Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gardiner, OR

AVIATION
29/18z TAFs...IFR/LIFR low clouds and fog persist late this morning in the valleys west of the Cascades, along the coast and also along portions of Highway 97 (north of Chiloquin) and the Christmas Valley. Conditions should improve to VFR in most areas this afternoon, but some places could hang onto MVFR ceilings into the afternoon, especially at the coast. A weak disturbance will move in from the north tonight with an IFR/MVFR mix. Isolated showers are also possible, highest probability from the coast to interior Douglas County (including Roseburg), in the mountains and across the north from late this evening into early Sunday morning. Areas of IFR/LIFR valley fog are expected to form again overnight into Sunday morning. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 827 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/

UPDATE...Issued a dense fog advisory for portions of the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys, as well as the lower Klamath River Valley until 11 am PST for visibilities 1/4 of a mile or less. With temperature near or below freezing, travelers, bicyclists and pedestrians should be aware of potential slick spots on surfaces. We also issued a freezing fog advisory for portions of northern Klamath/Lake counties along Highway 97 north of Chiloquin and also Highway 31 near Silver Lake/Christmas Valley through 11 am PST. Reduced visibility and freezing conditions could make for hazardous travel this morning there. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/

DISCUSSION...There is little change from the previous forecast issuance, yesterday afternoon. Also, there will be an above average day-to-day consistency in weather conditions through Thursday, and possibly beyond.

We will remain in a north-northwest flow aloft with a series of weak or very weak, low-impact "inside slider" weather disturbances moving through over the top of a semi-permanent upper ridge that will stay parked off the West Coast (out near 140W).
These disturbances are timed for late this evening into early Sunday morning, Monday night into Tuesday night (with a focus on the day-time hours of Tuesday), and Thursday night into Friday.
Much of our area will remain dry Today through Thursday, with the highest probability of precipitation from any of the disturbances at the coast and across the northern portions of Douglas and Klamath counties.

Tonight's system could produce a dusting of snow for the Cascades from Lake of the Woods northward, with snow levels dropping from around 5500 feet later this evening to around 4000 feet with the last flakes around sunrise on Sunday. The probability of receiving a measureable amount in the Rogue Valley has diminished, but the slight chance mention remaining in the forecast looks appropriate.
There is also a slight chance of precipitation for Lake County given its closer proximity to the passing trough, but most of Klamath, Siskiyou, and Modoc counties are expected to remain dry.

The long term portion of the previous discussion is still valid and follows below.

Another weak disturbance arrives in the NNW flow aloft across the PacNW Monday night into Tuesday night. This one could cause an uptick in afternoon N-NW breezes Tuesday, especially over the higher terrain and east side. Again, precip chances look low with slight chance to chance PoPs, highest over the mountains, but also in the north and over the east side.

A strong upper high will then set up near 40N and 140W around mid next week. This should provide dry weather Wednesday/Thursday as upper trough energy settles into California/Great Basin. The source of greatest uncertainty in the 12z models and ensembles for late next week into next weekend is the development (or not) of low pressure near the Great Basin/California and its progression (or not) next Friday to next Sunday. Some solutions (mostly ECMWF)
favor consolidation of energy (upper low) near California Wednesday with retrogression offshore and even the potential of a rex block (high over low) off the West Coast by late next week.
This would displace the northern branch jet farther north and keep our area more under the influence of the upper ridge (thus drier, milder conditions). Weaker and more progressive solutions (mostly GEFS, but also CMC) suggest potential for northern branch energy to remain nearby late in the week (cooler, wetter). The trend in the recent guidance has been for a drier solution during this time period and this follows the CPC 6-10 day forecast, which shows odds favoring below normal precip and above normal temps for SW Oregon and norCal Dec 4-8. Current forecast for next Friday brings an increase in PoPs, especially Cascades north and west, but this will likely change based on the scenarios mentioned above. Keep checking back for updates! -Spilde

AVIATION
29/12z TAFs
Coastal and valley LIFR/IFR will reach peak coverage around sunrise, then gradually diminish in coverage with improvement into the afternoon and early evening. VFR is expected to be the predominant condition, but areas of MVFR are expected to linger at and near the coast. Afterwards, a weak disturbance will bring a IFR/MVFR mix with a chance of showers along the coast and into Douglas County (including Roseburg) from late this evening into early Sunday morning. Meantime, patches of IFR valley fog are expected to form elsewhere overnight into Sunday morning.

MARINE
Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, November 29, 2025
Winds and seas will be at a minimum this morning. Northerly winds then increase, with speeds approaching Small Craft Advisory strength south of Cape Blanco as early as Sunday afternoon. North winds are expected to further strengthen on Monday into Tuesday, but are most likely to remain at Small Craft Advisory strength while a long period west swell builds in the waters. The long period swell is expected to peak at 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 19 seconds. Advisory level conditions remain possible in the southern waters at mid-week into Thursday.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 AM PST Saturday, November 29, 2025...There could be a brief period of a low sneaker wave threat this afternoon as a 3-5 ft swell @ 14-16 seconds builds to a peak (6-9 ft @ 14 seconds) this evening. The higher risk for sneak waves, however, is expected on Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon. A distant storm will create a long period swell, and buoy guidance maintains the potential for this swell to bring a high sneaker wave threat.

Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect to highlight this risk for Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18 seconds Monday afternoon and evening, so while seas will be steep, high surf conditions are not expected at beaches. If you have plans to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ024-026.

Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ028>031.

CA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.