Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garden City, ID

FXUS65 KBOI 230923 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 323 AM MDT Fri May 23 2025

SHORT TERM
Today through Sunday night...One more Pacific upper trough, along the northwest coast early this morning, before strong ridging and significant warming Saturday through Memorial Day. The trough will pass through our CWA later today and this evening and affect mainly southeast Oregon with a 30-50 percent chance of showers and 10-20 percent chance of non-severe thunderstorms. The Blue Mountains in Oregon and the Boise Mountains in Idaho will have smaller chances (10-20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms. Valleys should get through the day without being rained on. After the trough exits east, an upper ridge will build strongly northward over the interior western US bringing warming and drying to all areas, with max temps reaching 85-90 degrees in the southern valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s elsewhere on Sunday. Late in the day, however, another Pacific trough will reach the coast and bring a 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms to Harney and Baker Counties. After the heat and dryness of Sunday afternoon, these thunderstorms may develop strong downdraft winds. Storms may even get into the west-central Idaho Mountains Monday night, but weaker.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...A ridge of high pressure that brought warming and drying conditions will begin to break down on Monday, with a deep upper level trough moving in on Monday afternoon. This system will bring some form of precipitation, gusty winds, and likely thunderstorms to the area by Monday afternoon, with the potential for heavier precipitation over higher terrain through Tuesday afternoon.
Models differ on the evolution of the trough through our region, with some solutions showing it weakening rapidly as it moves into the Intermountain West, and other members showing it tilting and becoming a cut-off low over the state on Tuesday.

Slight model agreement exists on an expansive upper level ridge building into southern Canada by Wednesday-Thursday, which would bring hot temperatures and dry conditions over our region. However, model uncertainty remains as we get into the latter part of the work week. Large differences remain in the pattern evolution on Thursday and Friday, but there is a low chance of precipitation each day due to monsoonal moisture or weak shortwave trough passages.
Show more