Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lacona, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:02PM Friday January 22, 2021 10:31 AM EST (15:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:15PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 923 Pm Est Thu Jan 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:202101221015;;287126 FZUS51 KBUF 220223 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 923 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-221015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lacona, NY
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location: 43.64, -76.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 221433 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 933 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will drop southward across the area today, with lake effect snow continuing into Saturday. High pressure will build into the eastern Great lakes by Sunday morning, ending the lake effect snow. Low pressure will pass just to our south, bringing a chance of snow late Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A mid-level trough will remain across the region through tonight, which will maintain a favorable environment for lake effect snow. An arctic boundary extending from low pressure across southern Quebec will drop south of Lake Ontario by mid day. Although 850 mb temperatures are only about -8c ahead of this front, satellite imagery suggests there is ample moisture with a shortwave to support heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario. A Lake Effect Snow warning remains in effect for Lewis and Oswego counties.

As this band pushes south of Lake Ontario this morning, it will produce a burst of heavy snow which will impact the Rochester metro area through late morning. Accumulations should be only around 2 inches, but will produce slick road conditions and poor visibility the rest of the morning in Rochester and other areas south of Lake Ontario from Orleans to Northern Cayuga county.

Drier air behind the front should temporarily disrupt lake effect snow, but an upstream connection to Georgian Bay should re-introduce ample moisture for lake effect snow off Lake Ontario later this afternoon. It will be considerably colder behind the front with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -17c. Although model guidance shows less QPF, there should be a significant increase in fluff factor with forecast soundings suggesting lift in the favorable dendritic growth zone. Based on this, will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga Counties for late this afternoon into Saturday. In Rochester the greater snow amounts would likely focus along Route 104 and into the eastern suburbs.

Off Lake Erie, there will be less of a response this morning due to the shorter fetch westerly flow and a slightly warmer air mass. Even so, snow showers will produce 1 to 3 inches today. A connection to Lake Huron (and maybe even Lake Superior) moisture is possible tonight, but this enhancement may not stay in one place for very long. This is because it will be at the very end of the 'tail' so even a slight wind shift would impact band placement. Generally see another 2 to 4 inches across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties tonight. Cannot rule out advisory amounts cannot be ruled out, but not enough confidence to issue for there yet given the potential for band movement.

With colder temperatures and drier snow, there will also be some areas of blowing snow late this afternoon and tonight. These will mainly be near the lakeshores southeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, where winds will gusting to 25 mph tonight.

Outside of lake effect snow, it will be notably colder today with temperatures dropping this afternoon behind the cold front. Lows tonight will be in the teens at most locations, with some single digits east of Lake Ontario. There will be scattered snow showers outside of the organized bands, with some light accumulation possible.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Upper level ridging and its associated surface high pressure over the upper Ohio Valley will work its way east through the weekend. Ahead of the high pressure, general northwest flow will continue to filter in the cold air from Canada, with temperatures at 850mb reaching a minimum near -17C Saturday morning. With the cold air passing over the lake, the lake effect southeast of both lakes from the day prior will continue Saturday morning allowing for some additional snow accumulations.

As the high pressure and the ridge aloft pushes in from the west Saturday afternoon, drier air and subsidence will act to dwindle down the lake snows, though the light snow showers won't deplete until Saturday night. High pressure overhead will keep dry weather through Sunday. Some moisture tries to push into the Western Southern Tier Sunday night, though conditions should remain dry.

In regards to temperatures, expect a cold weekend with below normal temperatures. Highs Saturday will mainly be a range of the teens in the higher elevations with some low 20s across the lower terrain. Temperatures will trend a tad bit warmer Sunday, causing highs in the low to mid 20s across much of NY, with the exception being the North Country where highs will stay in the teens. Lows Saturday night will drop into the upper single digits to the mid teens, with the area east of Lake Ontario seeing some low single digits to possible below zero.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A weak upper level shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley Monday will push northeast across the Ohio Valley and east into the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday. Its associated surface low will follow a similar track, though there still remains some uncertainty with regards to its placement and timing. As it stands now, the surface low will probably make its track across the Ohio Valley Monday, crossing southern Pennsylvania Monday afternoon through Tuesday. This will cause most of Monday to remain dry, with chances for snow increasing Monday afternoon as the low approaches. As the low passes by to the south Monday night into Tuesday, the chances for snow showers will increase across the areas south of Lake Ontario, with the best chances lying across the New York/Pennsylvania border. Snow chances will then decrease as the low pushes on further east Tuesday.

High pressure over the western Great Lakes Tuesday will push east for Wednesday and Thursday. With the area remaining on the eastern side of the surface high on Wednesday, general northwest flow may produce a few lake snows southeast of the lakes Wednesday. Another shortwave trough and associated surface low will follow a similar track as to the one earlier in the week on Thursday. Depending on its track and the placement of the high pressure, some slight chances for snow showers are possible Thursday.

Temperatures throughout this time will remain below normal, with highs ranging in the 20s for most of the area, and upper teens for the area east of Lake Ontario.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A cold front will move through the region through early afternoon and winds will become northwest behind it. This will cause lake snows across Lake Ontario to move into the southern shore of Lake Ontario and snow, moderate to heavy at times will impact KROC through 16z.

The snow bands will then persist across southeast Lake Ontario with the western edge close to KROC into tonight. Snow showers will continue east of Lake Erie including KJHW. MVFR cigs with periods of IFR vsby expected into tonight. The front will provide a chance for heavy snow showers across all TAF sites between 12-18z today.

Outlook .

Friday Night and Saturday . Lake effect snow showers likely southeast of the lakes with IFR conditions. Scattered snow showers with MVFR elsewhere. Sunday . Generally VFR. Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday . A chance of snow and associated IFR.

MARINE. Moderate to strong west winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front this morning. There will be an extended period of stronger winds, supporting small craft headlines through Saturday. High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday, allowing winds to subside.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006-008. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ003>005. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043- 044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . HSK/TMA MARINE . Apffel/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 26 mi44 min NW 15 G 19 32°F 1004.5 hPa29°F
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 48 mi44 min 37°F1003.9 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 79 mi44 min 27°F 1004.2 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi32 min W 7 G 9.9 32°F 1006.8 hPa (+3.4)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G28

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY26 mi36 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast32°F25°F75%1004.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN9NW9W11W11W12NW12NW7CalmSE3SE3E4E6SE3S6SE6S10
G18
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2 days agoN7NE3SW3SW4SW7SW9SW14
G25
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W10W14
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W14W14W7NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW7SW4N11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.