Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gardiner, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 100515 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1015 PM PDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs

DISCUSSION
Radar echos are increasing in density this late morning ahead of this cut off low. We'll see more thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes.
Latest forecasts still showing 500 J/kg of convective available potential energy for storm updrafts based off of the KMFR HRRR forecast sounding. Upper level shear also looks pretty good for our forecast area, so the 5-10% marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for areas west of the Cascades seems on point from SPC this afternoon.

The cutoff low will nudge close to shore overnight, although conditions will dry out away from the coast as an embedded shortwave rotates around the low. Models seem fairly confident in this and the probability of precipitation drops to 5% overnight for locations away from the coast. We'll likely see more valley stratus and some patchy fog fill in if we clear out enough overnight.

By Friday, the focus remains on showers and thunderstorms as the cutoff low moves further inland. It looks like the chances for severe thunderstorms are lower compared to Thursday, although the coverage of thunderstorms and the probability of lightning within 20 km of any point will remain elevated(30-60%) depending on exact location.

This cutoff low will eventually become caught up in the upper level flow and move farther east ahead of the next trough in the Pacific. The main impact to our forecast area will be the continued chance of precipitation and the chances for some snow on the mountains. This won't be a massive snow event, but the higher terrain(6000ft+) could see 3 to 8 inches of new snow by Sunday evening. The Warner mountains are popping out on our risk maps and those ridges and higher peaks are forecast to see more snow than the Cascades.

Heading into next week, nothing really stood out on the extreme forecast index(EFI). There are some hints at another trough sliding down the north west, which would lead to cooler more unstable air and more showers for the forecast region. The probability of precipitation increases around Tuesday and Wednesday during this time with a 50 to 60 percent chance of precipitation. 10% of the ENS members show the Cascades seeing another 3-6 inches of snow with this northwest flow and cold front around Wednesday. So there is still a chance to get some more snow in the mountains here in early April.
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