Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reedsport, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 231014 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 314 AM PDT Fri May 23 2025

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...

Overview:

Relatively quiet conditions are expected through the end of week, but we will see precipitation chances increase on Sunday as an upper level system impacts the region. This will lead to showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. This is of course over the holiday weekend, so anyone with outdoor plans should have a plan in place for lightning. Not expecting severe weather at this time, but a couple storms could be strong with lightning and gusty winds as the main threats. Thereafter, warm conditions expected through mid-week with Wednesday potentially having highs around 90 for westside areas. For Medford, this would be the first 90 degree day this year.

Further Details:

In the upper levels, we will be under mostly zonal flow through today with a transition to ridging on Saturday. This ridge will be in place until Sunday at which point an upper trough and associated front will begin impacting the region. This open wave will have most of the dynamics north of our area, but the base of the trough will slide over the forecast area through Monday. The best chance for thunderstorms will be on Sunday as MUCAPE values are the highest albeit only a few hundred J/kg to upwards near 500 J/kg. Much less instability expected on Monday, but cannot rule out a thunderstorm on this day. Both of these days could produce lightning and gusty winds with any storms that form. Since its Memorial Day weekend, expecting a lot of outdoor activities, and anyone with outdoor plans should have a plan in place for thunderstorm activity. Bulk shear values are not overly impressive, so not expecting storms to maintain long enough for hail production. However, DCAPE values are progged to be around 1000-1300 J/kg which seems reasonable given the inverted-v sounding profiles. These values could easily produce wind speeds around 45 to 55 mph with any downburst through evaporative cooling processes. This threat will be highest Sunday for eastside areas where DCAPE will be highest between the two days of thunderstorms. Lastly, not expecting a lot of rainfall with these showers, but a few areas could pick upwards near a 0.10" of rainfall.

On Tuesday, another ridge will build in over the forecast area. Then another trough comes through the PacNW beginning on Wednesday.
Before the next front comes through, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the current 7 day forecast. However, not expecting record temperatures. For perspective, Medford's record high temperature for May 28th is 99 degrees and we are forecasting 91 for a high. Another round of precipitation expected late Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, instability values are low to nonexistent, so not expecting thunderstorms through middle of next week, but given the time of year this could change over the coming days.

-Guerrero
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