Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waldoboro, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

6:35am Update... No notable changes with this update as the forecast remains on track. Temps did dip to around freezing through the mountain valleys as winds went calm overnight, but this won't interrupt the warm expected through the day today.

Previous...

What a difference a day makes... The low pressure and the upper level low that brought rain, cool temperatures, and breezy conditions through the weekend continues to move away from New England this morning. In its wake, high pressure steadily builds in through the day, bringing mostly sunny skies, an easing northwest breeze, and much warmer temperatures. Highs warm into the low 60s across the north and the higher terrain this afternoon, with upper 60s to low 70s expected downwind of the mountains. The northwesterly wind direction keeps the seabreeze away as well today, until maybe around sunset, allowing temps at the coast to warm up as well. Some cooler ocean air may drift in around sunset along the coast as the northwest flow becomes light by the end of the day.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Clear skies prevail through the evening. As the high pressure center moves off the East coast south of New England overnight, some high clouds do begin to filter in from the northwest. Lows likely fall into the low to mid 30s across the northern valleys tonight, the upper 30s in the some of the other more sheltered locations, and mainly 40s elsewhere. Temps initially fall through the evening, but after midnight likely hold steady or begin to slowly rise in spots as a southwesterly breeze begins to develop on the western side of the high.

The warming trend continues tomorrow across most of the area as southwesterly flow helps push temps into the mid to upper 70s across much of New Hampshire and western interior Maine. For the MidCoast and central Maine, the southwest wind direction keeps temperatures mainly in the 60s. The southern Maine coast is likely to be flirting with an onshore wind direction through the day, with low 60s likely at the beaches, and mid 70s just a few miles back.

Clouds begin to increase late in the day, especially across northern areas, as a cold front approaches from the west. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may reach northwestern New Hampshire and along the Canadian border by sunset, but otherwise the bulk of the shower activity holds off until tomorrow night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Late evening update...The 12Z Euro has trended away from a 500 mb closed low separated from the flow this weekend, but still shows a deep enough trough that chance POPs need to be continued for Saturday, while the GFS closes off the low, just farther N and E than previous runs. I have brought POPs down just a bit from NBM on Sunday. Otherwise the rest of the forecast is mostly in good shape and fairly benign other than some SHRA/TSRA in the mtns Tue night with a cold front.

Key Message: Very warm temps to start the period trend back to near normal for the late week/weekend. What looks like another unsettled...wet weekend is on tap.

Impacts: No significant weather anticipated. Will have to keep an eye on frontal timing Tue...as an earlier arrival could introduce more chance of thunder and stronger storms. Also some potential Wed for gusty winds and low RH values to overlap during the afternoon...but there will not be much time for fuels to dry out.

Forecast Details:

Front is expected to arrive overnight...but convection will be ongoing to our west. Some of that may be quite strong. There is a good signal for severe weather across parts of central and western NY. If we can maintain some instability and convection holds together after dark...faster than normal unidirectional westerly winds thru the column could support some gusty storms mainly in the mtns. The chances for convection holding together really decrease south of the mtns.

Wed will be much cooler than Tue but still near to above normal in most places before colder air arrives. In the elevations however it will be a return to winter-like conditions. The higher summits will see single digit wind chills and gusts at or above 100 mph at times. So do not let the warmth Tue bring a false sense of security if you plan to visit the summits.

The next chance for rain begins Fri as a warm front lifts into the area
QPF signal is pretty strong at this range
especially Fri with the warm front. It does look like there will be a break behind the front followed by more showery...convective precip Sat.
The Sat precip is more uncertain across the area. I have some high chance/low likely PoP Fri followed by chance on Sat to account for this.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...Once lingering fog clears from LEB by mid morning, VFR prevails through Tuesday. Northwest winds gust to around 15-20kt today, then become light tonight. Southwest winds likely gust to around 20-25kt during the afternoon on Tuesday.

Long Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the end of the work week. Front crosses the region late Tue night but SHRA or TSRA look to be widely scattered to isolated south of the mtns. Best chances would be in the vicinity of HIE to LEB.

MARINE
Short Term...High pressure builds in today as low pressure moves off to the east. The high moves offshore south of New England tonight. A cold front approaches from the west tomorrow, with a freshening southwesterly wind bringing SCA conditions to the outer waters tomorrow afternoon.

Long Term...Southwesterly LLJ ahead of the cold front Tue may see some marginal SCA gusts around 25 kt and seas building to near 5 ft outside of the bays. High pressure builds in Wed and winds and seas diminish. Warm front lifts into the region Fri and unsettled weather is expected thru the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astronomical tides are expected tonight, with a tide of 11.8ft at Portland shortly after midnight. With little wave action and a slightly negative surge from the northwest flow, impacts are not expected, but its worth noting that tides will be running within a few inches of flood stage.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.