Pultneyville, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pultneyville, NY

May 27, 2024 9:25 AM EDT (13:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 11:59 PM   Moonset 7:48 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ063 Expires:202405251645;;845696 Fzus71 Kbuf 251546 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 1146 am edt Sat may 25 2024
loz042-043-062-063-251645- 1146 am edt Sat may 25 2024
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from lower niagara river to sodus bay - .
at 1144 am edt, doppler radar indicated a cluser of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located 14 nm northeast of youngstown, or 15 nm northeast of niagara river, moving northeast at 35 knots.
locations impacted include - . Ontario beach, thirty mile point, niagara river, ontario on the lake, olcott, hamlin beach, wilson, Sunset beach, fort niagara, and sodus bay.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
&&
lat - .lon 4354 7895 4363 7831 4363 7697 4326 7696 4326 7777 4331 7783 4334 7853 4326 7891 4326 7907 4345 7920

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pultneyville, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 271231 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 831 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
While the majority of today will be rain free...a relatively deep storm system moving out of Lower Michigan will push a pair of frontal systems through our area that will result in several rounds of showers and drenching thunderstorms. Some storms may have the potential to generate damaging wind gusts...mainly across the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions. The unsettled will persist into mid week...while there is high confidence that it will become progressively cooler.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A convectively enhanced shortwave is passing just to our west this morning. An area of moderate to heavy showers, no lightning at the moment, is working across Western NY as of 12Z with this shortwave.
Given the environment any shower activity will be capable of producing heavy rain with such a moisture rich airmass (PWAT values ~ 1.6"). This feature will bring with it a pre frontal sfc trough that will cross the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region during the afternoon and early evening.

Strong Thunderstorms and Drenching Downpours Likely Today

As is typically the case in western New York...it is the pre frontal troughs that usually generate the greatest forcing for strong convection...rather than the ensuing cold frontal passage. This case will be no different. While instability (SBCAPE) ahead of this next boundary is only forecast to reach 500-1000 j/kg...bulk shear values of at least 30-40 kts are anticipated. Additional incalculable shear should be added by the remnants of the previously mentioned MVC (convectively enhanced shortwave) moving through the region. Should convection become organized over the Finger Lakes and particularly the Eastern Lake Ontario region...it would not be difficult for stronger downdrafts to funnel 40-45kt winds aloft to the sfc...especially given a forecast of DCAPEs in the vcnty of 1000 j/kg. The Storm Prediction Center has thus outlined the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region within a slight risk for severe convection for today. While more widely separated showers and drenching thunderstorms will still be possible back over the far western counties this afternoon...the risk for strong to severe convection will be notable lower.

While breaks of sun will be possible for some areas today...we can anticipate a fair amount of cloud cover with noticeably higher humidity...courtesy of Td's reaching into the mid 60s. Its worth noting that any breaks of sun will only increase the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms...especially for the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions.

There will also be the potential for localized hydro concerns...as the sub tropical airmass combined with short mbE vectors will lend itself to torrential downpours. This could lead to smaller basins receiving an inch or two of rain in an hours time...which is right where current one hour flash flood guidance is positioned. The highest risk for this scenario coming to fruition will be once again be over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions.

The deep area of low pressure will be over western Quebec by late this afternoon/early evening
At this time
it will push a cold front through the region. While a few more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with its passage...this will certainly be anti- climactic after the stronger convection from the pre-frontal trough.

Significant mid level drying in the wake of the cold front later tonight will bring an end to the showers and evening storms...
although some showers could linger east of Lake Ontario into the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Some areas could even experience at least partial clearing.

Tuesday will be characterized by brisk winds...cooler and less humid conditions...as a deep cyclonic flow will be in place across the eastern half of the continent. A robust shortwave within this pattern will rotate across the region while being accompanied by the next surge of deeper moisture. This will combine with diurnally enhanced instability to once again encourage showers and possible thunderstorms to blossom over the region...especially during the midday and afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will only climb into the 60s to near 70...which will be JUST shy of normal values while westerly winds will gust to 30 to 35 mph at times.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A potent trough and then a cold front will track across the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. As the trough tracks across the area, showers will continue through the first half of the night, before becoming less organized. Forcing from the trough will provide the main focus for showers during the evening and early overnight, while the cold front will move through and continue the potential for showers. Overall synoptic moisture ahead of the trough will be generally low with PWats of around an inch, and lowering some to around three quarters of an inch after it crosses the area.
With these lower moisture values and weaker forcing from the cold front, showers that do linger into the morning on Wednesday will be less organized. Most areas can expect less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall, with the greatest amounts east of Lake Ontario where forcing and moisture will be slightly better. Temperatures on the night will be in the upper 40s for the higher terrain to the low 50s for the lower elevations.

Wednesday, showers will linger across the area, with the best chance for showers southeast of Lake Ontario toward the NY/PA border.
Showers will taper off and track out of the area from northwest to southeast. By the afternoon, showers should be limited to a general area from the NY/PA border, to the Finger Lakes & to the western ADKs. Northwest flow over the region will help keep temperatures below normal, with highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively.

Wednesday night, earlier showers should be out of the area, minus a few sprinkles for the Southern Tier and for areas well southeast of Lake Ontario. Clearing skies from northwest to southeast, along with a mostly northerly flow will bring one of the cooler nights the area has seen in a while with overnight lows dropping to the low to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A large area of high pressure and stout ridge will build east into the region during the long term period. This will provide mainly dry and fair weather for most of the period. A trough will pass over the region on Thursday/Thursday night, but synoptic moisture will be limited and with the sfc high pushing into the region, any potential for showers looks very limited. The sfc high and large ridge center over the region from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.

There are some timing issues with the next incoming trough and how quickly the large ridge weakens and/or moves east. Due to this, some guidance is bringing in the potential for showers starting on Sunday morning, but with the lack of certainty, left at most slight chance POPs.

Temperatures for the period will start out at least 5 degrees below normal on Thursday and warm through the period to around 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Showers and storms will move across western terminals from 12Z to 16z this morning. This area of pcpn will at time be accompanied by mainly MVFR cigs and lower Vsbys. IFR Cigs may be possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

Cigs of 2500-3500 feet should then be common during the midday and afternoon. There will be more showers and thunderstorms to contend with...especially over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions where the convection could become strong.

The showers and residual thunderstorms this evening will taper off from west to east...as a cold front will press through the region.
MVFR cigs will remain in place across the western Southern Tier...which cigs of 2500-3500 should remain in place elsewhere.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers.
Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

MARINE
Southerly winds will freshen and gradually become southwesterly throughout the Lower Great Lakes today...but with most areas experiencing an offshore flow...the only area that will warrant a small craft advisory will be on Lake Erie.

There will be thunderstorms throughout the region today...some of which could become strong. The highest risk for significant convection will be over the eastern half of Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening. Mariners should be extra vigilant to any statements or warnings regarding this activity.

Moderate to fresh southwesterlies are then expected throughout the region tonight and Tuesday. These winds would very likely require more small craft advisories.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 17 mi46 min SE 9.7G12 62°F 57°F29.6160°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 26 mi86 min SE 12G16 63°F 57°F2 ft29.63
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 43 mi86 min S 9.9G14 72°F 29.63
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 44 mi56 min 72°F
45215 49 mi60 min 69°F 62°F1 ft


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
CYTR TRENTON,CN 21 sm25 minSSE 09G1815 smOvercast72°F63°F73%29.57
Link to 5 minute data for KROC


Wind History from ROC
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Montague, NY,




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