Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday April 22, 2021 9:32 AM EDT (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 348 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202104221515;;933103 FZUS53 KDTX 220748 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 348 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-221515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 220942 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 542 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal/none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing was moving into the eastern states early this morning, with ridging working into the nrn Plains and Central Canada. A weak shortwave with minimal forcing on the backside of the troughing was crossing nrn Michigan, while CU debris/convection from WI yesterday evening continues to work eastward across nrn lower Michigan. This is likely aided is some fashion by still cold enough lower level temperatures for overlake instability and subsequent moisture flux off the Great Lakes. Otherwise, low level temperatures were moderating, with low to mid level warm advection on the rise, ahead of the upstream upper ridging.

The weak shortwave exits this morning, while the upstream ridging marches eastward, settling over nrn Michigan by daybreak Friday. The current convective debris/snow showers are expected to decay this morning, probably in some degree by pressing further away from Lake Michigan. The weather becomes pretty quiet, with just maybe a few to scattered high-based cumulus over NE lower, and some increased high level cloud spilling in via northerly upper level winds ahead of the approaching ridging. Skies will be decreasing in cloudiness by evening, with clear/mostly clear skies for most of tonight. The entire time, low to mid level temperatures continue to warm, and we start breaking this recent cold snap.

High temperatures will mostly be 45F to 50F, with some lower 50s in downsloping areas in the far SE CWA. Lows will mostly be in the low to mid 30s with upper 30s across much of the GTV Bay region/coastal counties of Lake Michigan. Thus, do not think another freeze warning for agriculture interests there will be needed.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Pattern Synopsis:

An amplified trough will continue to work its way off the Atlantic coast as temporary ridging slides overhead on Friday. Subsidence aloft behind this trough will build surface high pressure across most of the eastern CONUS heading into the weekend. Two separate shortwaves are expected to progress across the Midwest and far SE CONUS Saturday, providing favorable ascent aloft to support cyclogenesis/surface pressure falls across these respective regions.

Forecast/Details:

Friday will be a pleasant spring day for most of the CWA, especially when compared to the first half of this week. Highs look to reach into the 50s with low 60s across NE lower underneath partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. A very dry low-level airmass will be in place which will keep the first half of the period precip-free. The main focus will be Saturday when the next rain chances - and potentially some more flakes of snow ( . sigh . ) - arrive, beginning in the early AM hours. Support aloft provided by the aforementioned shortwave will help spark some showers along somewhat nebulous surface convergence - call it an ill-defined, elongated surface trough, or even a sad warm front if you'd like - that looks to stretch from SW to NE across a chunk of northern lower. The best chance for Saturday AM showers is expected to be along this subtle forcing across the southern half of the CWA, especially with closer proximity to Saginaw Bay. Additional chances will exist across eastern upper where these respective showers may last into the late morning/early afternoon.

A second round of precip is expected to initiate along and ahead of an approaching cold front moving in from Wisconsin Saturday afternoon/evening. These rain showers are expected to initiate across far NW lower and migrate eastward across the area with time Saturday evening. Once again, rain showers will also be possible across eastern upper behind the front. Some heavier downpours may be possible with the presence of non-zero instability confined to the low/mid levels despite cool surface temperatures. As the low-level profile cools rather quickly heading into Saturday night with cold advection behind the front and the cessation of diurnal heating, snowflakes may mix in with ongoing precip. Additionally, light lake effect snow can't be ruled out as NW winds spread across the area the further we go into Saturday night despite marginal conditions to support it. As this week has shown, you can't underestimate the Great Lakes' willpower to generate nuisance snow - especially this late in April. It just does not want to let go of winter, unlike most of us around here that are ready for a real spring.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring the middle of next week for active weather.

The aforementioned shortwave should quickly progress east of the Great Lakes on Sunday as amplified upper-level ridging takes ahold of the eastern CONUS at the start of next week. Southerly low-level winds on the backside of dominant surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic coast will advect a warm, moist - and essentially summer-like - airmass northward all the way into the Great Lakes by Tuesday. Highs in the 70s are expected across northern lower Tuesday afternoon, which would be around 15 degrees warmer than normal for the end of April.

The main focus of the long term will be the return of a more active pattern to round out the month. Highly amplified troughing is expected to gradually slide across the center of the country through the middle of next week, providing support aloft for systems to trek across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. While specifics regarding feature placement and strength are very murky, enough confidence exists in deterministic and ensemble guidance to take note of this period ahead. Current confidence lies in a less progressive pattern than some model depictions (ECMWF) through the middle of next week as guidance typically struggles to handle strong, amplified ridging correctly - specifically how long they stay put. That being said, belief is that the pattern will feature more meridional flow through the troposphere with increasingly amplifying upper-level features and, when combined with an airmass that may push climatological max PWAT values, could be an early signal towards heavy rainfall potential for the Great Lakes during the middle/end of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

. VFR the entire TAF period .

High pressure will drift across the lower Mississippi valley and toward the mid Atlantic/SE states tonight. A sfc ridge axis will drive through nrn Michigan, shifting westerly winds more SW late today and tonight, with some minor gustiness expected this afternoon. FEW-SCT high based cumulus expected today at APN with added high level cloud at all airports. The cumulus and higher cloud fade this evening with skies becoming clear/mostly clear.

MARINE. Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

High pressure will drift across the lower Mississippi valley and toward the mid Atlantic/SE states tonight. A sfc ridge axis will drive through nrn Michigan, shifting westerly winds more SW today and tonight. Low end advisory gusts are expected this afternoon for far nrn Lakes Michigan and Huron, and possibly again Friday afternoon in the same areas. Afternoon lake breezes/onshore flow expected today and tomorrow on Whitefish Bay and for the nearshore waters south of Alpena.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-021-025- 026-031-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi32 min W 18 G 21 33°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi52 min WSW 17 G 21 32°F 1016.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi52 min W 8.9 G 12 33°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi50 minW 10 G 1410.00 miFair34°F27°F75%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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NW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5
1 day agoW9W9NW11
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NW9N6NW8NW7N6N7NW7NW5N5N4CalmNW3NW5NW5NW3W3NW6
2 days agoS8SW11
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W6W6SW5W5W4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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