Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sheboygan, WI

UPDATE
Issued 445 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Low pressure is moving into western North Dakota early this morning. A diffuse warm front extends east-southeast of the low/toward the general southern Wisconsin vicinity, with southwesterly winds becoming established in its wake. Continued east- northeast progress of the surface low will pull the warm front toward the U.P. of Michigan today, allowing for warm advection to establish across all of southern Wisconsin. Thus continue to anticipate well-above normal high temperatures areawide, with most locations away from the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline climbing to or above the 80 degree mark. Did nudge high temps up a tick given anticipated mostly sunny skies. Current forecast falls just short of the record at Madison (84 in 1938), but will need to watch trends into today.

Quigley

SHORT TERM
Issued 105 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Overnight through Sunday:

The area of middle to high clouds will gradually push northeast of the area overnight. Southeast winds will gradually shift southward overnight as well, as the warm front moves northward.
Lows should drop into the middle 50s over most of the area.

Gusty south winds are expected Saturday across the area, within a tight pressure gradient. Clouds associated with the remnants of Isaias should push northward into at least southeast Wisconsin by later in the day. This may hold back high temperatures a bit, depending on how long it takes for them to move into the area. These clouds should move east of the area by later Saturday night.

Very warm highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected, with 925 mb temperatures of 20 degrees Celsius or more. Winds should also turn more south southeast near Lake Michigan in the afternoon, which may hold down highs there as well. The record highs are 84 degrees at Milwaukee and Madison for Saturday.

Winds should weaken somewhat on Sunday, as the pressure gradient weakens. This should allow for more southeasterly winds near Lake Michigan, which may limit highs in the middle to upper 70s there. Highs should reach around 80 degrees over the rest of the area, which remains very warm for this time of year.

Wood

LONG TERM
Issued 105 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Sunday night through Friday:

Warm air advection on southwest winds should occur Sunday night into Monday across the area, ahead of the weakening low pressure system and southeastward-moving cold front. 925 mb temperatures may rise into the 22 degree Celsius level, which may allow for highs into the lower 80s or perhaps higher. The record highs for Monday are 83 degrees at Milwaukee and Madison.

The low and cold front may sag southeastward into the area later Monday or more likely Monday night, then to the southeast on Tuesday. Dew points may rise into the lower to middle 60s Monday ahead of the front, with some mean layer CAPE developing per forecast soundings. Deep layer bulk shear values are modest, so will need to monitor later Monday into Monday night for chances for showers and thunderstorms. Too early to say if any stronger storms may occur, but it will bear watching over the next few days.

High pressure moving in behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday should bring a brief period of quiet weather to the area, with cooler but still mild temperatures.

Trends for later next week remain uncertain, with some ensembles showing the potential for active weather and others less so.
This will depend on the track of the strong low pressure system and associated 500 mb trough shifting southeast across south central to southeast Canada. For now, kept the 20 to 50 percent chances for showers at times through the latter portions of next week. Ensemble members still hint at a return to more seasonable and cooler temperatures by the end of next week and into next weekend.

Wood

AVIATION
Issued 445 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR flight categories prevail through the period at all aerodromes. LLWS remains a possibility through daybreak near FL020, with mentions continuing through ~14Z in the coming 12Z forecast. The remains of the former Hurricane Isaias will move into the Tennessee Valley today, with SCT to BKN cirrus near FL250 possible during the afternoon hours at all terminals.
South-southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains. The low level jet will increase once more across the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, bringing additional LLWS potential from UES-SBM and points west into the predawn hours. Have accounted for this potential in the coming 12Z forecast.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 105 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

High pressure around 30.2 inches will continue to push east overnight. Winds will become more southerly overnight, as low pressure around 29.2 inches develops over the Northern Plains.

Expect winds to increase for Saturday, with southerly gusts up to 30 knots at times through early Sunday morning. A few southerly gale force gusts are possible across the northern portions of the lake Saturday afternoon and evening. No gale headlines are anticipated at this time.

A Small Craft Advisory is in now in effect through early Sunday morning for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan north of Wind Point. Building waves from increasing south to south southeast winds are expected during this period.

The main low pressure system weakens to around 29.6 inches, as it lifts from Ontario into the James Bay region. This will drag a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes later Sunday into Monday, easing southerly winds before shifting more westerly then northerly later Monday into Tuesday.

Could see a round of gusty north winds Monday night into Tuesday across the region behind the cold frontal passage. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday into Tuesday night over the nearshore waters. Winds will gradually ease through the middle of the week, as another high pressure system around 30.2 inches builds across the Upper Great Lakes region.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643 until 7 AM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645 until 1 AM Sunday.