Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:22PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:46 AM EDT (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:38PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201908192015;;869870 Fzus63 Kdtx 190757 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 357 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.00 inches, will expand from the upper midwest this morning into lower michigan this afternoon. This high will move across the eastern great lakes tonight, then into the mid atlantic on Tuesday, strengthening to 30.10 inches. A cold front is forecast to drop into the northern great lakes Tuesday night before advancing across the southern great lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong canadian high pressure will then expand across the region Thurs and Friday in the wake of this front. Lhz462>464-192015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 357 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
Today..West winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the south in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west late in the morning...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191036
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
636 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Aviation
Remnant low level moisture and nocturnal cooling has led to the
development of an ifr and lifr stratus fog deck from generally ptk
south into portions of metro detroit early this morning. This
stratus has been attempting to expand northward toward fnt but
appears to be hindered by the iris hills. Diurnal mixing will erode
this stratus fog this morning, with the lingering moisture
developing a sct to bkn CU field; based in the 3500 to 4000 ft range
based on latest model soundings.

For dtw... .Fog and low stratus has been meandering in the vicinity
of metro early this morning. Can not rule out some of these clouds
pushing back into metro early this am.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 352 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
discussion...

ample low-level moisture trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion,
aided by last evening's precipitation, has allowed for areas of fog
and stratus to begin to develop this morning as high clouds continue
to exit to the east. The upper trough axis associated with
yesterday's active weather is also moving off to the east, allowing
for heights to slowly rebound today. The surface cold front will
drop through the northern part of the CWA this morning and gradually
wash out, bringing in light northwest flow and drier air. Should
still be enough moisture present for a healthy diurnal cumulus field
this afternoon, especially across the south where better moisture
will linger. Midlevel subsidence and negative vorticity advection
will result in weak surface high pressure building in through the
day. Highs today in the low 80s with light winds. Lowered pops
across the south given the lack of forcing, though some instability
looks to leak north of the border and a weak wave passing south of
the indiana ohio border may allow for an isolated afternoon shower
in lenawee or monroe county.

Zonal flow through much of the column will prevent any meaningful
modification of the air mass tonight. Lingering moisture across the
southern CWA may result in fog again late tonight, especially given
the light flow and mostly clear skies.

Warmer air advects in from the west on Tuesday, bringing 850mb temps
back up to the upper teens c. As a result, expect slightly higher
daytime highs in the mid 80s, possibly upper 80s in metro detroit.

Dew points remain elevated near 70 degrees across the south and will
lead to a muggy day with heat indices approaching 90 degrees for
areas along and south of i-96 696. A convectively-induced low will
track into the great lakes late Tuesday night into Wednesday and
bring the next chance for showers and storms. Forcing looks diffuse
and expect a decent cap in place to keep coverage isolated.

A potent midlevel low will drop into the northern great lakes on
Wednesday and push a cold front through the region. Still some
disagreement between models on timing with the ECMWF a bit slower,
but solutions are generally showing a lack of moisture that may lead
to just some isolated to widely scattered convection ahead of the
front Wednesday afternoon. The front will usher in a much cooler and
drier air mass that will take residence over the area for the late
week into the weekend. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s can be
expected with no significant storm systems making an impact.

Marine...

winds and waves will decrease during the course of the morning as
weak high pressure expands across the great lakes, eventually
becoming light and variable by afternoon. The high will depart to
the east on Tuesday, allowing light south to southeast winds to
develop in its wake. A cold front will track across the area on
Wednesday. There will be a push of cooler air in the post frontal
environment late Wednesday into Thursday, leading to an increase in
the north-northwest winds across the lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Tf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 22 mi47 min NNW 9.7 G 12 69°F 71°F2 ft1015.6 hPa (+2.5)
PSCM4 47 mi47 min NNW 5.1 G 8 70°F 1034.2 hPa (+2.4)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi47 min N 7 G 8.9 69°F 73°F1016.4 hPa (+2.4)59°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi47 min NW 4.1 G 9.9 71°F 1016 hPa (+2.0)65°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi47 min 73°F 1016 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi56 minN 0 mi71°F55°F57%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6S75SW8
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SE20SE11S75S5CalmW4W84SW4--SW4----NW10
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34Calm
1 day agoW7W9W7W12
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5W5W5NW5S33S3S3S4S4S5CalmSW5SW6CalmCalm33
2 days ago----E6E9E10E10SE10E6E8E8E7SE7SE3SE4--S4--S56--5SW7SW7--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.