Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:26PM Sunday September 27, 2020 11:39 AM EDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1100 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds around 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy late in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening, then light showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Light showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202009272115;;446768 FZUS53 KDTX 271500 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-272115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 271254 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 854 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 853 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Weakening cold front making its way across the area this morning, with this frontal passage largely remaining dry as mid level support has now detached well off to the north. Deepening southwest flow aloft and slowly approaching upstream shortwave trough attempting to drum up some elevated frontogenetical forcing. Seeing some occasional light returns on radar, but no rain reported reaching the surface with a relatively dry sub-cloud base environment. Expect fgen forcing to slowly increase through today, perhaps eventually allowing some of those spotty showers to reach the surface, especially as we head into later this afternoon. Still plenty mild today, with highs ranging from the mid and upper 60s northwest, to the mid and upper 70s across northeast lower Michigan (warmest down near Saginaw Bay).

NEAR TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

. Rainy weather continues .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal at this juncture. Period of heavier rainfall anticipated tonight into Monday. May have to keep an eye on heavy rainfall potential for later tonight through Monday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Larger scale troughiness continues to amplify across south-central Canada into the northern Plains spurred on by strong short-wave energy swinging across Minnesota toward western Lake Superior. Associated upper jet core extends from the central Plains across Lake Superior. Surface low pressure has developed in response across northern Wisconsin into the central U.P. with a semblance of a warm front arcing eastward into Ontario and most of Michigan sitting within the warm sector.

Bulk of remaining rainfall is pressing northward across Lake Superior into Ontario . along and north of the boundary. Still a narrow corridor of elevated CAPE pushing 500 J/Kg from Wisconsin northeastward through eastern Upper Michigan that will shift eastward across the region this morning. Some spotty shower activity continues along that axis, mainly from central Upper Michigan into Lake Superior.

Further upstream, Another piece of strong short-wave energy is digging southeastward through Montana within the broader scale trough. Wave will continue to dive southeastward into the central Plains through tonight leading to significant trough amplification across the Midwest along with colder air diving into the Midwest and eventually the western Great Lakes for the first half of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Continuing precip chances as upper trough amplification commences. Prospect for heavy rainfall Sunday night through Monday.

Details: Morning hours should be dry for most, barring any goofy narrow line of convection developing such as we had yesterday that is. That said, eastern Upper and parts of NW Lower Michigan may yet see a few showers slide through this morning as surface low, elevated instability axis and some semblance of boundary/trough slide up through the region.

Meanwhile, gradual upper level height falls and a tightening thermal gradient develops across the Midwest and into northern Michigan as we go through the day along with a narrow axis of f-gen and upper jet forcing. Anticipate the threat for showers to increase in an expanding corridor from the Midwest northeastward into the area as we go through the afternoon with the greatest threat potentially across the coastal areas of NW Lower Michigan into eastern Upper Michigan. Otherwise, another day of relatively mild temperatures expected. Warmest readings (and dry weather) will be across the SE counties where mid to high 70s are expected.

Tonight: Full on larger scale trough amplification takes shape across the midwest into the western Great Lakes shifting axis of strong ascent across Lower Michigan, as second piece of short- wave energy continues to dig into the region heading into Monday. Narrow axis of ongoing showers should follow suit and further expand/pivot into the region tonight with the most persistent rainfall looking to slide up through north central and northeast Lower Michigan. Instability and thunder threat remain low at this point. Just an overall soggy night particularly across northeast Lower Michigan.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

. Rain expected, especially Monday .

High impact weather potential: Heavy rainfall Monday?

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops and rainfall amounts through the period.

Jet energy (140 knots at 250 mb) emerging out of the Rockies moves eastward across the Plains and joins forces with a short wave diving southeast out of north central Canada (currently evident on water vapor imagery over northern Manitoba) to spin up an area of surface low pressure in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This setup will likely lead to a period of rain across much if not all of northern Michigan early in the week. Some model guidance has quite a bit of rainfall and this will have to be monitored by future shifts. Will not totally buy into the higher rainfall forecasts quite yet with wpc rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half inch on Monday looking okay for now. Cyclonic flow, wrap around moisture in combination with marginal over lake instability into Tuesday is then expected to lead to additional rain showers. Cooler with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Lows ranging through the 40s.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

. Showery and Turning Much Cooler .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

No big changes in extended guidance over the strengthening upper level ridge along the west coast forcing downstream troughing across the Great Lakes. Short waves moving through the trough in combination with increasing over lake instability will lead to periodic bouts of lake effect showers along with progressively cooler temperatures. Extended guidance drops 850 mb temperatures down to as low as -5 C or so by the end of the week near Whitefish Point which is getting awfully close to being cold enough for wet snow flakes to mix in with the rain, but a warm boundary layer is expected to win out keeping precipitation all liquid (at least at this point it is). Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday are expected to be replaced by the chilly mid 40s to mid 50s for the remainder of the period.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 708 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Gusty south to southwest winds persist through this morning before diminishing through the afternoon.

Overall VFR conditions will persist across northern Lower Michigan today and much of tonight, although there may be a brief window of lower MVFR cloud cover slide across the region this morning as a surface trough passes through.

Meanwhile, a narrow axis of showers/sprinkles will nose into the region from the SW as we go through the day, particularly across NW Lower Michigan. Shower coverage increases and expands across northern Michigan tonight. Lower MVFR ceilings will spread into northern Lower Michigan late overnight into Monday morning and push MVFR CIGS into PLN, TVC, and mbL late.

MARINE. Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Gusty S/SW winds continue into today but will weaken heading into tonight. Small craft advisories will continue on Lake Michigan for today but should be allowed to expire thereafter. Lighter winds and waves anticipated tonight and Monday. But stronger winds return Monday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ016- 020-025-031-099. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT through this evening for MIZ095-096-098. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ345>347-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341-342- 344-345. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi100 min SW 21 G 24 66°F 1004.4 hPa (+1.0)
45163 44 mi40 min SSW 12 G 14 68°F 3 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi60 min SSW 9.9 G 17 66°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi60 min SW 9.9 G 16 69°F 1004.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi45 minWSW 11 G 1610.00 miOvercast71°F61°F73%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW3SW6S8S7S8S11SE6CalmCalmS3S5S4S6S3S3CalmSE3S4CalmS3S4S5S5S5
2 days agoNW3S4SW7SW3N4N4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4CalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.