Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elkton, OR

AVIATION
20/00Z TAFs...VFR this evening. Breezy northwest winds will continue for all TAF sites with peak gusts generally in the 20- 25 kt range easing 03-05Z.

Isolated thunderstorms developed across SE Modoc County in the last hour or so and could also graze SE Lake County this evening. Any of these cells can contain gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning. They should all be east of the area by around 03Z.

Tonight, MVFR ceilings may develop at the coast late this evening, especially north of Cape Blanco with showers developing around 09Z.
Expect widespread showers for areas west of the Cascades during Friday, where there can also be isoalted thunderstorms. These, however, are most likely along the coast and into the Umpqua Friday afternoon. Expect some gusty winds again Friday afternoon, especially east of the Cascades with peak gusts of 20-30kt.
-Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 316 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025/

DISCUSSION...A big change to cool and wet weather is coming for Friday and Saturday, and another big change, back to very warm weather will follow for next week. In between, Sunday looks to be the transition day with conditions near normal.

First, with the alaskan trough now looming northwest of Vancouver Island, high clouds have increased and gusty west to northwest winds have also begun to increase in speed. Today's breezy afternoon and evening will resemble conditions from yesterday at the same time with gusts of 20 to 30 mph expected to be common, strongest over the higher terrain, along the Curry County coast, in the Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening in southeast Lake County, with a barely mentionable slight risk also extending a bit farther south to the Warner Mountains of northeast Modoc County.

A thickening marine layer could bring a few drizzly showers to the coast north of Cape Blanco as early as this evening, but the real start to our wet, very cool weather looks to begin after 3 AM late tonight. Rainfall amounts during Friday and Saturday still look to be focused in southwest Oregon, especially north of the Umpqua Divide...with a quarter to three quarters of an inch forecast for Coos and Douglas counties into far western Klamath County.
Around a quarter of an inch is forecast for Curry County. Total Rogue Valley rainfall looks to be around a tenth of an inch. The bulk of the rainfall is expected during Friday afternoon and evening, and Saturday afternoon. A storm total of 4 inches is forecast for Crater Lake above 5500 feet. Most of northern California and south central Oregon still are expected to receive measureable rain, but the main story there will be cooler temperatures and cloudy skies.

A warming and drying trend begins Sunday with highs near normal on Sunday and expected to be consistently several degrees above normal for the remainder of next week. Also of note, the SREF is showing weak instability for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward on Sunday with a 10% probability of late day thunderstorms. This is supported by the 12Z NAM, but the 12Z GFS indicates a dry air mass. We will expect a consensus to form as the time draws nearer. More broadly, but beyond the shorter term models, the 12Z GFS does indicate weak instability for the southern Oregon Cascades into south central Oregon and northern California. So, the probability of thunderstorms has been nudged up to 10% for that area on Monday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, next week looks to be generally stable and very warm inland while night and morning low clouds will be prevalent at the coast with typically cool temperatures.

AVIATION
19/18Z TAFs
Some of the smoke from the Applegate Fire settled in underneath a low-level inversion, which is now breaking.
So, locally reduced visibility can be expected to improve in the vicinity of the fire. But, breezy northwest winds will develop there, and for all TAF sites, again this afternoon into this evening.
Peak gusts again will be in the 20-25 kt range.

Also, marine stratus along the Umpqus Divide and southern portions of the Umpqua Basin will continue to erode during the remainder of the morning.

Afternoon/evening cumulus buildups are expected to occur in Lake County, out near the Warner Mtns, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in far southeast Lake County.

MVFR ceilings may develop at the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco this evening with rain developing around 09Z, late tonight.
-DW

MARINE
Updated 230 PM Thursday, June 19, 2025
Breezy north winds continue north of Cape Blanco tonight, with stronger winds and steep, hazardous seas from Cape Blanco southward. An unseasonably cool and wet system arrives Friday and Saturday with breezy west to northwest winds, and fresh swell dominated seas. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, mainly north of Cape Blanco. A thermal trough returns Sunday through Monday with north winds, and steep seas likely south of Cape Blanco. -DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.