Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:02PM Friday December 6, 2019 3:06 PM EST (20:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 1:56AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 404 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201912061615;;929298 FZUS53 KDTX 060904 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 404 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-061615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 061856 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 156 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1126 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Morning composite analysis reveals our short-wave/1.5 PV anomaly dipping through the northern Great Lakes. Attending surface low pressure is over far western New York state with a cold front the extends southwestward into the mid Mississippi River Valley. Lake aggregate troughing arcs from the western U.P. across southeast Lake Superior and down into northern Lake Huron.

Overnight synoptic snowfall is of course long gone at this point. We had subtle low level convergence axis/feature of some sort slide through the region earlier this morning that briefly produced a narrow line of enhanced snowfall. That has also passed by with remaining snow showers settling into the more traditional NW flow banding. A few modestly heavier snow bands with a Lake Superior connection cut through parts of NW Lower Michigan and the tip of the mitt.

Lake effect conditions are at their best right now with lake induced CAPE values running 200-400 J/KG per Bufkit soundings and some lingering low level moisture. But surface high pressure across Midwest this morning will be building across the western Great Lakes as we go through the day and will lead to decreasing inversion heights/lake induced CAPE and an overall decreasing trend in lake effect snows. I have increased daytime snow amounts just a bit for areas where some of the heavier snowbands are likely to persist . but still under 2 inches for the day.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Impactful weather: Minimal. Light snows departing to light lake effect which will wane by this evening. A touch more light snow possible tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A fast moving shortwave and associated weak low pressure/clipper, was moving into nrn Michigan early this morning, with a large expanse of light snow impacting much of the region. The light snow was being driven by WAA and DPVA, and this forcing was now maximized out over Lake Huron, while the back edge of the snow was moving through the western portions of the CWA. A light westerly flow across nrn Lake Michigan, combined with sufficient overlake instability, likely provided at least a little lake enhancement to the snow across far NW/nrn lower, while RUC soundings suggested lift maximized in the DGZ, especially over areas along and north of M-32 in nrn lower. This was noticed at the office, with decent sized dendrites coming down for a time. Behind the low pressure in WI and western Lake Superior, the pressure gradient was tightening up, and gusty NW winds were ushering in colder air. Further west, higher pressure was moving into the nrn/central Plains.

The light synoptic/possible lake enhanced snow, will continue departing off to the east, and will be gone by daybreak, with that tightening pressure gradient and cold advection via gusty NW winds, settling in this morning. This will lead to scattered nuisance light lake effect snow showers focused primarily between TVC/PLN, and scraping by the NE lower shoreline from Rogers City through Alpena. Inversion heights will only be around 4-4.5kft, with some semblance of that shallow moisture, shallowing out further through the afternoon. In addition, the upstream higher pressure and drier air nudges in later today, with the 1000-850mb flow turning more anticyclonic. Therefore, would expect any overlake convection to weaken/wane by late day/evening. This process continues through tonight, with winds backing around out of the WSW, while a weak shortwave arrives late tonight. The overlake instability is still there, while less than stellar synoptic moisture arrives. Fcst soundings are fairly unimpressive, but there's a decent enough chance for patchy light snow/redeveloping scattered light lake effect to impact eastern upper and far NW/nrn lower. Most all of nrn Michigan will see snow amounts under an inch, with only the most favored NW flow regimes seeing around an inch (higher terrain NW lower and Chippewa county in eastern upper).

High temperatures will mostly be in the 30F-35F range, with lows tonight mostly in the teens, lower 20s coastal areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Light lake effect Saturday, wet and a little milder Sunday .

Synopsis/Forecast: A weak wave slides across lake Huron early in the day before heights start to rebound across Michigan. At the surface high pressure be just starting to push off to our southeast, allowing southwest winds become more southerly through the day. Our next system starts in the southern Canadian Rockies Saturday, treking toward Hudson Bay overnight, then into Quebec on Sunday. This leaves us in a psuedo-warm sector late Saturday into Sunday, with a cold front finally swinging down through Michigan Sunday night into Monday.

