Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boothbay Harbor, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6 AM Update: No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast and updated the aviation discussion below.

Low pressure tracking east across Quebec will lift a warm front through the area this morning. Temperatures are already on their upward trend early this morning with mainly light rain occurring across the area. Chances for rain will diminish around day break with drier air aloft working in on deep layer southwest to west flow. This drier air will allow for clearing skies through the morning with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Sunshine combined with mixing up to 850 mb will allow for highs to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s south of the mountains while northern areas will be restricted to the 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
The passing cold front crosses this evening with little in the way of clouds or precipitation. Winds shift out of the northwest behind the front but will become light through the first half of tonight.
These light winds combined with mostly clear skies through the first part of tonight will allow for temperatures to drop quickly with lows ranging from the 20s north to around 30 degrees across the south.

The next system in the active pattern will start to take shape Sunday as low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. Sunday will start off mostly dry with increasing clouds through the day as WAA strengthens. The WAA regime will bring increasing chances for precipitation through Sunday afternoon, mainly across NH into the mountains of western Maine. Thermal profiles may be cold enough for a brief period of snow or wintry mix across the north Sunday afternoon with the bulk of the precipitation not arriving until Sunday evening with rain likely south of the mountains. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to upper 40s south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long Term Update: Little change in thoughts and resultant forecast at this time. Deterministic guidance has been trying to resolve individual surface lows amid the broader cyclonic disturbance. Basis tends to be the northern wave attempting to phase with low off the Mid-Atlantic coast as both quickly become northbound through New England. This pits the CWA under an overrunning event, leaving main frontal system developing off the East Coast. This is a common storm type for the region, but the dueling surface lows will complicate temperature advection.

Previous Discussion...
Key Message: Near to below normal temps thru the extended. Best chance for precip early in the week followed by breezy offshore winds and upslope showers.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated. Some wintry weather expected in the mtns.

Forecast Details: Most of the action will occur in the first part of the extended as a seasonably strong trof crosses the eastern CONUS. The bulk of the anomalous conditions will be in the base of the trof
mainly over the Southeast
but a strong upper level jet and left exit region will approach the forecast area Sun/Sun night
It will be a cold rain for most
with wintry precip likely for the higher terrain into Sun evening. As the column dries, this may turn to drizzle/freezing drizzle. Given the uncertainty surrounding surface temps at this range...I have kept precip types just rain and snow for now.

By Mon night a solid cold front will be working thru the region. Strong CAA will help with mechanical mixing but I would not be surprised if we needed a little sunshine Tue to help mix the front completely thru. CAA will continue into at least Tue night...so I anticipate gusty winds for around 24 hrs. That will also start a period of below normal weather...where temps largely stay in the 40s for most locations. With continued offshore winds thru the remainder of the week...upslope cloud cover and rain/snow showers will also linger in the mtns.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term... Conditions continue to improve across the region with some MVFR/IFR ceilings and light rain hanging around in the vicinity of the midcoast. RKD and AUG could see another hour or two of restrictions from this activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally expected through tonight. The next system brings lowering cigs and chances for precipitation by Sunday afternoon with at least MVFR conditions likely by Sunday evening.

Long Term...Increasing probability for MVFR/IFR ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning. LIFR probs also increasing between midnight and 11am Mon morning. SN will be ongoing north of the Whites and western ME mtns before midnight, but transition to RA like the remainder of the forecast area. RA tapers in the evening, with ceilings south and east of the mtns improving towards VFR. Two periods of winds to consider, one Sunday night amid the potential low restrictions: E becoming N w/ gusts around 15 kt, and the second: winds become W Mon evening with increasing gust factor Tuesday around 20 to 25 kts.

MARINE
Short Term...Gusty southwest winds 25 to 30 kts will start to subside after sunrise. Seas will remain elevated through today with SCAs remaining in effect for seas greater than 5 feet. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds tonight through Sunday before the next low pressure system approaches from the west. This system will bring increasing easterly winds with gusts approaching 25 kts by Sunday evening.

Long Term...Developing storm system will be approaching the waters Sunday evening. Potential for one surface low to push along the St. Lawrence River, while another approaches the Gulf of Maine from the south Monday. Result will be a period of near-Gale conditions Sunday night as winds remain onshore into Monday. As the system departs, winds become west Mon night with Gales more likely Tues into Wed.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ153.