Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:29PM Friday September 18, 2020 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:24AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:202009190815;;014534 Fzus63 Kdtx 181955 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 355 Pm Edt Fri Sep 18 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure near 30.40 inches will move across the western great lakes today bringing breezy conditions for the central great lakes. The high will slowly drift east this weekend delivering quiet marine conditions. Lhz462>464-190815- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 355 pm edt Fri sep 18 2020
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the morning.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then veering to the southeast after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots until early evening...then backing to the south in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 181954 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

DISCUSSION.

Center of surface high pressure is centered over the portions of lake Michigan and northern Lower Michigan this afternoon. The surface high has broad support from upper level confluent flow and deep 950-550mb anticyclonic flow trajectories. Main discussion point for tonight will be on frost potential. Ideal radiative cooling conditions will develop tonight as surface decoupling occurs and winds trend variable this evening. With surface dewpoints currently running in the low to mid 30s and moist/green up conditions lows tonight should remain buoyed in the lower to middle 30s across the area. A few isolated interior locations across northern Saginaw Valley may drop into the upper 20s. Issued a Frost Advisory for the entire CWA from Midnight tonight through 9 AM Saturday

The main narrative throughout this upcoming weekend will be ideal, dry, early Autumn weather for Southeast Michigan. Previous discussion referenced low PWATS throughout the entire weekend. Surface dewpoints will run in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures this weekend will be some 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Dry conditions are expected to persist through the early to middle of next week. There is model signal the longwave will become increasingly more amplified next week. The central Great Lakes appear to be in a favorable position to experience a zonal flow inflection point within the longwave. This is important as it suggests a continued dry southwesterly trajectory. Expecting some movement on high temperatures for next week as current automated values appear to be washed out. Suspect high temperatures will be warmer on a few days next week compared to what is currently being advertised.

MARINE.

Onshore flow will persist through this afternoon as winds begin to diminish through the early evening with conditions falling below small craft criteria. High pressure will continue to build in from the west and will move directly over the central Great Lakes and bring more favorable boating conditions over the weekend with light and variable winds and low wave action.

&

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 137 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

AVIATION .

A rather robust strato-cumulus field, sourced by moisture from Lake Huron, will persist for most of the afternoon. Cloud bases remain elevated (4-5.5 kft range), maintaining VFR conditions at all terminals. Increased northerly wind speeds/gusts a few knots this TAF cycle given morning trends and favorable downward transport of enhanced lower-atmosphere winds. Prevailing speeds will diminish this evening as the controlling high pressure migrates eastward, veering flow toward the northeast. Drier air is then expected on Saturday limiting low cloud development, but passing cirrus can be expected throughout the day with weaker northeast flow.

For DTW . Breezy northerly wind continues to promote north runway operations until this evening with fair-weather cumulus ceiling near 5 kft. Clearer skies and weaker winds are expected overnight and Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ049- 055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421- 441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . SP AVIATION . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi143 min N 18 G 21 54°F 65°F5 ft1026.8 hPa (+0.2)
PSCM4 47 mi83 min N 16 G 21 54°F 1045 hPa (-0.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi53 min NNE 15 G 16 51°F 61°F1026.7 hPa33°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi53 min N 19 G 26 54°F 1025.1 hPa37°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi53 min 56°F 1025.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N14
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G27
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W8
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G24
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G14
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SW11
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S9
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G20
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G20
SW14
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi32 minNNE 6 mi53°F32°F45%1027.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13NE14
G20
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N8
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NE18
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--N9
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N6
1 day agoN17
G26
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6N9
G18
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G15
----5
G18
----4N15
G25
------N11
G17
--3NE10NE16NE14N13N10--
2 days agoSW8SW9
G19
SW6SW8
G18
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G22
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G17
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SW76SW9
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W12
G24
W10
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N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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