Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 110539 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1139 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE. Mid level clouds will overspread srn WI during the early morning. Very light snow or flurries may still occur over far srn WI from 10-14Z as a band of light snow tracks from IA to IL. Skies will then clear shortly afterward with another cold day expected.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). Few-sct025 stratocumulus and flurries will exit ern WI by 07Z. Brief periods of bkn025 will be possible. Mid level clouds will overspread srn WI from the west during the early morning hours. Flurries or very light snow may occur for a few hours over far srn WI from 10-14Z. Skies will then clear from nw to se.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 922 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

UPDATE . The forecast is on track for tnt-Wed.

MARINE . Low pressure of 30.0 inches over the northern Great Lakes will move into Quebec on Wednesday. High pressure of 30.6 inches over the northern Great Plains early Wednesday morning will move across Lake Michigan Wednesday night. Brisk westerly winds will continue tonight into Wednesday but diminish late Wednesday. Westerly wind gusts will approach small craft advisory conditions from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for the early morning hours of Wed. The modest west winds will then back to southerly early Thursday morning as the high passes by. The colder airmass in place will lead to freezing spray at times.

South winds will increase Thursday as a weak low pressure system around 30.0 inches pushes in. A few gale force gusts are possible in the afternoon, especially over the center and south half of the lake. A Gale Watch may be needed. The low will move across the lake Thursday night. Lighter winds are expected on Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 603 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

UPDATE . An upper trough extending from Ontario to srn Manitoba will quickly dig sewd to Lake MI by 12Z Wed. This will help maintain a sfc trough over srn WI with sct stratocumulus west and south of Madison continuing slowly ewd this evening. Ahead of the upper trough a surge of warm advection and 850 mb frontogenesis will bring a narrow band of light snow across IA and nrn IL. Far sw WI may get clipped by a brief period of very light snow or flurries from 10-14Z Wed. Afterward, skies will clear with high temps in the teens. A sfc ridge will then shift ewd across srn WI for the late afternoon and evening.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . Few-sct025 stratocumulus are expected tnt. Brief periods of bkn025 will be possible mainly south of a line from Baraboo to Milwaukee. Skies will clear during the morning daylight hours with VFR conditions continuing into Wed nt.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 256 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Rest of this Afternoon through Wednesday Afternoon . Forecast Confidence High .

Light flurries associated with a lingering stratocu deck continue across eastern Wisconsin early this afternoon. This activity will slowly diminish in coverage this afternoon, with skies clearing out by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the teens and low 20s this afternoon.

Temperatures will quickly fall with sunset, reaching the single digits by mid evening. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid single digits above zero. A steady west breeze will bring wind chill values into the -5 to -15 range by morning.

A passing wave will bring the potential for some very light snow to the southwest of the area late tonight and early tomorrow, but for us, mid level cloud cover should be the only real impact. Skies should again clear by tomorrow afternoon, with afternoon highs ranging from the low teens north to around 20 across the far south.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday night through Friday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

A short wave will advance into the region Thursday. There is a swath of WAA at 850 mb and frontogenesis around 700mb that should support some precipitation for central and northern Wisconsin. The freezing line will bisect southern Wisconsin on Thursday,bringing the best chance for snow to counties north of I-94. Any accumulating snowfall is expected to remain light for all of southern Wisconsin. The areas south of I-94 could see little to no precipitation accumulations given the current model trends.This system will move out by Thursday night and there is expected to be a rather short break in the precipitation Friday.

Friday Night through Monday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

There is a trough that is expected to dig into the center CONUS late Friday into Saturday. As this trough digs into the region, a surface low is expected to develop across the Central Plains late Friday. As the system moves eastward toward the Great Lakes region, it is expected to deepen. With the latest model updates the track of the surface low pressure system has a little bit more uncertainty. The GFS has a track over the northern half of IL, while the ECMWF has the track further south. Despite the uncertainty in track, southern Wisconsin is expected to get some snow/wintry precipitation Saturday. After the system move through on Saturday, high pressure will build into the area and colder temperatures are expected to return. Another trough is expected to move though the area early next week for the start of the work week. There is still moderate uncertainty in the timing of this next system.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

MVFR ceilings and a few flurries will continue to persist across the area early this afternoon. This activity will slowly diminish with time, with ceilings scattering out by late afternoon, and eventually clearing. Late tonight into tomorrow, a passing wave to our south will bring mid and high level cloud cover to the area, but no precipitation is expected.

Winds through the period will remain westerly.

MARINE .

West winds will continue across the lake today and tonight. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, with lighter winds expected.

Winds will become southerly on Thursday, with gusts approaching gale force across the southern half of the open waters. For the nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Wednesday Night through Tuesday . Patterson

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	8 mi	54 min	W 16 G 20	10°F			1024.5 hPa (-0.7)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	35 mi	74 min	W 6 G 13	12°F			1025.1 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI	43 mi	60 min	WSW 6 G 8.9	4°F			1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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NW7 G13

NW11 G17

NW9 G14

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NW10 G16

W8 G13

W9 G15

W9 G13

W7 G13

W10 G13

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W8 G13

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W6 G10

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E8

E7 G10

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NE6 G10

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N5 G8

NW3 G6

NW4 G8

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NW5 G9

NW10 G17

N13 G17

N13 G22

NW10 G20

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NW10 G21

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NW5 G11

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S15

S14 G18

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S7 G11

SW7 G10

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SW5 G9

SW2 G7

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NW1 G4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI	13 mi	61 min	W 12	10.00 mi	Fair	9°F	0°F	66%	1024.3 hPa
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI	20 mi	58 min	W 8	9.00 mi	Light Snow	8°F	1°F	76%	1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)

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W14 G22

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W13 G21

NW12 G23

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NW15 G22

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NW9 G19

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NE5

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W12 G29

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NE4

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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