Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 040504 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

UPDATE.

No changes needed at this time, the current forecast is on track.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

VFR conditions are forecast through the period as high pressure at the surface settles in and the upper low starts to shift east. Satellite imagery does show clouds building over the lake and these could move into KMKE/KENW but uncertain if these will be MVFR/VFR. Winds stay out of the N/NE with speed below 10 kts inland and 10-15kts closer to the lake. As the high pressure moves in expect clearing skies and lighter winds by Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 910 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020)

UPDATE .

Starting to see some holes in the clouds, but they remain slow to clear. Temps have been slow to cool as a result. Should see temps fall a bit faster in areas of clearing through the remainder of the evening.

MARINE .

Lake Michigan will remain in a north to northeasterly wind regime through Tuesday due to high pressure over southern Canada and weak low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. A tighter pressure gradient between these two features will cause gusty winds and higher waves to continue tonight with the potential for gusts up to 30 knots, especially through late evening in the south. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight across the nearshore waters and into Tuesday in the south.

The winds and resultant wave heights will gradually decrease as the high pressure ridge edges closer on Tuesday. Lighter winds are then expected through mid-week under the high.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020)

UPDATE .

Updated the sky cover into tonight to hang onto clouds a bit longer given satellite trends and latest soundings. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for tonight.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

Lingering MVFR ceilings toward the WI/IL border should improve by later this evening, with mainly VFR conditions expected overnight across southern Wisconsin. May see broken ceilings linger much of tonight. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus are expected tomorrow, from late morning through afternoon. Should see VFR conditions continue tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 352 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight Through Tuesday Night . Forecast Confidence Is Moderate.

Passing weak inverted trof and mid-level short wave on southern end of sharpening long wave trof over the western Great lakes will continue to trigger scattered light showers and sprinkles across the area late this afternoon into the early evening. A few lake induced showers may also clip the far east tonight. Widespread stratus over eastern two thirds of the CWA should become more cellular, and at least partially breakup overnight, as synoptic lift with short wave moves to the east, and increasing subsidence spreads into the area associated with location of strengthening upper level jet.

Southern WI will remain in thermal trof and weakly cyclonic flow on Tuesday, so expect more clouds to develop across the area during the morning. Could become mostly cloudy for a time. Pattern changes Tuesday night, as upper low just north of Lake Huron shifts to the east. This will allow the thermal trof to move off to the east, and gradual warming to take place for the later half of the week. Meanwhile, high temperatures on Tuesday will again be on the cool side for early August, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Will continue Lakeshore Flood Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement as is for now. Winds and waves may be coming down quicker late tonight and Tuesday. Hence, later shifts may be able to cancel these products a few hours earlier than current expiration time.

Wednesday Through Friday . Forecast Confidence Is Moderate.

Models are in decent agreement with high pressure over central Illinois gradually shifting into lower Michigan Wednesday into Wednesday night, then slowly moving east of there into Friday. They do show a 500 mb short wave trough shifting southeast from eastern North Dakota to southeast Minnesota Wednesday and Wednesday night, then across the region Thursday. There is some uncertainty with the exact path, with some models taking it a little north of the area. Northwest flow at 500 mb then lingers into Friday.

Forecast soundings are showing some mid-level moisture and clouds moving through the area Wednesday into Thursday night, though the low levels remain dry and the moisture is not deep. Upward vertical motion fields with the short wave trough passage are fairly weak as well. Thus, kept this period mostly dry across the area, with some low PoPs in the far west at times.

South winds gradually developing Thursday into Friday should bring high temperatures slowly back toward seasonal normals, with a lake breeze developing each afternoon near the lake.

LONG TERM .

Friday Night Through Monday . Forecast Confidence Is Moderate.

Models are generally trending toward a 500 mb ridge developing in the central and northern Plains by early next week, with northwest flow gradually becoming more zonal over the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Warm air advection becomes steady across the region during this period, with ensembles supporting warm and humid conditions returning over the weekend and into early next week.

There is a fair amount of disagreement with a possible low and cold front moving east across the region Saturday or Sunday, with a good amount of spread in the ensembles on the track and QPF. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during this period, though no all-day/night washouts are expected at this time. Better confidence in timing and chances for convection should be found as we get closer to this period.

AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATES) .

Widespread MVFR ceilings and scattered light showers should give way to VFR conditions across most of southern WI overnight. A period of MVFR ceilings may return for a time on Tuesday.

MARINE .

Winds are now turning more north to northeast over the southern open waters and near shore waters, as inverted low pressure trof aided by warm Lake Michigan waters moves through southern Lake Michigan. Cannot rule out an isolated water spout developing, as lake induced cape between 500-1000 joules/kg.

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through for all nearshore zones, but end it at 12z Tuesday across the northern zones and mid-afternoon across the southern zones. Wave heights are expected to come down a bit quicker on Tuesday.

BEACHES .

Gusty north to northeast winds are expected to continue tonight into Tuesday, with a gradual diminishing in the afternoon. Waves at the Lake Michigan shore are expected to remain in the dangerous category and high swim risk tonight into Tuesday morning, possibly falling into a moderate swim risk later Tuesday.

For now, will continue the Beach Hazard statement, due to dangerous swimming conditions through Tuesday, but later shifts may be able to cancel it a few hours early.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for WIZ052-060- 066-071-072.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ052-060- 066.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ071-072.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Tuesday for LMZ645-646.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643-644.



Update . Stumpf Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine . 99 Tuesday Night through Monday . 99

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	8 mi	34 min	NNW 11 G 13	62°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	35 mi	54 min	NNW 7 G 8.9	61°F			1019.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI	43 mi	46 min	N 2.9 G 11	57°F			1019 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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Last 24hr

N4 G12

N4 G9

N4 G11

N3 G10

N7 G12

N6 G11

N6 G11

N6 G12

N5 G13

N4 G10

N4 G13

N5 G15

N5 G11

NE8 G20

NE11 G19

NE7 G17

NE10 G15

NE9 G14

N4 G10

N4 G10

N3 G8

N3 G9

N5 G11

N5 G10

1 day ago

NW1

NW2

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W1 G4

NW2 G5

NW2 G5

NW2 G5

NW2 G6

NE4 G9

NE6 G9

NE2 G8

NE7 G13

NE3 G8

N8 G14

N9 G18

N8 G17

N5 G10

N5 G12

N5 G10

N5 G12

N3 G8

N7 G12

N4 G13

N3 G8

2 days ago

NW2

NW1 G4

W1 G4

NE2 G7

NE2 G7

NE3 G6

NE1 G6

NE2 G6

E5 G8

E3 G6

E4 G7

E1 G4

E1

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N1

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NW1

NW1 G4

NW1 G5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI	13 mi	41 min	N 7	10.00 mi	Fair	57°F	48°F	72%	1018.9 hPa
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI	20 mi	38 min	N 7	10.00 mi	Fair	56°F	48°F	75%	1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)

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N8

N7

NW6

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N6

N8

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N10 G17

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1 day ago

Calm

Calm

NW4

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NW3

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NE6

E11

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NE10 G19

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N8 G15

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N11 G18

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2 days ago

Calm

NW4

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NE5

E3

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Calm

NW3

NW4

NW3

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI

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