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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 041045 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 545 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023


AVIATION

Low clouds will be troublesome today as lingering surface trough under building mid level ridge helps trap low level moisture today.
A few IFR obs early this morning should not be the norm as most guidance and obs suggest MVFR through the bulk of the period.
Subsidence not very strong to help erode the clouds from the top this afternoon but some indication if it does happen it would be around mbS. Mixed signals for tonight in terms of improving cigs, but looking to the west this morning, there is a wealth of stratus ahead of the clipper that will brush southern MI Tuesday, so will lean pessimistically with cigs until obs suggest otherwise. Winds will be west-northwesterly today until backing more southwest early Tuesday morning.

For DTW...Regarding the clipper Tuesday which falls in the 24-30 hour window of the forecast, the probabilities are too low to include a mention of light snow or flurries at this time as the clipper passes to the south and only brushes southern MI.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 403 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION...

A larger scale deformation axis is stringing out across Southeast Michigan early this morning as multiple shortwaves have been tracking into/through the basal portion of the northeastern NOAM trough. The net result has been a persistence of moist lower tropospheric conditions and continuation of drizzle and light precipitation. Cold advection has been very slow to this point with many locations remaining in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees as of midnight. Modest cold air advection will now more in the way of snowflakes mixing in before precipitation ends completely.

Model data suggests the amalgamation of absolute vorticity will push east of Southeast Michigan by late this morning allowing for differential anticyclonic vorticity advection. This large scale forcing will support weak shortwave ridging aloft and a weak col/surface ridge late this afternoon. The trend in the model soundings is for more moisture and saturation to hold on in the lowest 3.0 kft across all of the area. The soundings show some drying and lowering of stability from 5.0 down to 2.5 kft but overall the signal is very weak in downward vertical motion. Still holding onto a little hope the northern cwa could see some fleeting sunshine this afternoon but background cyclonic flow and this trend in the models suggests it will be tough. Highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with windchills in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

An impressive and deep midlevel trough is forecasted to amplify and deep across Tennessee Valley late Tuesday. No real changes with what has been a stable model trend for a system that will largely track to the south. Still expecting the precipitation to merely brush the region bringing light precipitation chances. Model soundings remain supportive of all snow with any deep saturation and UVVs. The probabilistic guidance continues to highlight the floor/ceiling of this event...time lagged ensemble giving a 12hr probability of 45- 50% for 0.10 inch and the NBM 50th percentile of 24 hr snow accumulation at 0.0 inch or no accumulation. Probably could be better characterized as flurries.

Progressive longwave trough and ridge couplet is anticipated for the middle to end of the weak. Modestly cool conditions again Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 30s, some 2 to 5 degrees below normal. Upper level heights begin to rise Wednesday night leading to a tremendous amount of warm advection. A Clipper is forecasted to dive southeastward just north of Lake Superior and Lake Huron.
Models have brought the bulk of any QPF over Lake Huron to the northeast of the forecast area. There are chance PoPs in the forecast for a mix of rain and snow but light QPF limits an accumulation potential. The narrative then for the end of the week will be mild conditions with temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

MARINE...

Low pressure continues to push further east across the Northeast today allowing for a gradual weakening trend in northwest winds through the day. A brief ridge of high pressure builds in this evening/tonight before a weak clipper system drops into the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes Tuesday. Minimal marine impacts accompany this system as the weak gradient results in northerly winds generally holding under 15kts with light rain-snow showers being confined south of Lake Huron. A warm front tied to low pressure over the Canadian Prairie lifts across the region late Wednesday offering another window for light rain-snow showers. Main impacts instead are strengthening southwesterly flow into Thursday as the region holds between the aforementioned low and broad Southeastern US high pressure. However given the warmer airmass, current expectation is for gusts to hold sub 30kts.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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