Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sandy Creek, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A now open negatively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley this afternoon will drift slowly north across the Great Lakes and southern New England through Thursday. Associated weak forcing and moisture will continue to produce a few rounds of showers this afternoon, lasting through Thursday.

Currently this afternoon, there lies an area of light rain showers across the Finger Lakes region and into the eastern Lake Ontario region. Across the west (west of Rochester), just cloudy skies prevail due to an area of minimal forcing and mid-level moisture. As the showers across the east slide east this afternoon, the dry weather across the west will fill in across the remainder of the forecast area. Dry weather will then last this evening and into the overnight hours. However, due to a surface low over entering the Mid- Atlantic region tonight, a few isolated showers are possible across the western Southern Tier as the next area of moisture advects northward.

The mid-level trough axis will lie overhead Thursday, sending a plume of moisture and instability across the eastern Great Lakes.
The morning will start off mainly dry, with the exception of a few showers to develop across the western Southern Tier. Diurnal instability and low level forcing from lake breeze boundaries will support an increase in shower activity Thursday afternoon. The best coverage of showers will lie from the Southern Tier northeast across the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes, and across the southern Tug Hill region. Weak flow and poor lapse rates will keep the severe risk to a minimum through Thursday evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The next closed low to impact the region will meander out of the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday night. The system will become vertically stacked as it begins to encroach on the western Great Lakes Friday, then give way to secondary cyclogenesis at the base of a secondary closed low over Hudson Bay Friday night. The aggregate trough will then finally traverse the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday.

In terms of sensible weather, this pattern should draw plenty of Gulf-based moisture into the region and result in two distinct opportunities for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.
The first will come late Thursday night into Friday as a robust prefrontal trough moves in from the west. While diurnal timing of this feature doesn't lend a significant risk of surface based convection, there will likely be enough elevated instability (up to 1500J/kg MUCAPE) and an uptick in bulk shear values (~30kts 0-6km)
to pose a lower-end risk of more robust thunderstorms as it moves through. The second round of showers and thunderstorms will come late Friday night into Saturday as the system's strong cold front similarly move in from the west. A bit more uncertainty with this round of precip as elevated instability will be present though again, diurnal timing does not appear overly favorable for strong surface based convection.

Outside the chances for showers/thunderstorms, warm and muggy weather is expected through at least Friday, though southwest flow should keep temps several degrees lower around the Buffalo Metro during the day. Slightly cooler but still quite warm for most of Saturday ahead of the cold front.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A stacked low pressure system and broad surface wave will move east of the region Saturday night. General troughing will linger across the Northeast well into next week, with strong CAA around the system causing temperatures to average near to below normal. Residual moisture with these cooler temperatures aloft could allow for some diurnal showers on Sunday, with occasional wrap around showers possibly clipping the North Country at times. Otherwise, a stout ridge building in from the Mississippi Valley will allow for mostly dry weather late Saturday night through much of Tuesday. The next closed low could then bring another round of showers in from the west by Tuesday evening.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
An open mid-level trough will continue to gradually drift northward into the Great Lakes tonight through Thursday, which is currently supporting an area of rain across across the Finger Lakes eastward (impacting the KART terminal at times) and ample amounts of cloud cover region wide. Within the cloud cover a range of low end VFR and high end MVFR CIGS grace the area this afternoon. CIGS will gradually improve this afternoon and evening to VFR as an area of weaker instability and limited moisture pivots across the region.

Tonight, lower end MVFR and spotty IFR will be more prevalent across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Rain showers activity will increase throughout the day Thursday, with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening due to diurnal heating and lake breeze boundaries. As such, expect brief/local restrictions dropping sites down to MVFR at times.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and afternoon/evening thunderstorms with local/brief restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Moderate easterlies on Lake Ontario will continue to produce choppy conditions today through this evening, especially on the west half of the lake, though winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Relatively light winds are expected Thursday and Thursday night.
Winds will become south/southwesterly Friday through Saturday and increase, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Saturday due to a cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisory conditions may continue through Sunday behind the cold front with moderate westerlies.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.