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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 315 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain this evening. A chance of snow until early morning, then snow likely late. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.

ANZ100 315 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm northeast winds continue to bring conditions hazardous to small craft this evening, but seas begin to trend down as low pressure pulls away into the north atlantic. Winds subside tonight with chances for snow showers into tonight. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected on the waters much of the week. A low pressure system could bring gales late in the weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 042017 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 317 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cloudy skies with some light snow or snow showers are likely tonight. A drying trend follows Tuesday with cooler and mostly dry conditions through the balance of the week. Temperatures moderate into the weekend with the next widespread precipitation event arriving late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Our coastal system has moved well into the North Atlantic and only a few lingering snow showers have been left behind, mainly in the mountains. A shortwave trough will be diving through the area tonight and interact with an inverted surface trough. With temperatures dropping into the 20s tonight across the area, this will renew chances for snow showers. The MidCoast has the highest chance of seeing 0.5-1 inch of new snow overnight, but some spread in the hi res models suggest the entire Maine and New Hampshire coast could see accumulating snow and thusly slippery travel for morning commute.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Shortwave ridging builds in tomorrow which will keep us mostly dry with partly cloudy skies. Upslope flow could keep snow showers going in the mountains and with low Froude numbers they would stay there. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30s south of the mountains and 20s north, where thicker clouds will prevail.

Clouds will thicken across the area again tomorrow night as a deeper trough approaches the area. Northerly winds will help temperatures drop into the low 20s and teens south of the mountains with single digits in the north. Surface low pressure will be passing well offshore but enough forcing for ascent will be present toward day break to bring light snow showers to the coast, with little to no accumulation expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The long term portion of the forecast starts with a gradually departing upper level trough and chilly but dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. A warming trend then develops for Thursday and Friday as deep level ridging moves in with continued dry weather expected.

The forecast then becomes interesting over the weekend as a piece of the low pressure system currently just south of Alaska moves southeastward, crosses the Rockies and dives into the deep south on Friday. Latest deterministic models and ensembles are in reasonable agreement at this time range that this storm system will indeed affect our region by Sunday or Monday so that we can place high PoPs at some point during that time period.
However, there are differences in degree of trough amplification and speed when the system gets into the southern states and then northeastward. So timing and strength is still uncertain and therefore any impacts.

A good portion of the guidance suite takes the strengthening SFC low northeastward through the Great lakes and then to our NW in Canada keeping our region of the relatively warm and rainy side as anomalous ridging holds to our northeast and east. Given the current progs of a 980-ish hPa low remaining to our northwest, and also 925 hPa winds from the south peaking around 70 kt on the coastal plain (this is a conditional benchmark for high wind warning in WAA events), we could be dealing with a wind and rain event sometime between Saturday night and Monday depending on how stable the boundary layer is. However, the track and strength of the low could certainly change this far out depending on how the heights over the US and Canada eventually shake out. Will continue to monitor trends for sure as some negative impacts will be possible if something like the 12z deterministic ECMWF is close to reality.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...Areas of MVFR and IFR will dominate through Tuesday morning. While snow has lightened this afternoon, another round of light to moderate snow rates could cause reduced visibility this evening and overnight. This will be focused along the Maine Midcoast, including the terminals north of PWM, primarily up through AUG and RKD. Winds will remain below 15 kt, with a trend N. Tuesday into Tues night will feature a smaller area of IFR, perhaps only through SW NH. However, MVFR should hold on through much of the area.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected Wednesday through Thursday.
A warm front approaches the region on Friday with lowering ceilings possible but still likely VFR.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions continue through tonight as seas remain 5-6 ft. Conditions become more marginal overnight as seas relax, but a few 5 footers and occasional gust to 25 kts are not out of the question on the outer edge of our marine zones through tomorrow.
Winds and seas calm below SCA conditions tomorrow night.

Long Term...Conditions will likely remain below SCA thresholds through the extended period. However, low pressure exiting south and east of the region may allow wind gusts to approach 25 kt Wednesday night. Depending on the track and strength of low pressure over the weekend, gales or even a low prob of storms could occur Sun/Mon.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.

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Brunswick
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Mon -- 02:15 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:28 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:37 PM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brunswick, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Mon -- 01:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:24 AM EST     0.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:23 AM EST     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:01 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     0.66 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:41 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

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