Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacona, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:45PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 3:07PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 429 Am Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Today..East winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Patchy fog early. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:202007151515;;875286 FZUS51 KBUF 150829 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 429 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-151515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacona, NY
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location: 43.64, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 150942 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 542 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will move across the region providing fair weather through tonight, before a weak trough brings showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, heat and humidity will build late in the week, and especially through this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Some patchy fog will be possible across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario into the first part of the morning. Otherwise, upper level ridge will move across the region through tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will move east into New England today, then strengthen as it becomes nearly stationary across eastern New England tonight. Aside from a stray shower over the Tug or western Dacks this afternoon, this will maintain dry weather across the lower Great Lakes through the period. Although dew points will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s, warmer air being drawn northward on the back side of the surface high will bring a noticeable uptick in our temperatures. Highs will top out mainly in the lower to mid 80s, with a few upper 80s not out of the question across the Genesee Valley and the lake plains south of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Model trends showing a more favorable setup for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.

Ridge pushes east of the area Thursday as a shortwave trough, and its associated surface cold front advance out of the Midwest. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the cold front sweeps into the area late Thursday and Thursday night. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by late afternoon with increasingly favorable shear profiles. Locally damaging winds look to be the main threat, though an isolated tornado is possible, with backed low level flow veering with height creating strongly curved/favorable hodographs, suggestive of strong organized convection with rotating cells.

This all has the Storm Prediction Center upgrading far western New York into a slight risk for severe storms for Thursday afternoon and night.

Cold front slowly works across the area Friday. The combination of the front and upper level forcing will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Reduced instability and shear will limit severe potential. The environment will however remain very moist so any convection will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and gusty winds, before convection clears out Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, upper level ridging will attempt to invade into the region for the weekend, lasting through the beginning of next week. In its attempt, the region will become oriented under the northern portions of the upper level ridge and have more of a zonal orientation. This pattern will allow for some possible weak upper level disturbances to ride through the westerlies, which will keep the region under chances for showers and storms throughout much of the weekend and into early next week. Nearing the end of the period, there is the potential for another passage of a cold front sometime early next week.

Aside from the shower and storm potential during this time, the other headline during this time is the return of the heat and humidity. High temperatures will rise up into the upper 80s and low 90s across the region throughout the period. However, these temperatures combined with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s on Sunday and Monday will allow heat indices to reach well into the 90s.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Other than some patchy fog across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier (KJHW) and east of Lake Ontario (KART) bringing intermittent IFR/MVFR visibility through the first part of the morning, high pressure will build across the region through this evening. This will maintain VFR fight conditions and dry weather through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook .

Thursday and Thursday night . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday . VFR. Sunday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Axis of high pressure over the region today will maintain light winds and negligible waves. The only area of minimal concern will be the nearshore waters of Lake Ontario west of Sodus Bay, where freshening east to east-northeast winds this afternoon will produce some choppy conditions.

Winds will veer to the south across the region tonight and Thursday, and while winds will freshen a bit in some areas, the main concern will be the likelihood for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The storms will have an elevated risk of producing strong wind gusts.

A brief period of stronger winds will be possible late Thursday and Thursday night. Wind direction will be mainly offshore, however wind speeds may be strong enough for a short-lived round of Small Craft Advisories across the eastern half of Lake Ontario during this timeframe, with both winds and waves possibly meeting SCA criteria across the far eastern Lake Ontario nearshore waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JM/RSH NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . JM MARINE . JM/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 26 mi64 min 1020.9 hPa
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi82 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 73°F1 ft1020.2 hPa (+1.0)
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 48 mi64 min 1021.4 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 79 mi52 min 67°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi22 min SW 8 G 9.9 69°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY26 mi26 minENE 46.00 miFog/Mist63°F61°F93%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4Calm3N4W6W12W8W10W10W12SW8S5W9SE4S3CalmNE4CalmCalmE3E5E3CalmNE4
1 day agoW3W3CalmN74NW11W8W6W9
G17
W12W12W5W6W3CalmE3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmN5E3Calm
2 days agoW8W7W8W10SW10
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W11W8SW6S3S4S43S3S5NE6N36N11SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.