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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 351 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers in the morning, then a slight chance of light snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light snow showers in the evening, then a chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 280850 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION

High amplitude troughing in residence today, lending to a period of deeper layer northwest flow that ensures another day of well below average temperatures. 850 mb temperatures projected to bottom out in the -16c range early day, with little recovery through the heating cycle. This will support highs mainly in the upper 20s. Standard diurnal uptick in gustiness to around 25 mph. Some early day single digit wind chill readings peaking in the teens this afternoon.
Backing low level flow with time will draw the southern lake Michigan moisture plume back across the area through the day.
Moisture depth lacks at this stage to suggest a more organized response, but pockets of light snow showers or flurries remain plausible given a moist layer still fixated within the dgz.
Potential for some minor accumulation focused over the thumb and northern Saginaw valley region as ongoing lake moisture flux off northern lake Huron may allow a few streamers to survive the downstream trek into the area.

Pattern of warm air advection will emerge tonight immediately downstream of a low amplitude wave on pace to traverse the northern great lakes late tonight and early Wednesday. Brief period of meaningful forced ascent via a combination of moist isentropic ascent and dcva set to accompany this height fall center across northern and central lower Mi. Forecast trajectory will position areas generally along/north of the I-69 corridor favorably to witness a brief period of light snow development. Main window centered between 09z and 15z Wednesday morning. Accumulation potential capped at half inch or less given limited residence time and overall intensity. Advective process struggles to gain greater traction Wednesday amidst the ongoing height falls and lack of greater depth to southwest winds. Temperatures still solidly below average.

Increasing southwest flow within the background of building large scale upper heights will translate into greater warming through the column Thursday. This occurs as attention turns to both a northern stream wave shearing across the northern great lakes and a deeper southern stream wave ejecting into the southern plains. The former will effectively draw an attendant cold front into lower Michigan sometime late Thursday into Thursday night. Moisture quality will initially remain modest along the advancing frontal slope, but improving northward moisture transport downstream of the southern feature may eventually intersect the boundary and offer some rain potential by Thursday night. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably for Friday, as the model solution space works to resolve trajectory and magnitude of the system ejecting out of the plains as it relates to positioning of the frontal zone. This offers some difference yet in projected moisture quality, thermal profile and placement of the greatest ascent. Outgoing forecast will maintain a predominant rain precipitation type at this stage, acknowledging there remains a subset of the ensemble solution space that carries a colder scenario with snow/mix as a ptype and some solutions that hold the bulk of the precipitation to the south.

MARINE

Wind direction shifts to the northwest this morning as a reinforcing shot of cold air works in from the north. This maintains the gusty conditions over the central Great Lakes with scattered to numerous snow showers. Probability for gales remains low today, but gusts to 25 to 30 knots can be expected especially over central and southern Lake Huron. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters through this afternoon. Winds taper off slightly from late afternoon into the evening leaving relatively quieter conditions tonight ahead of a clipper system set to track in on Wednesday. A strong low-level jet will precede this system with gusty southwest winds strengthening to around 25 to 30 knots for a brief period Wednesday morning. Saginaw Bay stands a chance to see an hour or so of gusts to 35 knot gales, but will forego a watch at this stage due to the expected brevity of any such gusts. Milder air works in later Wednesday with southwest winds remaining gusty to 20 to 25 knots. This pattern holds through Thursday before the next cold front moves through Thursday night, shifting winds back to the northwest for the late week.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1214 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

AVIATION...

The single band of lake effect snow has been weakening the past hour in response to the deep trough axis swinging through Southeast Michigan. The band will continue to weaken as it slowly pushes southward. Uncertainty exists late tonight with regards to how much clearing will push southward into the region. Will maintain a more pessimistic ceiling forecast given continued cyclonic flow with trajectories off of the western Great Lakes.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet. Some breaks possible overnight.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ442-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ444.

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