Tuesday, October27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Littlejohn Island, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:38PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 11:28 AM EDT (15:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:27PMMoonset 2:57AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1021 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Rest of today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Snow likely with a chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Scattered snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 1021 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. North to northwest winds expected today as high pressure builds in from the west through Wednesday. The next low pressure system will track eastward to the south of cape cod Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Littlejohn Island, ME
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location: 43.78, -70.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 271425 AAB AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1025 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cool high pressure builds into the area today and moves to the east on Wednesday. Expect drier conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. Later this week, low pressure tracks eastward to the south of New England just as an Arctic cold front brings much colder air into the area from the north. Rain is likely to begin in southern areas on Thursday with rain changing to snow on Friday as the temperature cools. This will be the first accumulating snow of the season for many areas. Cold weather lasts through at least Saturday before high pressure shifts east and allows temperatures to slowly rebound.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 1030 AM Update . Made a few changes to mainly the sky cover and temperature curve this morning. Overall the forecast is in good shape with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s north to upper 40s/lower 50s south.


630 PM UPDATE . What I expect was the last band of light rain has exited the coast early this morning, so precipitation chances are on their way down. Made a few adjustments to the forecast based on this idea.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . Winds have already shifted to the northwest across the area this morning and expect cool, dry air to continue moving in from the northwest today. We should even get rid of a good deal of the clouds for at least part of the day today especially over the coastal plain where downsloping conditions aid in mixing in the drier air. Temperatures will be a bit warmer behind the cold front today due to the deeper mixing. Southeast of the mountains the temperature should warm into the 50s, while northwest of the mountains the cold air will pile in and less mixing will occur, keeping temperatures in the low 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the west overnight with calm conditions expected. This would normally set up ideal radiational cooling conditions as winds go calm and the temperature craters toward the dewpoint in the freshly drier air mass. However, we continue with a westerly flow aloft and embedded in that flow we expect a subtle shortwave trough to bring in some clouds and maybe even a few sprinkles to southern New Hampshire overnight. These clouds will be the dominant factor in low temperatures tonight. Areas to the north and east are more likely to stay clear and reach their full potential for cooling . into the low to mid 20s. Further to the south and west, clouds will be more widespread and buoy temperatures in the 30s most of the night. In between is where more uncertainty exists, with the temperature likely falling during the clear periods and holding steady or rising a bit when clouds pass by.

High pressure shifts east on Wednesday with some weak warm advection bringing in some warmer temperatures aloft. We won't be as well mixed on Wednesday as we were on Tuesday, though, with nearly all of the mixing coming as a result of the late October sun. Thus expect temperatures once again in the 40s and 50s for highs with dry conditions expected. Periods of cloudiness will also be around as the warm advection aloft begins.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Overview: Subtle but significant shift in guidance this evening has brought flatter solutions into play and introduced more uncertainty regarding potential snowfall. Chances for measurable snowfall still remain fairly high for late Oct . but guidance seems to falling into two camps . one with just minor measurable snow amounts and another with more significant accumulation.

Impacts: Again the largest impacts of this forecast period revolve around how much and where snow accumulates. Trends this evening were decidedly towards lower snow amounts . but there remains plenty of support for more significant snowfall amounts and there is plenty of time for guidance to trend back in this direction.

Forecast Details: Thu afternoon precip looks to pretty quickly enter SWrn portions of the forecast area. How quickly it spreads N . if at all . remains in question however. The most noticeable thing with guidance this evening is that the forecast appears to be bifurcating . between a nominal snowfall and a more substantial snowfall. In general the deterministic NWP featured a faster Zeta that sneaks off the East Coast ahead of the ejecting upper low . and ahead of the cold air. The result is a more strung out and flatter system . and less QPF. Less QPF means less QPF around when cold air surges into the system from the N. As a result snowfall amounts across guidance is generally lower due to unfavorable overlap between strongest lift and coldest air.

