Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beaverton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:39PM Saturday August 17, 2019 12:51 PM EDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:03PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1004 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy late in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Light showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Light showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908172115;;777935 FZUS53 KDTX 171404 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1004 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beaverton, MI
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location: 43.88, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 171407
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1007 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
Issued at 1007 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
short-wave trough axis is in the process of crossing the eastern
half of lower michigan this morning with a tight circulation
center noted on satellite imagery crossing eastern upper and
northeast lower michigan. Surface low pressure is centered over
eastern upper michigan as of 13z with a trough cold front arcing
southeastward through southern ontario. Last nights showers storms
are now well east of the region. But there is a small batch of
showers rotating through NE lower michigan north of m-32 along the
southern flank of the short-wave circulation.

Meanwhile... A fair amount of cloud cover is rotating through the
forecast area on the backside of the system. Cloud cover still
retains a bit of a convective component look owing to some
residual instability still across the region.

Rest of the day: cloud cover will be the biggest issue. Remaining
spotty showers across NE lower michigan will slip E SE with the
short-wave circulation over the next few hours. Drier air will
gradually spread into the region. But given the shallow cool air
and now daytime heating, it will likely take a good part of the
day to finally mix thin out cloud cover substantially, especially
across the northern eastern parts of the forecast area. But the
overall trend will be for increasing sunshine... Eventually.

Temperatures are starting from fairly mild readings this morning
and should have no trouble warming into and through the 70s,
particularly for southern counties where there will be more
sunshine.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Early clouds fog should give way to more Sun later...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: midnight surface composite analysis shows
a weak 1008mb low center over northern green bay with a cold front
arcing back to the southwest into northern il southeast ia. Weak
bubble of high pressure was located behind the front along the mn ia
border. Water vapor imagery shows several vorticity centers
embedded within a couple of dynamic PV anomalies stretching from far
northern ontario south southwest into wi northern ia. Along this
same PV axis that stretches back into NE sd is another small
disturbance over south central sd. Axis of low level moisture (0-
1km mixing ratio >13g kg) across ks along the mo ia border into
il northwest in... Narrow low level theta-e ridge extends northward
along the lake michigan shoreline. This instability axis
interacting with short wave energy crossing lake michigan pushing a
line of showers thunderstorms across parts of eastern upper
northeast lower michigan early this morning. Area of st starting to
expand across central eastern upper and lake superior.

Short wave trough and associated cold front expected to cross lower
michigan this morning... With a little weak short wave ridging in its
wake this afternoon. Disturbance over sd early this morning
expected to cross northern lower tonight... With increasing southerly
low level flow warm advection into the upper great lakes ahead of a
strong short wave trough digging into the northern plains.

Primary forecast concerns: initial area of showers east of the i-75
corridor exiting quickly stage right... Most of this activity will be
long gone by sunrise. Low clouds will probably continue to increase
in coverage... Can't rule out some drizzle across the straits region
south into the higher terrain of northern lower this morning. But
the trend should be toward more sunshine this afternoon as existing
clouds mix into a CU deck.

Tonight... Combination of approaching cold front and increasing
isentropic ascent along developing low level jet likely to fire off
another MCS over the midwest (probably somewhere over the eastern
portions sd ne... Southern mn western ia). Northern fringes of this
activity may try to push into western lower early Sunday
morning... Though the tendency may be for organized convection to
propagate a little south of east (and perhaps away from the forecast
area). Some more fog st possible especially the farther north you
go.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
high impact weather potential: thunderstorms possible Sunday
and Sunday night... None expected to become severe.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a cold front associated with a low pressure system over james bay
will sweep through the great lakes region Sunday night. Ahead of
said cold front warm air advection precipitation will begin Sunday
morning. Pwats will gradually increase as southwesterly winds advect
gulf moisture into the forecast area. Forecast soundings prog about
400-500 j kg MLCAPE Sunday, which gives way to the possibility of
thunderstorms. 0-6km bulk shear values of only 20-30kts and lapse
rates of only around 5 c km will limit any storms that do develop to
become severe. Main threat will be heavy rain and frequent
lightning, as forecast soundings have very skinny CAPE profiles.

South to southwesterly winds will increase throughout the day Sunday
as aforementioned cold front approaches, with some gusts near 20-25
mph possible. Winds will become northwesterly Sunday night through
Monday morning, but be rather light, as surface high pressure builds
into the great lakes. This high pressure will maintain a
precipitation free Monday and Tuesday, with daytime highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid
50s. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast Monday and remain
mostly clear through much of Tuesday.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
high impact weather potential... None is expected.

The long term models are in agreement with this period mostly being
under surface high pressure in zonal flow... With the exception of
Tuesday night, when models show a very weak cold front and
associated moisture from another low pressure system near james bay
sweeping through the great lakes region. This may fire off some
showers and rumbles of thunder, but surface high pressure and drier
air immediately slide in behind the departing boundary and
diminishes rain chances for the rest of the forecast period.

Temperatures will cool Wednesday, only reaching into the low to mid
70s for most, and even cooler Thursday, with some locations possibly
not even reaching 70. Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit
each day after.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 658 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
period of MVFR conditions this morning (ifr at mbl) will gradually
improve toVFR by early afternoon (though will likely be at mbl
later this morning).

Marine
Issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
not much wind or wave activity to deal with in the near
term... Gradient may be light enough to support some minimally
intrusive lake breeze development this afternoon on lake huron and
the southeast shore of the upper peninsula. Winds will begin to
become more southerly overnight and increase into Sunday. Some
marginally small craft conditions possible on lake michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Jpb
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Jpb
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 37 mi52 min WSW 14 G 16 72°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.3)
45163 44 mi32 min WSW 9.7 G 12 75°F 72°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 48 mi72 min WSW 8 G 11 71°F 1012.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 58 mi72 min W 8.9 G 12 72°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI17 mi73 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F61°F54%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S6S8S7SW5S5CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4S6S10
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1 day agoCalmE6NE3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalm
2 days agoE6NE5NE5NE6NE5NE6NE5NE6NE5NE5NE3E5CalmCalmE3NW3NW3N3N4N3N4NE3E4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.