Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sheboygan Falls, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:15PM Friday December 13, 2019 1:19 AM CST (07:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:46PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 106 Am Cst Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 knots rising to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of snow through around midnight. Chance of drizzle through the night. Chance of light freezing drizzle and slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of light freezing drizzle in the morning. Chance of drizzle through the day. Chance of snow and slight chance of light freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:201912131000;;274400 FZUS53 KMKX 130707 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-131000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sheboygan Falls, WI
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location: 43.73, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 130527 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1127 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE. The forecast is on track for tnt-Fri.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). Low stratus and light fog north and west of KMSN will gradually expand sewd with a cold frontal passage across srn WI through the night. The low stratus may not reach far se WI until after 09Z. The stratus will initially range from 2.5-4.5 kft but eventually lower to 500-1900 feet. The stratus will then continue for much of Fri-Fri nt. There may be areas of stratus above 3 kft over south central WI from late Fri AM through the afternoon. Another round of very light snow transitioning to light freezing drizzle is possible for Fri nt-Sat.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 934 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019)

UPDATE . Patchy freezing drizzle has been occurring from nrn Sauk into nrn MQT County this evening along and behind the cold front. It is continuing to weaken via radar trends but localized freezing drizzle could linger into the late evening. The cold front over central WI will gradually shift sewd through the night with weak high pressure over the area for Fri. Stratus clouds are expected to continue.

MARINE . Low pressure of 30.0 inches will remain over far northern Lake Michigan tonight and Friday. The winds will continue to diminish through the night. The light winds will then continue through Friday. Strengthening low pressure will track north along the eastern seaboard into New England from Friday night through Saturday night. Meanwhile, high pressure of 30.3 inches will move from Saskatchewan and Manitoba into Wisconsin by Sunday. Elevated northwest winds will develop for Saturday night into Sunday morning, then weakening.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 612 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019)

UPDATE . The band of freezing drizzle from La Crosse toward Green Bay appears to be dissipating as the low level frontogenesis weakens. This is in response to the main shortwave trough moving away from the area along with the pressure falls. A weak cold front will be left in place and will gradually move sewd across srn WI tnt. An area of weak high pressure will settle over srn WI on Fri but not enough subsidence and drying to dissipate the stratus. Relatively mild temps expected for Fri.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . Patchy freezing drizzle will be possible toward central WI for the evening. Otherwise, low stratus will gradually expand sewd across srn WI through the night. The low stratus may not reach far se WI until after 09Z. The stratus will initially range from 2.5-4.5 kft but eventually lower to 600-1900 feet. The stratus will then continue for much of Fri-Fri nt. There may be areas of stratus above 3 kft over south central WI from late Fri AM through the afternoon. Another round of light snow transitioning to freezing drizzle is then expected Fri nt-Sat.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 347 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight and Friday . Forecast confidence is high.

Surface low pressure will track from near La Crosse to Green Bay late this afternoon and evening. Any lingering precip across southern Wisconsin will come to an end early this evening. A trailing cold front will take its time drifting east through the area, likely not pushing east of Milwaukee until about 3-4am Friday. Although air temps are generally above freezing, pavement temps are still below that mark causing any light rain/drizzle to freeze on those surfaces. These concerns should diminish quickly this evening.

High pressure briefly pushes across the area later tonight into Friday. That high weakens and moves off to the east rather quickly. By late afternoon, we may already start to see some light snow push into areas west of Madison. However, much of the area will be dry, though cloudy on Friday.

LONG TERM .

Friday Night through Sunday . Forecast Confidence is Moderate .

A wave with weak-forcing will move over Wisconsin Friday night into Saturday morning. Sufficient saturation aloft should support ice crystals aloft and snow at the onset of precipitation. However, drying of the mid levels as the night progresses will remove ice crystals aloft and amid saturated lower levels, and freezing drizzle will take hold. This precipitation should end during the morning hours on Saturday. Another weak wave will pass by Saturday afternoon and early evening. Light snow looks to be the main precipitation type, but accumulations will likely be around a dusting. Sunday looks to remain dry.

Monday through Thursday . Forecast Confidence is low to Medium .

Models are still uncertain about the track of a significant winter low pressure system that will track across the Midwest. Currently, models are hinting toward the low track remaining well south of Wisconsin bringing the lion's share of snow to the Ohio Valley. This scenario would bring a dusting of snow to our far southeastern counties. Trends will be monitored for any shifts in the low track this weekend. Beyond, the weather pattern looks to be fairly quiet as high pressure and near-normal temperatures will take hold for the rest of the week.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

MVFR CIGS across south central Wisconsin will very slowly push east across the rest of southern Wisconsin later tonight. On Friday, we'll see somewhat of a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS linger across the area. This is due to the very weak wind flow expected through the day. The elevated southerly winds this afternoon will weaken this evening and eventually veer to a light west or northwest flow later tonight and Friday as a cold front drifts through the region.

MARINE .

Low pressure will track from west central Wisconsin to northern Lake Michigan this evening. As a result, look for the strong and gusty south to southwest winds to gradually diminish, becoming rather light by sunrise on Friday. Light winds continue through Friday as high pressure drifts across the region. Low pressure organizes and strengthens to the east of Lake Michigan Friday night and Saturday. Elevated northwest winds arrive on Saturday, approaching small craft advisory levels for the nearshore waters. High pressure builds back in for Sunday, bringing a return to a lighter wind pattern that will continue through Monday. Strong northwest winds return by Tuesday as low pressure once again develops to our south and east.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Davis Friday Night through Thursday . CMiller


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 7 mi19 min NW 7 G 8 37°F 1015.1 hPa (-0.5)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi39 min SSW 2.9 G 6 40°F 1015.6 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 50 mi29 min SSW 8.9 G 11 40°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI4 mi26 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast35°F28°F78%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3NE5CalmW3E3E3S13
G24
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S15S9S9SW16S10S9SW9S6S5SW5SW5CalmCalmW3
1 day agoW12W15
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2 days agoNW7W14
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W11W12W10NW11W12W8W8W9W10W6W9W9W7W9W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.