Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brunswick, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
1030 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to the temperatures at this hour based on latest trends in observationaldata. Light rain continues across much of the region. A few heavier showers will likely occur across southernmost NH overnight as that area will be closer to a mid level warm front with less stability overhead. A rumble of thunder there cannot be ruled out.

640 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Light rain continues to eat through the dry layer and is gradually overspreading the region. High PoPs in place but rain is not expected to be heavy.

Previously...

Rain will continue to overspread the region late this afternoon and early this evening from west to east. A surface low pressure will exit the Ohio Valley and reach the southern New England coastline tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the west as well. Model soundings suggest there will be sufficiently cold air in place across the mountains to allow the rain to mix with snow over the higher terrain. By morning, temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the north with upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
A dry slot will reach southern areas by the early morning hours on Monday. This will change any leftover showers to drizzle as the upper level low remains to our west with plenty of low level moisture in place. Patchy fog will remain in place as well during the morning. Higher pops will be confined across the north with some light accumulations of snow across the highest elevations. There will be a large range in high temperatures with low clouds and only 30s across the mountain. Southern areas will top out in the 40s to mid 50s.

The atmosphere will shift to an upslope pattern in the mountains Monday night as a gusty northwesterly gradient develops over the region as low pressure intensifies over the Canadian Maritimes.
Any rain showers will change to snow showers over the higher terrain due to the effects of wet bulbing. There will be a well mixed layer in place which will keep all portions of the forecast area in the 30s for overnight lows.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Overview: A negative NAO and positive PNA will persist through the middle of this week, which will continue to favor broad troughing and cool temperatures across the Northeast. This pattern will then begin to break down by the end of the week and the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds to the south and west, with gradually warming temperatures. No major storm systems are expected through the extended portion of the forecast.

Impacts: The first frost/freeze of the season is likely for coastal locations this week.

Forecast Details: vertically stacked low pressure will remain over southern Canada and near the Crown of ME on Tuesday and Tuesday night with a positively tilted h5 trough axis overhead. Temperatures aloft will be on the cool side with 850 mb temperatures between -3C to -5C and 925 mb temperatures around +3C. This will result in high temperatures into the lower to middle 40s across the north with lower to middle 50s south. Upslope west-northwesterly winds will promote a scattered showers across the north with temperature profiles supporting mostly snow across the higher elevations with some light accumulations possible. Downsloping flow further to the south will allow for partly cloudy skies. Wind gusts between 20-25 mph will keep windchill values into the 40s across the south with lower 30s north. A weak vort max looks to cross Tuesday evening with scattered showers potentially extending further south into the foothills and parts of the interior. Skies will otherwise remain partly cloudy with CAA sending low temperatures into the 30s in most locations.

Low pressure will begin to drift further to our northeast on Wednesday but temperatures aloft will continue to cool as the h5 trough becomes more neutrally tilted. It could be the coldest day of the season so far for many locations with highs struggling to warm out of the 30s across the north with readings into the 40s to lower 50s south and along the coast. Brisk northwesterly flow will make it feel even cooler with once again upslope showers of rain and snow across the north and mountains. Skies on Wednesday night will range from partly cloudy to mostly clear from north to south with low temperatures falling below freezing across the north with readings within a few degrees either side of the freezing mark further south and along the coast.

Geopotential heights will begin to rise on Thursday ahead of an h5 ridge axis to our west and sfc high over the Ohio River Valley. Sfc winds will begin to take a slightly more southwesterly trajectory with temperatures aloft warming some. This will allow for a slightly warmer afternoon with highs into the middle to upper 40s across the north and 50s to near 60 degrees south. Thursday night could feature our best radiational cooling conditions as sfc high pressure builds over the region. This could result in a widespread freeze across much of the region, including the coast. A large dome of high pressure then builds over the eastern CONUS Friday through the upcoming weekend with dry conditions and near to above average temperatures likely.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...IFR and LIFR conditions expected tonight in rain.
There will be some late night drizzle and fog as well. On monday, conditions will improve to VFR over southern areas while mostly rain showers continue in the north with IFR conditions.
The low ceiling will continue across the northern mountains Monday night.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with west-northwesterly winds at 10-20 kts (highest during the daytime). The exception will be at KHIE where upslope flow could result in MVFR CIGS and scattered showers.

MARINE
Short Term...A northeast flow will back to the north later tonight and Monday. A northwesterly gradient flow then increases Monday night allow for the potential for SCA thresholds to be breached.

Long Term...West-northwesterly winds could approach 25 kts on Tuesday with seas of 3-6 ft, and this may require an SCA.
Otherwise, winds and seas to largely remain below thresholds hazardous to small crafts.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150>154.