for scattered rain showers that are streaming from northwest to southeast.
While rainfall amounts will likely only a few hundredths of an inch, it will be sufficient to wet the ground in some places and also quickly cool temperatures through wet bulbing. Otherwise, just made some minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points based on latest observational trends.

Previously...
Persistent upslope showers continue this evening. Generally above 2500 ft these will remain snow. To out north an upper low is funneling moisture westward into Quebec and Ontario. This moisture will be caught ahead of a trailing S/WV trof and eventually forced over the local terrain tonight. We are certainly in the shoulder season for upslope snow showers...but the current model guidance is suggestive of a decent event. A closed circulation with ample moisture and strong cross barrier flow will be supportive of an increase in coverage and intensity of snow shower activity overnight. The only thing really holding the event back is marginal valley temps for snow. So the slopes above 1000 to 1500 ft should see several inches of snow...while the first flakes are possible in the valleys. There may even be snow cover by morning in and around the Connecticut Lakes.
Because of the cloud cover and gradient winds expected overnight the potential for radiational cooling is much lower than last night. For frost it looks like we will really need sheltered pockets to go calm and most of those locations are outside of the active growing zones.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Trof axis passes the forecast area and we are left with CAA thru the day. Temps will be similar to today or a couple of degrees cooler. Gusts during the day may reach 25 mph. Surface high will nose into the region late Wed and set up a night for favorable radiational cooling. I have blended MOS guidance with the median NBM forecast...which yields widespread 20s and 30s down to the coast. It is likely that frosty advisories will be needed and maybe even some freeze warnings.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Quiet extended period through the middle of next week, with the only headline being above normal temps, as we move into more zonal flow, but the 500 mb jet shifts poleward of 50 N by the weekend, thus allowing the sub tropical ridging to shift toward the intl border, and escorting the warmer air in as well, and temps should be running 10-15 F above normal Sat through at least next Tuesday, with only a weak fast moving wave tracking across QC and St Lawrence Bay late Sunday, which should only produce a brief increase in clouds in the N.

As for temps, Thu should see highs near normal, generally in the 50s, and lows Thu night in the upper 20s N to upper 30s S.
Friday will see some incremental warming with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The weekend into early next week will feature highs in the low to mid 60s in the mtns to the mid 60s to low 70s in the S, and overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
All this beneath mainly clear skies through the forecast period

AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term
Widespread VFR conditions
especially during the day. Tonight a solid MVFR CIG will remain upstream of the mtns affecting HIE into early Wed. Additionally some SHRA or SHSN will be likely near HIE. Confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time...but some local MVFR or IFR VIS is possible in any precip
Some valley fog is possible Wed night
and local IFR or lower is possible at LEB
HIE
and CON.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Thursday through the weekend. There is some possibility of valley fog at KHIE/KLEB Thu or Fri night.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds diminish briefly tonight but are expected to pick up again early Wed as CAA increases behind a cold front.
Gusts outside of the bays will once again be near 25 kt with seas building to 5 ft. The SCA remains in effect outside of the bays...with Penobscot Bay dropping out of the SCA this evening.

Long Term...Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA levels through the weekend as high pressure build in Thu/Fri and hold over the area into early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152- 154.