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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1103 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered snow and rain showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 1103 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a weak area of low pressure moving along a cold front crosses the waters tonight, with the front stalling across the waters. Multiple weak disturbances move along the front this weekend. A stronger coastal low is looking more likely early next week, moving through the gulf of maine on Monday. High pressure then slowly builds back across the waters through the middle of the week.

FXUS61 KGYX 011610 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1110 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
It will be a mild day to start meteorological winter, with high temperatures approaching 50 for many locations south of the mountains. However that mild air will come with mostly rain this afternoon and overnight. Showery weather will likely linger through the weekend, especially in the mountains. Then early next week a more organized storm will approach the Gulf of Maine. Details are still low confidence, but some accumulating snowfall will be possible even for areas outside of the higher terrain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
11am Update...Few minor tweaks to the morning temp trend and boosted cloud coverage across the north. Otherwise, forecast remains in good shape.

7:50am Update... Slowed POPs across the mountains this morning as showers slowly approach from Canada. Otherwise no notable changes as the forecast remains on track.

Previous...

A fast moving and fairly weak system approaches New England today, with showers spreading into far western New Hampshire by sunset. Ahead of the system, clouds increase during the daytime as temperatures warm into the 50s across southern and coastal locations, with 40s elsewhere. Temperatures this warm ahead of the system help to ensure most of the precip will fall as rain, with only northernmost areas standing a chance to see some snow.
Some rain and snow shower activity is possible during the daytime today along the Canadian border, but the bulk of the precip will hold off until tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Rain quickly overspreads the area through the evening from southwest to northeast. Precip only lasts for about 3 to 5 hours in any one spot, with only a few scattered showers lingering behind the main band of precipitation. While most areas see a quick round of light rain, northernmost areas along the Canadian border will likely see a change to snow toward the end of the event. Overall any snowfall amounts look to remain very light, with areas outside of the higher terrain struggling to accumulate snow as precip intensity lessens while temps are cooling.

A cold front following the system stalls across central New England tomorrow. High pressure builds well north of New England and starts to drain some cooler air into northern areas during the daytime tomorrow. At the same time, a weak disturbance will move along the stalled front, bringing mainly cloudy conditions and a few showers to most of the region. Across far northern areas however, precip increases in coverage through the day as warmer air associated with the passing disturbance overrides the stalled front. This cause intermittent showers to evolve into light snow along the Canadian border and higher northern peaks, with light rain across the rest of the mountains and northern foothills. Both the rain and snow tomorrow looks to remain very light, with snowflakes mostly just in the air and struggling to accumulate.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Overview: Mean L/WV trof axis gradually shifts east thru the week
In addition to cooling temps as a result
the storm track will become more active
Showery weather will be likely
with a larger and more organized storm system possible early next week.

Impacts: While the forecast is still lower confidence...some accumulating snowfall is possible south of the mtns to start the week. The Mon morning commute is in the window of possible snowfall.

Forecast Details: WAA will be increasing thru the day Sun and with a frontal boundary draped nearby...rain or snow showers will be possible. Initial focus will likely be tied to terrain...but gradually showers become more numerous thru the day.

Model guidance still pretty uncertain on early week system.
Trends have been to come towards more of a consensus...but that consensus is more of two separate waves than a consolidated one.
The result is coastal low pressure with a trailing inverted trof. Inverted trofs are always a low confidence scenario and this one is no different. It is not just whether precip occurs and how heavy it will be...but also what temps will be like.
Ensemble guidance still showing higher mean snowfall than 50th percentile...especially near the coast. This means only a small number of members are really showing snowfall for southern and coastal zones. Bufkit forecast soundings show a mostly deep
near isothermal layer near the surface
so small fluctuations in temp will have oversized impact on ptype. For now snow accumulation will be more likely with some increased elevation...where temps will be cooler and isothermal layers will be thinner.

Beyond the early week the larger trof axis will shift east of the forecast area
Flow will generally be offshore
and the pattern will transition to more upslope focused precip until the next S/WV trof arrives.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail through the day today, then ceilings gradually lower as light rain arrives this evening.
Ceilings gradually lower to MVFR in the evening, then IFR at most terminals by midnight. These may briefly lift for a period tomorrow at MHT, PSM, and PWM, but otherwise mainly IFR with occasional MVFR ceilings linger most of the day tomorrow with scattered showers.

Long Term...Pockets of IFR conditions likely linger into Sun...as low level moisture keeps abundant clouds and showers in the area. A more organized area of precip is likely by Mon...with widespread IFR or lower conditions. By Tue VFR conditions return to most areas outside of the mtns...but some upslope MVFR CIGs and SHRA are possible around HIE.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions in southwesterly winds ease this morning. A weak low pressure system crosses the waters tonight, and then a frontal boundary stalls across the Gulf of Maine tomorrow as high pressure passes well north of the waters.

Long Term...Low pressure developing in the Gulf of ME will bring SCA conditions to the coastal waters early next week. Northeast winds will gust above 25 kt...especially outside of the bays...as early as Mon. Seas will gradually build to above 5 ft by Tue...lingering into midweek.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cundy Harbor
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Fri -- 01:30 AM EST     8.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:30 PM EST     9.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:00 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cundy Harbor, New Meadows River, Maine, Tide feet

Lowe Point (northeast of)
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Fri -- 03:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:24 AM EST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:31 AM EST     1.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:54 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lowe Point (northeast of), Sasanoa River, Maine Current, knots

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