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FXUS61 KGYX 280824 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 324 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Snow showers and a few squalls will be possible today, mostly in the mountains, along with cooler temperatures through midweek. High pressure prevails later in the work week, with a weak system then possible late Friday into early Saturday. High pressure moves through Saturday night and Sunday, with another system possible early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Colder day today with an approaching short wave trough that will keep variable clouds and snow showers in the forecast. Low level moisture, forcing for ascent, and weak instability will be sufficient for numerous snow showers and potentially some heavy squalls in the the mountains today. A few inches of snow across central and northern NH mountains are likely, likely extending into portions of the western ME mountains.

The flow today is forecast to be supercritical and unblocked (high Froude Numbers) so that some of the snow shower activity will make it over the mountains. Have expanded chance PoPs to almost all of the forecast area for today with some minor accums possible in spots. Otherwise, some sun from time to time downwind of the mountains is expected along with colder temperatures than yesterday along with breezy westerly winds.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
The short wave trough will cross the forecast area this evening which will allow the snow shower activity to diminish, although they may linger in the mountains. Another weak short wave trough will approach on Wednesday with an increase in clouds bur dry weather. Temperatures remain cold.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Overview...

High pressure slides offshore through midweek, bringing a moderating trend through the end of the work week. A weak low pressure system passes to the south Friday night, and then high pressure builds in for the weekend from the north. Another storm system is then possible early next week.

Details...

As the high slides offshore to our south, temperatures start to rebound on Thursday in a southwesterly flow, and then warm further with highs near 50 by Friday. This sets a fairly warm airmass in place for the next system arriving late Friday and Friday night. A weak area of low pressure is expected to slide to the south of the area and bring a chance for rain and snow to the area. The best chance to see the precip will be along the coast, and mostly light rain. There's a better chance for snow farther inland, but lower POPs overall as most of the moisture looks poised to pass the south of the forecast area. Regardless, it doesn't look to be a very impactful system, and should be off to our east by daybreak Saturday.

High pressure builds in from the north on Saturday, bringing a cooling trend through the end of the weekend. Highs look to mainly be held to the 30s on Sunday with mainly sunny skies. The high then slips off into the Canadian Maritimes by early next week as the next storm system approaches.

The next potential system would likely arrive in the Monday to Tuesday time frame. While it's still nearly a week away, it's worth noting that all the of the major global models have a system nearby around this time. Their respective ensemble suites also show many members with a storm in this timeframe, and ensemble mean QPF values of around an inch. It's still very early, but the current consensus amongst the models is notable.
What also makes this worth watching is with the high remaining to the north, cold air will be available for a more widespread snow on the north side of the low track. We'll continue to monitor this system over the coming days.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today through Wednesday downwind of the mountains with westerly wind gusts between 20 to 25 kt at times. However, a few snow showers downwind of the mountains may allow for very brief instances of IFR in SHSN. In the mountains, snow showers will be common today with frequently lower conditions.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night through early Friday. Light rain and some lowering ceilings are then possible late Friday and Friday night, mainly across southern and coastal terminals. VFR conditions return for the weekend, except at HIE where MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday. A large storm system is then possible early next week, and has the potential to bring restrictions with rain and snow.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA in effect for all the waters. For the outer waters, the SCA goes into Wednesday morning while the bays see the SCA conditions diminish earlier.

Long Term...High pressure moves offshore south of the waters by Thursday. A cold front approaches the waters Friday, with freshening southwesterly flow and possible SCA to low end gale conditions by Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in during the weekend, with SCA conditions possible again in northwesterly flow.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152- 154.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

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Salmon Falls River entrance
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Tue -- 12:48 AM EST     7.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:52 PM EST     8.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
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Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

Dover Point
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Tue -- 12:46 AM EST     6.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 12:50 PM EST     7.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:12 PM EST     -0.65 feet Low Tide
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Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

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