Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lacona, NY
 | Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 4:44 PM Moonrise 9:46 PM Moonset 12:34 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 403 Pm Est Sun Nov 9 2025
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening - .
Tonight - Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain early, then a chance of rain, freezing rain and snow late this evening. Snow, rain likely with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then snow and rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday night - West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Thursday - West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then rain showers with a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ005
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacona, NY
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS61 KBUF 100805 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 305 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
An early winter arctic airmass will flow across the lakes today into Tuesday with chilly temperatures and a transition to lake effect snow southeast of the lakes. The lake effect will intensify this evening with accumulating snows lasting into Tuesday night.
Relatively warmer air then arrives by Wednesday with rain mixing back in.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A broad area of surface low pressure along the eastern seaboard this today will deepen and become more compact as it takes a sharp northward turn across Maine and into eastern Quebec. Concurrently, the core of a deep upper level trough will gradually shift eastward directly over the eastern Great Lakes. This will maintain a continuous cold north to northwesterly flow across the lakes with 850mb temps hovering around -11C. Still some freezing rain/drizzle up in the North Country early this morning, otherwise general wrap- around light snow showers across the region will gradually transition to a lake effect/upslope regime through the course of the day today and become focused south to southeast of the lakes as the flow backs. For this reason, various winter weather headlines have been issued with this update for counties in these areas.
While most will continue to see at least on and off light snow today, some mid-level drying of the overhead airmass will limit the potential for more significant accumulations in most areas through the day. The main exception will be along the Chautauqua Ridge where added orographic enhancement could allow for several additional inches of snow to accumulate. Any snow today will have an easier time sticking to area roadways today (especially bridges/overpasses)
since aside from the northern Finger Lakes region, temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark. For this reason have hedged earlier with the start time for the advisories SE of the lakes, though the 'main show' for the lake effect will likely be tonight into Tuesday morning. This is when deeper synoptic moisture will wrap back across the lakes with increasing fetch across Lake Ontario and an upstream connection to Lake Huron. This should allow for a relatively well-defined band to climb northward across the NY/PA line and another to develop along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario and eastward towards southern Oswego County. Still some uncertainty in the possibility of a Georgian Bay band possibly bringing some localized higher totals to portions of the Niagara Frontier.
Forecasted highest accumulations in the areas SE of the lakes through Tuesday morning are marginal between high-end advisory and warning amounts, though with the preceding accumulations expected along the Chautauqua Ridge today, have opted to upgrade to an LES Warning there with advisories in the other LE areas. Temps will be cold tonight with lows in the 20s, a few readings in the teens at the higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday through Tuesday night will then feature broadening and de- amplifying upper troughing across our region as a rather sharp/ elongated upper low ejects northeastward into Quebec...while another embedded shortwave trough dives southeastward from central Canada to the Upper Great Lakes
At the surface
this will result in low- level ridging building eastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday...
then sliding off into New England Tuesday night as another broad surface trough drops across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes.
These developments will lead to the low-level flow steadily backing from west-northwesterly to westerly during the course of Tuesday...
and then to an increasingly sheared southwesterly orientation Tuesday night...which in turn will allow for steady warm advection to develop Tuesday and continue through Tuesday night...with consensus 850 mb temps eventually rising from -10C to -12C initially to between -3C and -5C over Lake Erie and -4C to -6C over Lake Ontario. Meanwhile synoptic-scale moisture will temporarily thin out during the course of Tuesday in tandem with the building low-level ridge...before increasing again Tuesday night with the approach of the next surface trough.
Off Lake Erie...the initial cold WNW flow and an upstream connection to Lake Huron should result in a fairly organized area of lake snows continuing across southern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties into Tuesday morning...with the backing flow/loss of the upstream connection and drying attendant to the building low level ridge then causing the activity to weaken as it drifts northward across Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties and into Southern Erie county through the balance of the day. With diurnal warming of the boundary layer and ongoing warm advection aloft...some limited rain may also mix in across the lower elevations around the periphery of the band.
This should result in additional accumulations of 2-4 inches in the Warning/Advisory areas southeast of the lake...before further backing of the flow and increasing shear quickly sends the weakened lake snows further north across the Niagara Frontier and into Niagara county during Tuesday evening. The quick movement and weakened state of the band by this time should keep any accumulations across the Niagara Frontier Tuesday evening confined to an inch or two. Overnight the band will linger mostly across Niagara county with increasing/deepening synoptic moisture leading to some re-strengthening...however by this time the increasingly warmer environment will also be coming into play...and should help to cut down on additional accums/possibly even allow some rain to mix in.
Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...the initial cold WNW flow should direct decent lake snows across the Monroe county-southern Oswego county corridor through the morning...before the aforementioned ridge and associated backing flow/drying causes these to also weaken and drift northward mostly into Oswego county by evening. Additional accums in the Advisory area during Tuesday look to be on the order of 2-4 inches...with most of this coming during the morning as increasingly marginal boundary layer temperatures and the weakening nature of the activity should result only limited additional accums during the afternoon. The lake snows should then drift further north across the North Country and into northern Jefferson county/the Saint Lawrence Valley Tuesday night while continuing to weaken as the flow backs and becomes increasingly sheared. Expect another general 1-3" east of Lake Ontario as these drift north Tuesday night...with the greatest amounts found across the Tug Hill.
Wednesday and Wednesday evening the axis of the surface trough will pivot across our region...with an initially sheared southwesterly flow at the start of Wednesday veering to westerly and eventually becoming better aligned again off both lakes. The timing of this wind shift remains somewhat in question given continued differences amongst the guidance suite...but should generally take place sometime during the late morning/afternoon off Lake Erie...and late Wednesday/Wednesday evening off Lake Ontario...with a general westerly flow then expected through the remainder of this period.
This will result in lake effect activity northeast of the lakes Wednesday morning shifting back southward to areas east of the lakes as winds veer Wednesday afternoon and evening
Meanwhile
the passing surface trough will also likely generate at least some spotty light pcpn of its own outside of the main lake effect areas.
At the same time...850 mb temps will warm to between -2C and -4C areawide...with diurnal warming of the boundary layer pushing temps back up into the mid 30s to mid 40s during Wednesday. The resultant warming thermal profiles should result in progressively more rain mixing in during the day...with the lower elevations likely seeing ptype change over to all rain for the afternoon. The exact timing and speed of this transition will dictate how much additional snow we'll see during the day Wednesday...with the best chances of any snow and associated (likely minor) accumulations coming during the early morning hours northeast of the lakes...and across the higher terrain east of both lakes. Additional mixed lake effect rain and snow will then continue east of the lakes Wednesday night...with additional minor to modest accumulations possible across the higher terrain.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Thursday and Friday our region will remain under the influence of upper-level troughing...with the axis of this gradually migrating eastward to the Canadian Maritimes over time. This will maintain below normal temperatures across our region (though nowhere near as cold as Monday-Tuesday) through the end of the work week...along with a general westerly to west-northwesterly flow that will gradually dry out over time as low level ridging begins building in from the west
Consequently
lingering areas of lake effect pcpn east and southeast of the lakes Thursday will gradually diminish from west to east over time through the end of the work week...with marginal temperature profiles allowing ptype to transition to mostly rain/some higher elevation wet snow each day...then back to more in the way of snow at night
Outside of these
conditions should tend to be mainly dry.
By Saturday...generally dry and quiet weather is expected with our region directly under the influence of an elongated surface ridge...
before the next (and notably warmer) low pressure system brings renewed chances for some rain to our region by later Saturday night/Sunday...along with temps climbing back to a little above average.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly MVFR/IFR today as light snow showers continue across the region. Still a light wintry mix hanging on across parts of the North Country though this should also switch over to snow by 12z.
Cigs will gradually improve to mainly MVFR though periods of IFR vsbys will be possible through this afternoon.
As flow becomes more northwesterly through the course of the day and into tonight, the bulk of the snow showers will be focused southeast of the lakes with localized IFR. Confidence remains relatively low in potential impacts at the TAF sites tonight. The southern end of the Lake Ontario band may periodically clip KROC but remain south of KART. Heavy impacts to vsbys will be possible at KJHW mainly after 06z. Finally, a lake band stemming from Georgian Bay could materialize and bring localized impacts to KBUF/KIAG. Outside of the main lake effect areas, MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys will prevail.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Lake effect snow and local IFR/LIFR southeast of the lakes, VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers elsewhere.
Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers, especially east and northeast of the lakes. Windy.
Thursday...Areas of MVFR with rain and snow showers likely, especially southeast of the lakes.
Friday.. MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.
MARINE
Surface low pressure along the eastern seaboard today will deepen as it takes a sharp northward turn across Maine and into eastern Quebec tonight. Northwesterly breezes will remain elevated across the lakes on the backside of this system through tonight. Winds will then turn westerly later Tuesday and further strengthen. This will result in long duration SCA conditions on all nearshore waters of both lakes as outlined below. Confidence is increasing in winds hitting gale force between Tuesday night through Wednesday night on the open eastern Great Lakes waters.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001- 002-007-008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>006.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 305 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
An early winter arctic airmass will flow across the lakes today into Tuesday with chilly temperatures and a transition to lake effect snow southeast of the lakes. The lake effect will intensify this evening with accumulating snows lasting into Tuesday night.
