Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pultneyville, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220244 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 944 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build to the east coast and bring dry weather to our region Wednesday through Friday with temperatures climbing to well above normal levels. Low pressure will then move slowly from the Ohio Valley Saturday to the New England coast Sunday. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow initially on Saturday, which may change to accumulating wet snow late Saturday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An approaching mid level ridge is killing off the last vestiges of the weak lake effect . as a crushing subsidence inversion has dropped from arnd 4500 ft to about 2500 ft in the past 12 hours. This has all but ended the lake snow showers in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. While a few very light snow showers will still be possible through about 06z . the cloud nearing layer is just about under the DGZ Once this happens overnight. any light pcpn east of Lake Ontario will fall as patchy freezing drizzle Otherwise. clouds have thinned out across a large portion of western New York. The only clouds that remain are part of a negligible lake response off Lk Erie. A flurry or two from this area of strato-cu cannot be ruled out.

Lows will not be quite as cold as the past few nights as the core of the cold airmass will move away. Expect lows in the mid 20s on the lake plains, with teens across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will build towards the eastern seaboard Wednesday, allowing southwest return flow to increase across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a dry day to our region. Model point soundings suggest some low clouds in the morning, but these should break by afternoon with some sunshine developing. 850MB temps will climb towards 0C by afternoon. This will support highs in the mid 30s in most locations, with upper 20s to lower 30s east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. During this period an initial area of high pressure draped along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines will ever so slowly drift eastward . while a second and stronger surface ridge over Manitoba builds eastward and eventually merges with the initial ridge over eastern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes Together. these two features will help to keep developing low pressure over the Midwest and Ohio Valley confined far enough to our southwest to result in dry and uneventful weather prevailing across our area through the day Friday . though there will be a general increase in mid and high clouds through the period At the same time. the gradual warm air advection pattern that will be in place will drive a slow but steady day-to-day warming trend . with daytime highs warming into the lower to mid 40s pretty much everywhere by Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Moving on into the longer term portion of the forecast . low pressure over the Ohio Valley Friday evening will lift northeastward to about Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday . while gradually weakening as its energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward off the New England coastline Sunday and Sunday night . while lingering deep cyclonic flow across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building eastward from the Upper Great Lakes.

In terms of PoPs . increasing synoptic forcing and moisture attendant to the initial primary low and its parent upper level low will spread increasing precipitation chances from southwest to northeast Friday night and Saturday In the official forecast. have reflected this by spreading likely to categorical PoPs across far western New York Friday night . then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. The deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal system should then maintain at least a general likelihood of pcpn areawide Saturday night and Sunday . with the precip then quickly tapering off Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped away . and as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward into our region.

With regard to ptype . the precipitation may initially begin as some light rain Friday night . with steady cooling of the atmospheric column then driving a transition over to mainly wet snow as the night progresses During this transition period. a brief wintry mix cannot be ruled out dependent upon how quickly the boundary layer and a modest warm layer aloft cool relative to each other . however confidence in this remains too low for inclusion in the forecast given both the time frame and continued model differences in how thermal profiles will evolve. After that time . the precipitation should tend to be more in the way of wet snow through the remainder of the event . though marginal thermal profiles may still be supportive of some rain mixing back in again across the lower elevations during the day Saturday and again on Sunday.

While this system will be nowhere near as strong as the one that passed through our region this past weekend . it could still bring a notable water-laden snowfall to portions of our region from later Friday night through Sunday . with this potential heavily dependent on the eventual track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles across our region . all of which remains uncertain this far out in advance. At this point . it appears the best potential for such a snowfall will lie across our higher terrain . which should run a bit colder overall throughout the event.

Following the passage of this system . the aforementioned ridge will then build directly across our region and bring about a return to mainly dry weather for Monday and Tuesday . while temperatures will remain a bit above late January normals. Looking a bit further out beyond the end of this period . it appears as if the warmer than average temps should continue through at least the end of the month . with the GFS/GEM/ECMWF all in agreement on keeping any notable cold air bottled up well to our north over northern Canada.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. While VFR conditions will be found across the majority of the forecast area overnight . lake induced clouds east-northeast of both lakes will help to support MVFR cigs at KART and KBUF. The MVFR cigs at KJHW should lift as the steering flow for the residual Lake Erie activity continues to back to a more southwesterly direction.

There may still be some lake induced MVFR cigs around Wednesday morning at KBUF, KIAG and KART . those cigs will quickly give way to VFR weather Otherwise. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the region.

Outlook .

Thursday through Friday . Generally VFR. Saturday . MVFR/IFR possible with rain and wet snow. Saturday night and Sunday . MVFR/IFR possible in wet snow.

MARINE. Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the eastern seaboard by later Wednesday. A fairly tight pressure gradient will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a period of moderate west to southwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from late this afternoon through Wednesday evening. The pressure gradient will then relax from Wednesday night through Friday, with a period of light winds and flat wave action.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042- 045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/RSH NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/RSH SHORT TERM . JJR LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Hitchcock/RSH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	43 mi	40 min	SW 5.1 G 7	25°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	44 mi	58 min		22°F			1028.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	52 mi	58 min		22°F			1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY	54 mi	46 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	20°F	14°F	78%	1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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