Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lowville, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A southern stream mid level trough will move east into the Ohio Valley through Saturday. Several weak waves of low pressure will ripple east along a stalled frontal zone across Ohio and Pennsylvania, supporting more organized rain to the south of our region. The northern edge of the rain will advance northward into the Southern Tier and continue through the first half of Saturday before retreating back southward Saturday afternoon.

A little farther north, high-res guidance continues to suggest another east-west oriented band of showers will develop from late evening into the overnight roughly along the NYS Thruway. This smaller scale band of showers, if it materializes, will end by around daybreak Saturday. The best chance of measurable rain in Buffalo and Rochester for the weekend will be with this overnight band of showers, with mainly dry weather expected thereafter.

Another mid-level warm frontal segment will generate clouds and a few light sprinkles across the North Country this evening.

Saturday night, once again the more organized rain will stay south and east of our area. A few spotty showers are still possible across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, otherwise dry weather is expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will slowly shrink eastward into Quebec as a stalled frontal boundary remains across the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday into Monday night. Despite broad low pressure tracking across the boundary, the high should suppress much the precipitation potential across much of the forecast area through the period with generally seasonable temperatures prevailing.
Scattered showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the interior areas at times, particularly in the Southern Tier during peak heating in the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A more noticeable pattern change heading into the midweek timeframe as a phasing shortwave pattern over the Upper Midwest causes a deeper, more robust trough to be carved out across the Great Lakes.
This system will also cause the stalled boundary over the Ohio Valley to finally lift back northward as a warm front which is expected to move through the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. The increase in lower-level jet forcing, moisture, and instability in the warm sector behind this front could set the stage for a rather active period of weather between Wednesday and Thursday. This said, the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming trough and associated sfc low remain in question at this range and thus uncertainty is high in the details and overall potential for more robust convection. Confidence is higher in a brief warmup courtesy of the encroaching front, with widespread temps in the 80s expected by Wednesday afternoon.

Temps and chances for showers/thunderstorms should both be lower by the end of the week once the system passes through the region.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The region is situated between an area of deep moisture across the Ohio Valley and an area of frontogenesis across northern Lake Ontario this evening. Showers will move into western NY, while showers associated with a warm frontal zone across the North Country will mainly stay dry tonight. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR across western NY through Saturday morning. The low stratus may intersect some of the higher terrain as well with hilltop fog and mountain obscuration. CIGS will trend down in this area as well, but should bottom out in the lower end VFR range.

Saturday, showers across the Southern Tier will gradually retreat back southward, with most areas becoming dry by mid to late afternoon. CIGS/VSBY will also improve back to VFR during the afternoon. Farther north, expect mainly dry weather and VFR from the NYS Thruway northward.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
High pressure will build slowly east across Quebec tonight through Sunday while several waves of low pressure ripple along a stalled frontal zone across Ohio and Pennsylvania. The pressure gradient between these features will maintain northeast winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Sunday, with a moderate chop on both lakes.

High pressure will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday, with winds veering southeasterly and weakening on both Lakes. The weakening and now offshore flow component will allow waves to subside, with little to no chop expected for the start of the new work week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.