Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Damariscotta, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...Clouds have steadily lifted north capping temps for southern counties particularly where seabreeze has kicked in. With moisture pooling we are seeing hit/miss showers with instability sufficient enough to support a few bolts of lightning. Once daytime heating ends all shower activity will cease. Another weak upper ridge moves over the area, leading to a lull in activity and more stable conditions overnight. As a result, expect stratus and areas of fog to develop after dark, particularly near the coast. Visibilities could drop to 1/2 mile or less at times, so locally dense possible. Fog will be less impactful inland, but will expect some reduction in visibilities. Clouds and humidity levels will keep lows in the 50s overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Stratus/fog will dissipate through morning, though clouds are likely to linger longer near the coast while breaking inland by late morning. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s and a bit muggy. With the area remaining moist and warm in the wake of a warm front passage, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible late afternoon and evening as that weak upper ridge and its associated subsidence depart to the east. The progression of the warm front could serve as a focus for convective initiation, and any storms that do form could produce locally heavy rainfall. Forcing overall looks modest with ridging not far away no notable shear. Thinking it will be just unsettled with scattered to widespread showers, primarily in the afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed. PWATs have increased to around 1.25-1.5" with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, supporting some good rain makers and if movement is slow there could be some spotty accumulations around 1". Showers diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating Friday Night, but still cannot rule out some light showers through the night. Mild pattern continues with low to mid 60s for lows.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Points:

-Rainy weekend ahead, with most consistent rainfall expected from heavy showers Saturday afternoon.

-Showery conditions on Sunday with widespread light rain north of the mountains.

-Showery weather wraps up Monday evening, with a drier Tuesday/Wednesday.

-Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week.

Details:

An upper-level low moves across New England on Saturday. A dying surface low looks to bring a couple rounds of showers across northern New England on Saturday. The first round exits the region Saturday morning, with showers generally pretty spotty in nature as the associated occluded front falls apart.

As the low moves closer, another round of showers associated with a stronger occluded front develop to the west, moving into New Hampshire by the afternoon. These showers are more organized, and may move across NH and ME quickly. Guidance is still a bit uncertain on the timing, with the ECMWF indicating an earlier arrival and the NAM suggesting showers arrive later on in the evening. Areas that see repeat activity could accumulate 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the majority of the region will see amounts around an inch. Flooding is not expected at this time.

Sunday, the center of the low moves across northern NH and ME, allowing for more light rain Sunday with some showers also making down to the rest of NH and Maine. The low may hover over NH and ME for a while, continuing the showers possibly through Monday evening.

Conditions should dry out at least a little by Tuesday as the aforementioned low moves off into the Atlantic. The end of the week may feature unsettled weather as another upper-level low moves in from the southwest.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Hit/miss showers this evening expected to skirt most airports but given their spotty coverage they are not likely to cause impacts at terminals. Coverage will drop off after dark when a stratus/fog deck builds in overnight. IFR to LIFR conditions likely at most terminals, with dense fog at RKD and near 1/2sm conditions at nearby airports.

Long term...Restrictions may be down during showers, a few thunderstorms and rain that will be moving through the area Saturday through Monday. At this time, the best chances to see reduced restrictions look to arrive Saturday evening as a front moves across the NH and ME.

MARINE
Short Term...Latest obs show SE winds 5 kt with seas >2 ft this afternoon. Light winds expected through tonight, supportive of more fog. Similar pattern expected Fri, SE 5 kt early increasing to S at 10 kt. Fog conditions likely to linger under humid conditions into Friday night.

Long Term...Southeasterly flow at 8-14kts expected on Saturday.
A low moves across the area, shifting winds to the southwest at 7-10kts by Sunday. As the low continues to move out to sea, winds shift to northwesterlies at 11-17kts by Monday, with winds staying there through Wednesday morning. Seas of 2-4ft are expected Saturday through Wednesday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for MEZ018>028.
NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.