Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Forestville, MI
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 9:19 PM Moonset 5:06 AM |
LHZ463 Expires:202505140330;;457694 Fzus63 Kdtx 131928 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 328 pm edt Tue may 13 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - An extended period of light southeast winds continues through Wednesday. A large upper low pressure system lifting into the region will bring periods of showers and isolated Thunderstorms during this period. A stronger low organizes over the midwest on Thursday, sending a warm front across the great lakes Thursday night into Friday. A cold front follows on Saturday.
lhz363-462>464-140330- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 328 pm edt Tue may 13 2025
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening - .then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west until early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the north until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 328 pm edt Tue may 13 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lhz363-462>464-140330- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 328 pm edt Tue may 13 2025
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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Area Discussion for Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 131933 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 333 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Above average temperatures persist through the week.
- Scattered showers/thunderstorm chances Wednesday.
- A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday night primarily between 11pm and 3 am. The potential for large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats.
- Cooler and less humid weather is anticipated for next weekend.
DISCUSSION
An axis of deep moisture with connection to the Atlantic and Gulf is in place across Southeast Michigan. The PWAT on the 13.12z DTX raob was 1.40 inches and areawide surface dewpoints are in the 60s. The next few days, through midday Thursday, will be governed by moist adiabatic lapse rates that will bring periodic chances for showers and isolated thunder activity. The most favorable timing for convective development both today and Wednesday will be with daytime heating. Light easterly flow with low LCL heights limits much in the way of convective vigor. It is challenging to offer much temporal or spatial detail to the precipitation forecast as the EPS interquartile range of 24 hr QPF at all locations is less than 0.33 of an inch each of the next few days.
The arrival of the exit region to a strong pacific jet streak will cause geopotential height falls to impact Southeast Michigan Thursday night. Latest indications are that midlevel cooling will occur in advance of the upper level low to result in steep midlevel lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. Recent model solutions have been converging on a UVV signal that suggests the best time period for thunderstorm activity will fall in the 03-07z time window.
Combination of the lapse rates with rich thetae/moisture from the surface to 5.0 kft agl is expected to result in very unstable conditions, CAPES of 2000-3500 J/kg. Despite the late evening to overnight timeframe, it is important to point out that confidence is increasing in this magnitude of instability owing to the lapse rates.
The uncertain aspect of the forecast is to what extent the near surface convective inhibition will erode which will impact both the coverage of activity and the potential for surface based impacts.
0-6km bulk shear magnitude is forecasted to increase to greater than 40 knots Thursday evening resulting in the potential for mesocyclones and supercellular storm organization. Will need to monitor forecast trends as this time period approaches. The latest Swody3 has the majority of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Cool northwest flow is likely for next weekend as deep troughing remains in place over the Great Lakes. Depending on timing of successive cold fronts or lake breeze boundaries, the temperature forecast will be up for revision.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient continues to maintain lighter southeast flow through the midweek period with bouts of isolated to scattered showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms. A warm front will then pass over the Great Lakes late Thursday night into Friday, which will veer wind direction to the southwest and will bring some more elevated wind speeds and gust potential. Additionally, some more organized thunderstorms will be possible along the warm front, centered through Friday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025
AVIATION...
Moisture continues to advect into the region today from southeasterly flow on the north side of the large upper low spinning over TN/KY. CIGs largely lifted out of the IFR from the early part of the day but should hold MVFR through the afternoon before dropping again tonight. Scattered showers are redeveloping at press time and will continue through the afternoon. Will keep SHRA in for the next few hours to cover it without any more defining feature to lock onto for timing. Still an outside shot at an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening but coverage warrants watching and amending later if they look to target a taf site. Fog remains possible late tonight with models advertising combination of IFR CIGs and VSBYs. Showers will be possible again Wednesday as the upper low remains over the region.
For DTW/D21 Convection...
Potential exists for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening and again on Wednesday.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the forecast.
* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2 SM early Wednesday morning.
* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 333 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Above average temperatures persist through the week.
- Scattered showers/thunderstorm chances Wednesday.
- A Slight Risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday night primarily between 11pm and 3 am. The potential for large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats.
- Cooler and less humid weather is anticipated for next weekend.
DISCUSSION
An axis of deep moisture with connection to the Atlantic and Gulf is in place across Southeast Michigan. The PWAT on the 13.12z DTX raob was 1.40 inches and areawide surface dewpoints are in the 60s. The next few days, through midday Thursday, will be governed by moist adiabatic lapse rates that will bring periodic chances for showers and isolated thunder activity. The most favorable timing for convective development both today and Wednesday will be with daytime heating. Light easterly flow with low LCL heights limits much in the way of convective vigor. It is challenging to offer much temporal or spatial detail to the precipitation forecast as the EPS interquartile range of 24 hr QPF at all locations is less than 0.33 of an inch each of the next few days.
The arrival of the exit region to a strong pacific jet streak will cause geopotential height falls to impact Southeast Michigan Thursday night. Latest indications are that midlevel cooling will occur in advance of the upper level low to result in steep midlevel lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. Recent model solutions have been converging on a UVV signal that suggests the best time period for thunderstorm activity will fall in the 03-07z time window.
Combination of the lapse rates with rich thetae/moisture from the surface to 5.0 kft agl is expected to result in very unstable conditions, CAPES of 2000-3500 J/kg. Despite the late evening to overnight timeframe, it is important to point out that confidence is increasing in this magnitude of instability owing to the lapse rates.
The uncertain aspect of the forecast is to what extent the near surface convective inhibition will erode which will impact both the coverage of activity and the potential for surface based impacts.
0-6km bulk shear magnitude is forecasted to increase to greater than 40 knots Thursday evening resulting in the potential for mesocyclones and supercellular storm organization. Will need to monitor forecast trends as this time period approaches. The latest Swody3 has the majority of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.
Cool northwest flow is likely for next weekend as deep troughing remains in place over the Great Lakes. Depending on timing of successive cold fronts or lake breeze boundaries, the temperature forecast will be up for revision.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient continues to maintain lighter southeast flow through the midweek period with bouts of isolated to scattered showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms. A warm front will then pass over the Great Lakes late Thursday night into Friday, which will veer wind direction to the southwest and will bring some more elevated wind speeds and gust potential. Additionally, some more organized thunderstorms will be possible along the warm front, centered through Friday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025
AVIATION...
Moisture continues to advect into the region today from southeasterly flow on the north side of the large upper low spinning over TN/KY. CIGs largely lifted out of the IFR from the early part of the day but should hold MVFR through the afternoon before dropping again tonight. Scattered showers are redeveloping at press time and will continue through the afternoon. Will keep SHRA in for the next few hours to cover it without any more defining feature to lock onto for timing. Still an outside shot at an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening but coverage warrants watching and amending later if they look to target a taf site. Fog remains possible late tonight with models advertising combination of IFR CIGs and VSBYs. Showers will be possible again Wednesday as the upper low remains over the region.
For DTW/D21 Convection...
Potential exists for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon and evening and again on Wednesday.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet through the forecast.
* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2 SM early Wednesday morning.
* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45149 - Southern Lake Huron | 22 mi | 67 min | SE 5.8 | 56°F | 40°F | 0 ft | 29.93 | |
| HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI | 48 mi | 49 min | N 5.1G | 53°F | 55°F | 29.88 | 49°F |
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KP58
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KP58
Wind History Graph: P58
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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