Rochester, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, VT

April 14, 2024 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:35 PM
Moonrise 10:05 AM   Moonset 1:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 150213 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1013 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Intermittent rain showers continue through the overnight hours, becoming more scattered on Monday. Dry and pleasant spring weather is on tap on Tuesday and Wednesday before widespread rain returns to end the work week. The weekend looks mainly dry with cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1013 PM EDT Sunday...No significant changes needed to the forecast at this time for the remainder of the overnight hours.
Showers have ended across the region with dry conditions expected to prevail for the rest of the night along with cloudy skies, light winds, and areas of patchy fog. Lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

On Monday, forecast highs should top out close to climatological normals, which are in the low to mid 50s. Expect plenty of clouds to start the day, with intervals of sunshine developing during the morning hours. However, we remain under broad cyclonic flow thanks to a vertically stacked upper low pressure system meandering across northern Quebec. The lobes of weak shortwave energy rounding the trough from Ontario into northern New England mean that clouds will likely fill back in by mid day into the afternoon hours with occasional light rain showers. That being said, the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont has the best chance of seeing more sunshine, and if that is the case, some locations south of Route 4 could see highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Snow levels are expected to rise to 3500-4000 ft as the day progresses, so any minor accumulations will be confined the Adirondack High Peaks and northern Greens, above any mountain pass. Forecast soundings suggest rather deep boundary layer mixing up to 850 and even 800mb for certain sites, so west or northwest winds could gust 25 to 30 mph at times. Heading into Monday night, colder air will be moving in aloft but it looks like it will take longer for the cold air to arrive below 850mb. So expect isolated to scattered showers to linger for the first half of the overnight hours, and once the drier air arrives, temperatures should fall more quickly during the latter half of the overnight hours. Overnight lows for Monday night are forecast to be in the mid 30s to near 40 across the St Lawrence and Champlain valley, but upper 20s to just above freezing in the colder hollows.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday continues to look like a seasonable early spring day with no precipitation. Enough low level moisture will swing southeastward around the backside of the lingering trough to aid in mainly fair weather cumulus, with perhaps a mostly cloud sky at times, more likely as you go north and eastward. Temperatures should rebound into the 50s, with somewhat of a north to south gradient in addition to the typical elevational differences given cooler air aloft in northern areas. A modest pressure gradient with high pressure to our northwest and low pressure to our northeast will help deepen the boundary layer to at least the 800 millibar level. As a result of mixing dry air downward, we continue to lower minimum humidity values. The lack of stronger winds and recent wet conditions should keep fire danger concerns at bay. The relatively light flow will support decoupling after dark, with temperatures in most areas dropping back to near or below freezing by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected during this period, although a period of unsettled conditions is expected mainly midday Thursday through Friday.

A strong ridge will build into Wednesday. Therefore, beautiful sunny spring weather can be expected. Given position of surface high pressure to our north and modest, shallow cold air advection, temperatures will be held to near normal values in the 50s, locally 60s in the lower Connecticut River Valley and southern St. Lawrence Valley, despite abundant sunshine. Winds look rather light, especially outside of the wide valleys, with weak flow aloft.

The weather becomes more interesting late in the week, although the next system looks to be in a weakening phase as it approaches our region. Thursday's high temperatures look more uncertain than typical aside from Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, per NBM max temperature standard deviation, probably owing to differences in precipitation timing. So assuming we see ample sunshine, I would not be surprised if the official forecast trends warmer, which currently suggests most likely highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
With a later arrival of rain, given the warm pre-frontal air mass, it would be reasonable to see temperatures surge well into the 60s in the deeper valleys. Per GEFS mean 850 millibar temperatures, the largest anomalies will be focused up the St. Lawrence Valley, but precipitation is more likely to arrive there during the morning.

In the latest available global ensemble cluster analysis, three of the four scenarios show a stronger ridge/slower progression of the next trough from the west to keep most or all of the region dry through at least 8 AM Thursday. Therefore, only a slight chance of rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning is reasonable.
Thereafter, a slug of light to moderate rain is expected to eventually move through but model agreement is poor on both timing and spatial distribution of relatively heavy precipitation. In general, better chances of higher precipitation amounts will be as you go westward. The PoPs during the Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon period largely match this idea.

For the weekend, signals are strong for a cool and mainly dry period as low level flow becomes westerly/northwesterly behind a cold front dropping in from our northwest. One ensemble cluster with multi- model support suggests near advisory level wind gusts on Saturday, but the general idea of gusty westerly winds looks reasonable. For now we show gusts mainly 20-25 MPH as the most likely scenario, enough for a brisk day but nothing more. Enough cyclonic flow will be in place behind the front to potentially spark showers, but this pattern suggests meager precipitation amounts if anything develops.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will prevail through 12Z with cloudy skies and light winds leading to areas of reduced visibility, likely to MVFR and potentially IFR in spots. After 12Z, MVFR conditions lift to VFR with isolated to widely scattered showers possible through the afternoon.
Winds remain relatively light Monday morning, becoming westerly at 6-12kts in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMPV26 sm44 mincalm10 smOvercast43°F39°F87%29.73
Link to 5 minute data for KMPV


Wind History from MPV
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:29 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:54 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3.4
1
am
2.5
2
am
1.9
3
am
1.3
4
am
0.8
5
am
0.8
6
am
1.8
7
am
3.2
8
am
4.5
9
am
5.3
10
am
5.7
11
am
5.5
12
pm
4.7
1
pm
3.7
2
pm
2.9
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.7
7
pm
1.7
8
pm
2.8
9
pm
3.6
10
pm
4.1
11
pm
4.4



Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:09 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:46 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
3.2
1
am
2.4
2
am
1.8
3
am
1.2
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.9
6
am
2
7
am
3.4
8
am
4.6
9
am
5.3
10
am
5.7
11
am
5.4
12
pm
4.6
1
pm
3.6
2
pm
2.8
3
pm
2
4
pm
1.1
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
0.8
7
pm
1.9
8
pm
2.9
9
pm
3.7
10
pm
4.2
11
pm
4.3




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Burlington, VT,



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