DISCUSSION
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

- Highs in the 80s and Likely Dry All Week

Dry conditions are favored to continue. Upper ridging across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada is not anticipated to relent anytime soon. The ridging is anomalously strong, as shown by the ECE ensemble mean 500 mb heights reaching almost 3 standard deviations above normal across eastern Canada by late this week. Longwave troughing across the western U.S. is going to have a tough time making forward progress with such a strong ridge in place. Any tropical activity that develops across the western Atlantic also would likely be steered away from the region. A minority of ensemble members (mainly from the GEFS) show rain associated with the remnants of whatever becomes of the National Hurricane Center's "Invest 95L" reaching eastern Lower MI by mid week. Most ensemble members overall do not depict this outcome, and given the upper pattern in place we are likely to stay dry, aside from some cloud cover from this system potentially by Wednesday or Thursday.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue unabated this week, with 80 or warmer likely each day for almost all areas. Normal highs are in the mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 635 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

High confidence in VFR at all terminals over the TAF window. High pressure will keep skies clear, with generally a light east- southeast wind. The only exception is winds at MKG which will go westerly for a time Monday afternoon due to a lake breeze, remaining light even with the wind shift.

MARINE
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Waves of 1 foot or less are expected into much of this week given mainly easterly flow. This will lead to pretty tranquil conditions.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.