The bifurcation also shows up in ensemble guidance . with the EPS generally more in favor of amplified solutions and the GEFS and CMC more in favor of faster and flatter. That being said . members of all ensembles show some larger snowfall events embedded among lighter events. Fewer and fewer members are showing no snowfall at all. This is again supported by the NBM probabilistic guidance . which has shown chances for measurable snow increase to 60 or 70 percent across the Srn half of the forecast area.

The NBM has also shown chances for 4 to 8 inches of snow . a significant event for late Oct . increase as well albeit still less than 30 percent chance This makes sense to me. as guidance does show cold air rushing into the system late Thu. This scenario would be favorable to flash precip over to heavy snow for a time . and the difference of an hour or two on the earlier side could mean several inches of snow.

Much of this is dependent on the upper air pattern as it evolves when Zeta nears the Gulf Coast. We should have a better idea of this heading into Wed morning . and extra soundings from Gulf forecast offices will ensure it is well sampled.

For now the most favorable overlap of all variables occurs across Srn NH So I have the most snowfall there. generally 1 to 3 inches in the valleys and less as you head towards the Seacoast where there may be more mixing. I also have up to 3 to 5 inches in the higher terrain from the Whites down thru the Monadnocks as colder air will arrive there first.

Beyond this system Fri and Fri night will be some of the coldest air of the season so far. Highs will likely struggle to reach 40 Fri afternoon . and we will fall well into the teens and 20s Fri night.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term . Conditions improve to VFR rapidly this morning as northwest winds bring in drier air. The exception to this will be on the northwest side of the mountains where those winds will be locking in the low level clouds for a while longer before the dry air finally breaks these clouds up this evening. VFR conditions expected tonight and Wednesday area wide as high pressure moves through the region. Some passing mid level clouds and a stray shower are possible in southern areas overnight.

Long Term . As precip moves into the area the second half of Thu I expect widespread IFR conditions to overspread the area. Most of the area should start as RA given the relatively mild antecedent air . but precip is expected to transition to SN Thu night. LIFR conditions will develop S of the mtns especially in any snowfall. Precip tapering off Fri midday and warming temps will help to change any remaining precip back to SHRA and conditions will improve as flow becomes N and NW.

MARINE. Short Term . Northwest winds behind a cold front may occasionally gust to 20KT or so today over the outer waters in a relatively well mixed environment. However, pressure gradient is rather weak so it is unlikely that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. High pressure builds in from the west tonight and crests over the waters on Wednesday with light winds.

Long Term . Low pressure developing S of New England will increase NE flow across the waters into Fri. A period of gale force gusts is possible outside of the bays very late Thu night into Fri afternoon.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . Hanes SHORT TERM . Kimble LONG TERM . Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 12 mi58 min 47°F 53°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 18 mi98 min N 14 G 18 47°F 53°F3 ft1020.1 hPa (+1.4)
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 39 mi84 min NNW 16 G 18 48°F 54°F3 ft1020 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 39 mi88 min N 2.9 48°F 46°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 41 mi58 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 53°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi84 min N 9.7 G 14 49°F 55°F3 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME15 mi37 minNNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F39°F74%1020.9 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME22 mi32 minNNW 1210.00 miFair47°F35°F63%1021.5 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi35 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds49°F37°F66%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE43E9SE5E34NW5NW6NW4CalmW4NW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW3NW3NW6N9
1 day agoN10W4NW8N5CalmNE5N4NE5NE5N3N3N5N4NE5N3CalmN4N6N9N6N5N73N3
2 days agoS6S4SE5SW5E4CalmNW9N16
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Tide / Current Tables for Chebeague Point, Great Chebeague Island, Maine
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Chebeague Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:11 AM EDT     8.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:11 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:28 PM EDT     9.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.12.20.90.61.32.94.96.88.28.98.67.25.23.21.711.32.64.66.68.1997.9

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:57 AM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:33 PM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.1-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.40.10.50.70.810.80.3-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.10.30.60.70.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.