Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Forestville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:49PM Thursday December 5, 2019 2:16 PM EST (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:56PMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ463 Expires:201912052115;;316299 Fzus63 Kdtx 051403 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 903 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure, 29.30 inches, is moving across southeast across ontario. High pressure of 30.00 will build into the area on Thursday. Lhz462>464-052115- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 903 am est Thu dec 5 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the morning...then becoming south 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the morning...then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon building to 5 to 7 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain in the late morning and early afternoon. Rain likely until early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely. Snow likely in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ463


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestville, MI
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location: 43.74, -81.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 051745 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1245 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

AVIATION.

Low-level westerly flow backing west-southwest will continue to maintain bkn/ovc cloud deck through the afternoon and evening with cloud bases generally holding between 3-5kft. Brief periods of MVFR possible across KFNT up to KMBS. Passage of a low pressure system set to travel across northern lower Michigan this evening and overnight will produce rapidly changing wind direction starting with southeast flow following the passage of a warm front, quickly veering to the west and northwest through the morning as a cold front drapes behind the low. Forcing from the front and post-frontal cold air advection to lower cloud bases overnight to MVFR, with ceiling holding on through the late morning. High pressure to then fill in from the Midwest Friday afternoon which will gradually clear cloud cover through the later afternoon hours. Clipper system to glance northern lower Michigan overnight which may bring brief period of snow showers to KMBS (and possibly mixed with rain), however, new model output suggests snow may stay just northeast of the terminal. Will maintain prob group until confidence increases.

For DTW . Low-end chance for rain showers late tonight and early Friday morning following the passage of a warm front, between 05- 10Z. Confidence too low to include in prevailing group.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceiling aob 5000 ft this afternoon. Moderate this evening as flow turns more southwesterly.

* High confident to see all rain as dominate p-type if precipitation materializes.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 422 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

DISCUSSION .

Snow showers will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity this morning as mid-level northwest flow weakens and backs zonally from an upper level trough pivoting toward the north Atlantic. This will effectively cut off the lake enhanced moisture corridor which persisted well into the overnight hours, coincident with an axis of favorable DPVA. Mid-level vapor imagery aptly illustrates the forcing transition over the eastern counties where the back edge of the current shower activity continues to erode.

Dry air advection with isentropic downglide will increase dewpoint depressions in the 850-700 mb layer for the afternoon hours. Compressional warming from elevated anticyclonic flow will contribute to the development of an inversion layer which will help limit low cloud depths. Skies remain mostly cloudy for much of today with only slight surface temperature increases owing to a muted diurnal curve. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 30s once again. Dry afternoon conditions give way to increasing PoPs for the evening and overnight segments as an Albert Clipper descends on central Lower Michigan. Moderate confidence persists in keeping the bulk of the precip north of the M-59 corridor given strong model consensus regarding track and intensity as the surface low is driven along by a deepening shortwave. Precip type remains more uncertain given warm near-surface layer temperatures, but forecast soundings do suggest nearly all snow north of I-69 while a rain-snow mix is plausible along the southern fringe of the precip shield. As far as accumulations go, most areas that do see pure snowfall will end up with around a half inch. One inch totals are possible for Huron and Sanilac counties.

The low will race eastward overnight reaching Toronto by daybreak. Its assoicated cold front will be dropping south into northern OH/IN setting up a stretch of northwest flow for SE MI as heights build ahead of an anticyclonic circulation encroaching from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Although conditions will be dry, a jet streak intersection will lead to a period of gusty winds (20-25 mph range) during the afternoon assuming the mixed layer profile remains marginally supportive. One potential benefit of these windier conditions will be that some of the driest air aloft in nearly a week should transfer down helping scour out what has been a nearly continuous stratus deck. High temperatures will be more-or-less unchanged on Friday, but skies will become partly to mostly sunny during the afternoon/evening before better clearing overnight helps promote radiational cooling with lows dropping into the mid 20s, and perhaps the upper teens for the Tri-Cities region.

Saturday brings the arrival of additional height rises and even drier low levels prior to sub-850 mb winds backing southwesterly. This will usher in a major thermal shift with temperatures rising about 10 degrees above normal as highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the 40s once WAA ramps up throughout the column. Solid chances exist for widespread rainfall along a sharp baroclinic zone as higher ThetaE air pumps northward along the warm conveyor-belt originating near the Gulf. An arctic front then pushes through on Tuesday ahead of a sub-500 mb 2 PVU anomaly trapping a polar airmass across the Great Lakes through the latter half of next week. Low temperatures in the teens Tuesday and Wednesday night certainly seem reasonable, even this far out.

MARINE .

Fresh northwest wind with gusts to near-gales through early this morning will steadily diminish as high pressure builds into the area from the south. Waves along the exposed nearshore waters of the Thumb will follow suit, falling below small craft advisory criteria by late morning. Conditions will remain seasonably unsettled with episodes of elevated southwesterly and northwesterly flow associated with regular passage of weak cold fronts. No significant events for the next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . AM DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . JVC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSCM4 47 mi76 min WNW 8 G 14 31°F 1034.2 hPa (+1.0)
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi46 min NW 8.9 G 14 31°F 35°F1015.8 hPa21°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 62 mi46 min WNW 8.9 G 13 34°F 1015.6 hPa20°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 64 mi46 min 35°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI59 mi25 minWNW 10 mi32°F19°F59%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KP58

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW7SW6SW7SW65SW7SW5W74W6
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2 days agoN12NE13
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NE12N9N9N9N5N4W10W4W4W6SW4W45SW5W7
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SW7SW5SW5SW4S4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.