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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 735 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow, drizzle and rain this morning, then a chance of rain and snow this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow showers likely. Drizzle likely with a chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of drizzle after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.

ANZ100 735 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm northeast winds continue to bring conditions hazardous to small craft early this morning as low pressure passes just outside of the gulf of maine. Winds subside through today while seas remain elevated into this evening with chances for snow showers into tonight. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected on the waters much of the week. A short period of low end small craft winds will be possible Wednesday or Wednesday night.

FXUS61 KGYX 041225 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 725 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Impacts to the morning commute are likely as snow continues across areas under Winter Weather Headlines. Steady precipitation tapers off SW to NE this morning, although there will be renewed chances for snow showers this evening and tonight. A drying trend follows Tuesday with cooler and mostly dry conditions through the balance of the week. Temperatures moderate into the weekend with the next widespread precipitation event arriving late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
725 AM Update...Have mainly fined tuned PoPs to align with latest radar trends and surface observations. Primary band of snow is lifting northeast across central Maine. Behind this primary band of precipitation on radar temperatures are hovering around the freezing mark and surface obs still indicate that light snow or drizzle is occurring so will continue to leave Winter Weather Advisories in place across central NH and SW maine as slick travel will remain possible through the next couple of hours.

Previously...

Winter storm continues across the area this early morning with offshore low pressure becoming the dominant system. Main concern moving into the morning commute will be hazardous travel due to snow covered roads and snowfall rates possibly exceeding 1 inch per hour from the time of this writing through 8 AM. The 00Z HRRR continues to show the highest probabilities for these heavy snowfall rates from the eastern White Mountains of NH into the mountains and foothills of Maine and then into the Capital District of Maine.
Storm total snowfall amounts have not changed much from the previous forecast cycle with another 4 to 8 inches of snow forecast for zones within the Winter Storm Warning and 1 to 4 inches for zones within the Winter Weather Advisory. There have not been any changes to the going Winter Weather Headlines that are scheduled to expire from SW to NE from mid morning until early this afternoon as steady precipitation ends.

Latest radar shows the back edge of steady precipitation moving NE across southern NH while hi res guidance suggest a developing surface trough will limit the NE progression of this back edge over the next several hours. Temperatures are near the freezing mark along an arcing line from KPWM to KCON to KLEB with mid 30s observed south of this line. As steady precipitation comes to an end there may be periods of drizzle and pockets of freezing drizzle along this line where temperatures are near freezing.

The first short wave responsible for the periods of moderate to heavy snow early this morning will exit Downeast early this afternoon while another short wave will approach from the eastern Great Lakes this evening. This may limit the break snow across the mountains and eastern zones while southern NH and SW Maine may see a break in precipitation for several hours from this morning into early this afternoon. This approaching short wave will interact with the surface trough bringing renewed chances for snow showers later this evening with more details below.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Hi res guidance has been suggesting that an inverted trough will provide a focus for additional accumulating snow mainly somewhere along coastal Maine extending back into the mountains.
Some solutions suggest that there could be localized areas of moderate snow accumulations near the coast, although confidence is low where this will occur if it does manifest. Have mainly introduced a broad brush of higher PoPs across western Maine tonight after PoPs drop off this afternoon. Current forecast brings an additional widespread 1-2 inches of snow tonight that could bring an additional round of slick travel for the Tuesday morning commute.

The 00z model suite is in good agreement that the inverted trough will exit the coast of Maine Tuesday morning for a drying trend and breaks in the cloud cover. Conditions will be mostly dry Tuesday afternoon with temperatures ranging from the 20s north to 30s south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A long wave trough will linger over the region Tuesday night.
This will allow for a chance of snow showers near the coastline in the vicinity of a weak inverted trough as low pressure gradually intensifies and passes south of the region on Wednesday. A weak ridge of high pressure will cross the region on Thursday with temperatures continuing in the 20s north to lower 30s south.

00Z operational models and ensemble solutions remain in relatively good agreement bringing a warm front towards New England on Friday. Low pressure will likely cross through Canada during this period with an unsettled pattern as a front remains draped over or near the region through the weekend.

A stronger area of low pressure will track towards the Northeast late in the weekend. This system is initially looking to be warm and wet, however this may very well change in the upcoming days similar to our current situation in the near term portion of the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...IFR to LIFR will dominate across the area through this morning in low cigs, snow across central and northern areas along with RASN or DZ across southern areas. Conditions may improve mid morning into the afternoon before lowering cigs and SHSN develop again tonight. Conditions improve to VFR Tuesday.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected Tuesday night through Thursday. A warm front approaches the region on Friday with lowering ceiling reducing conditions to developing IFR.

MARINE
Short Term...Low pressure tracking south of Nova Scotia today will bring NE winds gusting to 25 kts through day break with these winds subsiding through the rest of today. Seas will remain elevated enough to continue SCA conditions along the outer waters into this evening. Seas subside tonight into Tuesday while there may be periods of snow showers over the waters tonight.

Long Term...Conditions will likely remain below SCA thresholds through the extended period. However, low pressure exiting south and east of the region may allow wind gusts to approach 25 kt Wednesday and Thursday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ018-019-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ025>028.
NH...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ001- 002-004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NHZ003-005>010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.

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Back Cove
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Mon -- 04:00 AM EST     7.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM EST     1.94 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     8.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:35 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     Moonrise
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Back Cove, Maine, Tide feet

Cliff Island
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Mon -- 03:56 AM EST     7.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:50 AM EST     2.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:00 PM EST     8.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:27 PM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cliff Island, Luckse Sound, Maine, Tide feet

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