Relatively warmer air then arrives by Wednesday with rain mixing back in.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A broad area of surface low pressure along the eastern seaboard this today will deepen and become more compact as it takes a sharp northward turn across Maine and into eastern Quebec. Concurrently, the core of a deep upper level trough will gradually shift eastward directly over the eastern Great Lakes. This will maintain a continuous cold north to northwesterly flow across the lakes with 850mb temps hovering around -11C. Still some freezing rain/drizzle up in the North Country early this morning, otherwise general wrap- around light snow showers across the region will gradually transition to a lake effect/upslope regime through the course of the day today and become focused south to southeast of the lakes as the flow backs. For this reason, various winter weather headlines have been issued with this update for counties in these areas.
While most will continue to see at least on and off light snow today, some mid-level drying of the overhead airmass will limit the potential for more significant accumulations in most areas through the day. The main exception will be along the Chautauqua Ridge where added orographic enhancement could allow for several additional inches of snow to accumulate. Any snow today will have an easier time sticking to area roadways today (especially bridges/overpasses)
since aside from the northern Finger Lakes region, temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark. For this reason have hedged earlier with the start time for the advisories SE of the lakes, though the 'main show' for the lake effect will likely be tonight into Tuesday morning. This is when deeper synoptic moisture will wrap back across the lakes with increasing fetch across Lake Ontario and an upstream connection to Lake Huron. This should allow for a relatively well-defined band to climb northward across the NY/PA line and another to develop along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario and eastward towards southern Oswego County. Still some uncertainty in the possibility of a Georgian Bay band possibly bringing some localized higher totals to portions of the Niagara Frontier.
Forecasted highest accumulations in the areas SE of the lakes through Tuesday morning are marginal between high-end advisory and warning amounts, though with the preceding accumulations expected along the Chautauqua Ridge today, have opted to upgrade to an LES Warning there with advisories in the other LE areas. Temps will be cold tonight with lows in the 20s, a few readings in the teens at the higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday through Tuesday night will then feature broadening and de- amplifying upper troughing across our region as a rather sharp/ elongated upper low ejects northeastward into Quebec...while another embedded shortwave trough dives southeastward from central Canada to the Upper Great Lakes
At the surface
this will result in low- level ridging building eastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday...
then sliding off into New England Tuesday night as another broad surface trough drops across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes.
These developments will lead to the low-level flow steadily backing from west-northwesterly to westerly during the course of Tuesday...
and then to an increasingly sheared southwesterly orientation Tuesday night...which in turn will allow for steady warm advection to develop Tuesday and continue through Tuesday night...with consensus 850 mb temps eventually rising from -10C to -12C initially to between -3C and -5C over Lake Erie and -4C to -6C over Lake Ontario. Meanwhile synoptic-scale moisture will temporarily thin out during the course of Tuesday in tandem with the building low-level ridge...before increasing again Tuesday night with the approach of the next surface trough.
Off Lake Erie...the initial cold WNW flow and an upstream connection to Lake Huron should result in a fairly organized area of lake snows continuing across southern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties into Tuesday morning...with the backing flow/loss of the upstream connection and drying attendant to the building low level ridge then causing the activity to weaken as it drifts northward across Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties and into Southern Erie county through the balance of the day. With diurnal warming of the boundary layer and ongoing warm advection aloft...some limited rain may also mix in across the lower elevations around the periphery of the band.
This should result in additional accumulations of 2-4 inches in the Warning/Advisory areas southeast of the lake...before further backing of the flow and increasing shear quickly sends the weakened lake snows further north across the Niagara Frontier and into Niagara county during Tuesday evening. The quick movement and weakened state of the band by this time should keep any accumulations across the Niagara Frontier Tuesday evening confined to an inch or two. Overnight the band will linger mostly across Niagara county with increasing/deepening synoptic moisture leading to some re-strengthening...however by this time the increasingly warmer environment will also be coming into play...and should help to cut down on additional accums/possibly even allow some rain to mix in.
Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...the initial cold WNW flow should direct decent lake snows across the Monroe county-southern Oswego county corridor through the morning...before the aforementioned ridge and associated backing flow/drying causes these to also weaken and drift northward mostly into Oswego county by evening. Additional accums in the Advisory area during Tuesday look to be on the order of 2-4 inches...with most of this coming during the morning as increasingly marginal boundary layer temperatures and the weakening nature of the activity should result only limited additional accums during the afternoon. The lake snows should then drift further north across the North Country and into northern Jefferson county/the Saint Lawrence Valley Tuesday night while continuing to weaken as the flow backs and becomes increasingly sheared. Expect another general 1-3" east of Lake Ontario as these drift north Tuesday night...with the greatest amounts found across the Tug Hill.
