Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beaverton, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 332 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Pattern/synopsis: We don't see single-digits RHs here very often, but OSC and W Branch have both been there this afternoon, and other sites in the south are close. Ridging is present surface and aloft over northern lower MI. At the surface, high pressure is to our west, but still extending a ridge westward and keeping return flow from getting too ambitious. At 500mb, a narrow ene- ese ridge axis is pushing northward.

Forecast: That northward push is thanks in part to an upper low, moving northward from the deep south. Initial cirrus ahead of this system in pushing into se zones. Cloud cover will increase, thicken, and lower with time tonight and Tuesday. It will take some time for this airmass to be altered into one that can generate precip. But, as ridging shifts northward, and as southerly 1km winds increase to 20-25kt at times, moisture return will be more efficient. Not enough to generate anything resembling widespread precip in the short-term. But chance pops arrive in the far se after 3am tonight. This will slowly edge northward in the morning, still largely staying south of M-72.
Models are portraying a little bit instability developing in the pm over far northern lower MI, with enough BL moisture but also more breaks in the clouds to allow destabilization. Small chances for showers will expand across most of northern lower MI.

Lows tonight milder with increasing clouds and a warm start, mid 50s to near 60f. Highs Tuesday mainly near 70f to the mid 70s, but cooler near Lk Huron and far eastern upper MI.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 332 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

This AFD will be very repetitive to yesterdays forecast as the pattern remains locked in with midlevel low pressure advecting into the Ohio valley this week, thus pushing a warm and moist surface air mass into the Great Lakes region for the next several days. This system remains rather disheveled as it is weakening with time, only generating a few convectively driven showers and storms through the midweek. At the same time; shortwave troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest with strong midlevel geostrophic flow will continue this active weather pattern, expecting have some real energy with it compared to the southern stream trough. Moisture and instability building across the region throughout the week will provide fuel for some convective activity Thursday evening as a cold front is expected to traverse across the CWA Heights begin to rise at the end of the week around the Saturday night-Sunday timeframe resulting in a brief period of subsidence returning high pressure to start off next week.

Key Messages:

Shower and storm chances return at times this Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Watching for potential severe weather Thursday night: Guidance continues to show signs of convective weather Thursday night across the Midwest. Latest model soundings are showing favorable signs of more active weather with a deep saturated warm coulomb and moderate lapse rates Thursday night along with PWAT values now around climatological maxima for mid May (about 1.5"). Besides the heavy rain potential; shear values ahead of the frontal passage of 20-30s knots, ideal mid-level lapse rates, and strong enough CAPE values indicate the potential of some severe storms for the CWA Severe parameters at this time are not "textbook with all the boxes checked" but nonetheless favor the potential of a few storms producing criteria level hail or wind gusts. Biggest thing riding against is the potential for warnings is the frontal passage overnight and pattern recognition leans toward more heavy convective rain for most areas rather than severe storms. Still a bit of time between now and then, so details with the forecast will likely change as CAM guidance start sampling this feature.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Light winds tonight, becoming southeast on Tuesday with gusts 15 to 20 KTs possible. Moisture begins to increase as well, with high level CIGs gradually dropping to low end VFR by Tuesday morning and through the day. Locations most susceptible to MVFR CIGs will be KMBL and KTVC. Few showers will be possible across northern lower through the day on Tuesday, but very isolated in nature which precludes inclusion in TAFs.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.