Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lacona, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Gusty winds this afternoon, especially across Western NY.

2) Cool and unsettled with periods of lake enhanced rain showers through Monday morning.

3) Colder and unsettled weather returns late in the week, with some wet snow potential.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds this afternoon, especially across Western NY.

A tight pressure gradient across the Great Lakes this afternoon as a potent mid level trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. KBUF VWP showed 35 to 40 knots in the 2K to 4K layer with breaks of sunshine helping to mix much of the stronger winds down to the surface. Peak gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range northeast of Lake Erie from the Niagara Frontier to near Rochester will continue this afternoon, with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range today.

It will remain windy tonight through Monday morning, with boundary layer flow gradually veering to the WNW overnight. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common across the entire region, with some 40 mph gusts possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool and unsettled with periods of lake enhanced rain showers through Monday morning.

A progressive and potent mid level trough will dig from the upper Great Lakes tonight to New England by Monday, with an associated cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The airmass is cool enough to support a lake response ahead of the cold front. A few lake effect rain showers should develop east/northeast of the lakes by early this evening as forcing and synoptic scale moisture increase. Initial development will be near Buffalo and Watertown on WSW flow.

Boundary layer flow will veer to the WNW tonight and NW by Monday morning, carrying lake effect and lake enhanced rain showers southeast of the lakes. Synoptic scale forcing will be strong enough to support scattered to numerous showers even outside of lake effect areas overnight through early Monday. Lake enhancement will bring steadier rain and higher QPF east and southeast of the lakes, with the highest rain amounts across the Tug Hill and Oswego County. A few locations may pick up 0.50" to 0.75" of rain, with the steady translation of lake effect bands southward in veering wind profiles preventing any higher totals. Boundary layer temperatures stay warm enough for all liquid, although a few locations may see some graupel or small hail in convective lake effect showers.

Showers will continue through Monday morning, especially southeast of the lakes from ongoing lake enhancement and upslope flow. The mid level trough and associated deeper moisture will then pull away in the afternoon, with showers gradually ending from west to east. The last of the showers across Central NY and the higher terrain of the North Country will mostly end by mid to late afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Windy conditions will continue this afternoon, especially northeast of Lake Erie where gusts from the southwest will reach or exceed 35 knots at KBUF, KIAG, and KROC this afternoon. Elsewhere, expect gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. It will stay breezy tonight, with winds gradually veering to the WNW and gusting in the 20 to 30 knot range areawide.

A fast moving and potent mid level trough will dig from the upper Great Lakes tonight to New England by Monday, with an associated cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Expect lake effect rain showers to develop east/northeast of the lakes by this evening near KBUF and KART initially, with MVFR becoming likely. The passage of the mid level trough and ongoing lake enhanced rain will support numerous showers overnight, most persistent east and southeast of the lakes. MVFR CIGS will become widespread overnight in lake effect and upslope clouds, with some IFR possible across higher terrain. Some of the lake effect showers will bring MVFR/brief IFR VSBY as well.

Outlook...

Monday.. MVFR/IFR with showers likely in the morning, especially southeast of the lakes. Improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and MVFR across the Tug Hill region.

Thursday...Deteriorating to MVFR with rain become likely.

Friday.. MVFR/IFR with rain and wet snow showers.

MARINE
Westerly winds, with sustained winds peaking at around 30 knots this afternoon through tonight on both lakes, along with some gale force gusts. This will support high end Small Craft Advisory through tonight.

Small craft advisory conditions will continue through Monday, with winds gradually diminishing from west to east. There will be a brief break of somewhat lower winds Monday night before another round of Small Craft Advisory winds and waves develops on both lakes Tuesday.

Cool air aloft and periods of lake enhanced showers will also support a chance of waterspouts tonight through Monday morning.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043>045.