Wednesday and Wednesday evening the axis of the surface trough will pivot across our region...with an initially sheared southwesterly flow at the start of Wednesday veering to westerly and eventually becoming better aligned again off both lakes. The timing of this wind shift remains somewhat in question given continued differences amongst the guidance suite...but should generally take place sometime during the late morning/afternoon off Lake Erie...and late Wednesday/Wednesday evening off Lake Ontario...with a general westerly flow then expected through the remainder of this period.
This will result in lake effect activity northeast of the lakes Wednesday morning shifting back southward to areas east of the lakes as winds veer Wednesday afternoon and evening
Meanwhile
the passing surface trough will also likely generate at least some spotty light pcpn of its own outside of the main lake effect areas.
At the same time...850 mb temps will warm to between -2C and -4C areawide...with diurnal warming of the boundary layer pushing temps back up into the mid 30s to mid 40s during Wednesday. The resultant warming thermal profiles should result in progressively more rain mixing in during the day...with the lower elevations likely seeing ptype change over to all rain for the afternoon. The exact timing and speed of this transition will dictate how much additional snow we'll see during the day Wednesday...with the best chances of any snow and associated (likely minor) accumulations coming during the early morning hours northeast of the lakes...and across the higher terrain east of both lakes. Additional mixed lake effect rain and snow will then continue east of the lakes Wednesday night...with additional minor to modest accumulations possible across the higher terrain.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Thursday and Friday our region will remain under the influence of upper-level troughing...with the axis of this gradually migrating eastward to the Canadian Maritimes over time. This will maintain below normal temperatures across our region (though nowhere near as cold as Monday-Tuesday) through the end of the work week...along with a general westerly to west-northwesterly flow that will gradually dry out over time as low level ridging begins building in from the west
Consequently
lingering areas of lake effect pcpn east and southeast of the lakes Thursday will gradually diminish from west to east over time through the end of the work week...with marginal temperature profiles allowing ptype to transition to mostly rain/some higher elevation wet snow each day...then back to more in the way of snow at night
Outside of these
conditions should tend to be mainly dry.
By Saturday...generally dry and quiet weather is expected with our region directly under the influence of an elongated surface ridge...
before the next (and notably warmer) low pressure system brings renewed chances for some rain to our region by later Saturday night/Sunday...along with temps climbing back to a little above average.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly MVFR/IFR today as light snow showers continue across the region. Still a light wintry mix hanging on across parts of the North Country though this should also switch over to snow by 12z.
Cigs will gradually improve to mainly MVFR though periods of IFR vsbys will be possible through this afternoon.
As flow becomes more northwesterly through the course of the day and into tonight, the bulk of the snow showers will be focused southeast of the lakes with localized IFR. Confidence remains relatively low in potential impacts at the TAF sites tonight. The southern end of the Lake Ontario band may periodically clip KROC but remain south of KART. Heavy impacts to vsbys will be possible at KJHW mainly after 06z. Finally, a lake band stemming from Georgian Bay could materialize and bring localized impacts to KBUF/KIAG. Outside of the main lake effect areas, MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys will prevail.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Tuesday night...Lake effect snow and local IFR/LIFR southeast of the lakes, VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers elsewhere.
Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with rain and snow showers, especially east and northeast of the lakes. Windy.
Thursday...Areas of MVFR with rain and snow showers likely, especially southeast of the lakes.
Friday.. MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.
MARINE
Surface low pressure along the eastern seaboard today will deepen as it takes a sharp northward turn across Maine and into eastern Quebec tonight. Northwesterly breezes will remain elevated across the lakes on the backside of this system through tonight. Winds will then turn westerly later Tuesday and further strengthen. This will result in long duration SCA conditions on all nearshore waters of both lakes as outlined below. Confidence is increasing in winds hitting gale force between Tuesday night through Wednesday night on the open eastern Great Lakes waters.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001- 002-007-008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>006.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ019.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 26 mi | 55 min | NNW 11G | 33°F | 29.82 | 31°F | ||
| CAVN6 | 37 mi | 55 min | N 11G | 29°F | 45°F | 29.85 | 26°F | |
| 45135 - Prince Edward Pt | 43 mi | 25 min | N 16G | 31°F | 50°F | 2 ft | 29.87 | |
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 48 mi | 55 min | 53°F | 29.85 |
Wind History for Oswego, NY
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFZY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFZY
Wind History Graph: FZY
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of north east
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