Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pultneyville, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and thunderstorms possible today, some of which may produce strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

2) Dry weather returns Monday and notably cooler.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms possible today, some of which may produce strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase today as the low over the northern Ontario Province directs a cold front towards the Lower Lakes.

Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall Potential...

Little overall change with previous thinking as guidance still shows a low CAPE/high shear (+40) environment. It still looks like some measure of showers or storms develop out ahead of the approaching strong cold front around 15Z
After that
a line of storms is advertised to then comes marching in between 18Z-21Z this afternoon with the front. CAPE values still are 'not' all that impressive with between 900-1200 j/kg away from the lakes. Speaking of which, it remains to be seen how much the lakes will even influence the evolution of convection
Even so
given the decent shear storms will have the potential to become strong to severe with the primary risk damaging wind gusts. SPC has continued to highlight our region in a Marginal-Slight Risk for severe storms
Additionally
PWATs will be found in the 1.5-1.75" range ahead of the cold front. The main concern would be if storms were to train over the same location. There continues to be a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, with an expansion of the Slight Risk across Jefferson and far northern Lewis county.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry Weather returns Monday and notably cooler.

Showers and storms will end from NW to SE Sunday night behind the front, with a much cooler air mass spilling in across the Lower Lakes. With high pressure building in Monday expect dry weather but cool conditions as H850 T's dip into the single digits.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions will continue through 12Z this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today as a cold front nears and then crosses the region. These showers and thunderstorms will bring about localized IFR-LIFR conditions at times to area terminals.

With the passage of the front lingering MVFR-IFR cigs will begin to slowly improve Sunday night, with a return to VFR overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Elevated southwest winds ahead of a cold front will make for choppy conditions on area lakes today. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead and along an approaching cold front, some of which may produce strong gusty winds and higher wave action.

Winds will turn westerly behind the cold front this evening and tonight, which may bring a brief period of small craft conditions to the lakes. Lighter winds and wave actions expected Monday as high pressure builds over the Lower Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.