Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:16 PM EDT (01:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:52PMMoonset 3:38AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 343 Pm Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest after midnight. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463 Expires:202104230815;;958397 FZUS63 KDTX 221943 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Large sprawling high pressure with 30.20 inch center over the Tennessee Valley will gradually move off the east coast by Saturday morning. Broad area of low pressure 29.80 inches will move east through the Great Lakes this weekend. LHZ463-464-230815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 222330 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 730 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

AVIATION.

Geopotential height rises will support surface ridging across Southeast Michigan during the next 24 hours. Midlevel warming within the 4.0 and 8.0 kft agl layer will lead to SKC overnight. Diurnal heating will lead to altocumulus development at some 7.0 to 8.0 kft agl Friday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

DISCUSSION .

Flurries have come to an end, with dissipating clouds as surface ridge axis slides over southeast Michigan this evening. This will allow winds to go calm/very light, and with current dew pts in the upper teens-lower 20s, temperatures falling off toward freezing just after midnight appears likely. The question becomes will winds be able to stay decoupled, as we get into good low level warm advection pattern overnight. 12z NAM/regional GEM suggests southwest winds will develop/kick up around/just before 9z (which appears reasonable with the rather tight pressure gradient), as 925 mb temps of +6 to +8 C move overhead. There is also some a hint of some clouds around or just above 5000 feet which track through with the westerly push. Thus, factoring in all the considerations, will call for mins of 30- 34 degrees on average, but will not be issuing a freezing warning due to the marginal/short lived nature of the freezing temperatures (especially compared to last night with the widespread mins in the 20s).

A good amount of insolation and solid low level southwest flow in place for tomorrow should allow temperatures to reach normal values (lower 60s/around 60) before clouds begin to thicken up late in the day.

Goes R precipitable water (850-700 mb) imagery this afternoon shows moisture surging north through the Plains, with the deeper western Gulf of Moisture moisture entering Texas. Split upper level flow looks to be the rule as we head into the weekend, with the northern stream trough/upper level wave sliding through the northern Great Lakes. The southern low/wave looks to be the main show, but should not make a whole lot more progress north than Tennessee or Kentucky, as convection fires up within the deep moisture over the Gulf Coast States. None-the-less, adequate moisture (PW values 0.75- 1.0) reaching into southern Lower Michigan to support showers on Saturday. Still, being caught into between the two systems, and looking at the 50 member ensembles of the EURO as well as 12z Canadian, far from a slam dunk we will see rain. Whatever rain falls should be fairly light, as we remain stable/positive LI's.

Another healthy shot of cold air will arrive on Sunday behind the northern stream wave, with 850 mb temps advertised to drop into the negative low-mid single numbers. Well mixed boundary layer Sunday, likely supporting northwest wind gusts around 30 MPH. Today we reached around 35 mph, but that was helped out by the flurry activity/inverted V soundings.

Monday morning min temperatures look to bottom near the freezing mark once again as ridge axis extending from Ontario/Quebec high slides through.

A significant warmup is then progged for early next week as upper level ridge builds east of the Mississippi River. The Great Lakes region will reside on the outer edge of the Ridge and within the instability/moisture axis, which will support a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with upper level energy over Four Corners region eventually kicking out a low, which will probably arrive in the mid week period (Wednesday-Thursday), supporting a high chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE .

Expansive area of high pressure over the center of the nation will slide to east coast by Saturday morning. This will keep a predominately southwesterly flow through Friday night. A broad area of weak low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Saturday bringing showers and a more southerly wind. Winds veer back northwesterly Saturday night and increasing as the system moves to the east.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi76 min S 5.8 G 7.8 38°F 37°F2 ft1015.7 hPa (-0.6)
PSCM4 47 mi16 min S 8.9 G 9.9 38°F 1033.9 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi46 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 45°F1014 hPa20°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi46 min 41°F 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi21 minSW 3 mi40°F23°F51%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN14N15N15
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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