Sufficient overlake instability and a 4 kft DGZ over lake michigan will keep lake effect going into portions of Leelanua and the ern UP. We loose low level moisture as winds back to the south through the afternoon. 850mb temperatures also start to warm up and inversion heights sink through the afternoon and evening, effectively reducing any snow to flurries during this timeframe and overnight.

Southwesterly winds increase overnight into Sunday morning as the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the incoming system. A 40-50 kt LLJ helps bring a surge of 'warm' moist air northward. PWATs climb to above a half inch (+1 St Dev above normal). 850mb temperature rise above freezing through midday with surface temperatures warming into the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday afternoon. Precipitation will be all rain for nrn lower, and likely even ern upper as the lowest 2 kft of the column stay above freezing. Total QPF from the rain looks light as overall dynamics and forcing for lift doesn't get too crazy. Rain slowly mixes with and then changes over to snow late Sunday night/early Monday morning as the cold front moves in. During the night an upper level wave dives southeast into the central Plains, spinning up a surface low near Kansas. This low quickly rides up along the existing cold front.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

High Impact Weather: Strong winter storm with strong winds and multiple precipitation types possible

An elongated area of low pressure moves toward southern Michigan through the morning. Discrepancies still abound with the intensity and timing, but the general consensus is intensification as the low moves into southeastern Ontario. P-type issues are likely through the day Monday, and are heavily dependent on the choice of model right now. The GFS is more bullish, both with the warm nose and the very cold air undercutting it. The farther south/weaker Canadian gives mainly light to moderate snow, with the Euro in between. Given performance of the long range Canadian in the past few storm systems, am leaning more toward a GFS/Euro blend. In fact the latest Canadian has came more in line with the others: stronger and more northwest. Arctic air pours into the Midwest and Great Lakes following this system. 850mb temps drop into the negative mid-20s, with single digits overnight lows looking more and more likely. Deep troughing rotates over Hudson Bay Tuesday and Wednesday, likely bringing multiple rounds of lake effect through midweek. High pressure moves in late in the week, bringing quieter conditions.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 156 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Northwest flow lake snow showers will linger across northern Lower Michigan this afternoon. Most dominant/heavier snow showers will impact areas between TVC and PLN with lighter snow outside those areas. Another mix of MVFR to VFR CIGS can be expected through the afternoon.

Snow showers diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the region with CIGS trending more toward the VFR side. But another weak system will slip into the region late tonight through Saturday morning. Main impact will be to bring an uptick in lake effect snow showers for areas from mbL to PLN as winds back southwesterly by Saturday morning.

MARINE. Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

Advisory level winds are likely across all nearshore waters today and for many into this evening, behind low pressure and a cold front crossing the region early this morning. This will be a relatively quick shot of gusty winds, as an axis of higher pressure sweeps through tonight. The gradient remains somewhat tighter across Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay into Saturday, for possibly some advisory gusts every now and then, but it's not until late Saturday through Sunday, when the gradient really tightens up. This will be in response to low pressure crossing nrn Ontario, and a cold front draping back across Lake Superior by Sunday. Advisories look to be a given, and gales seem likely for many in strong SW flow and good mixing from overlake instability.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-342- 344. GALE WATCH from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341-345- 346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . BA MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi67 min NW 19 G 25 31°F 1021 hPa (+2.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi87 min WNW 17 G 21 31°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi87 min NW 11 G 18 31°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi12 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast32°F25°F76%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4E3E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW6NW7NW5NW5W5NW7NW4NW8
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1 day agoW7W6W7W7W7W4W8W3W4W6W7W8W5W4CalmW3W3NW5W4W4W4W3W4W3
2 days agoSW5S6S4S3S4SW6SW5SW4W5SW5SW5W5CalmW3SW4W6W4W6W6W5W5W6W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.