Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 648 PM EDT Saturday...Have cancelled the rest of the severe watch as storms have moved out of our area and the atmosphere is pretty worked over at this point. Adjusted PoP and Wx grids to reflect current radar trends. Previous discussion follows.

The atmospheric setup is ideal for isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms this afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE and ample shear. Storm modes will be mixed discreet supercell and multi- cellular lines. While chances are low, can't rule out a rare tornado. Wetbulb zero heights are near ideal for large hail as well with several reports of 1.75 inch hail already. These storms will track east through the afternoon with one more wave of forced showers/storms possible later this evening. The evening wave may not produce as many strong cells due to the environment being worked over from earlier storms, but can't rule out some stronger elements either. Finally, the last concern will be flash flooding. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will increase susceptibility to flooding in heavier storms. Locations like Cambridge, VT have seen ample rainfall and are experiencing minor flooding; any further rain from a strong thunderstorm will likely lead to localized flash flooding.

Temperatures cool sharply tonight into Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s. With the cold core of the low overhead, more showers are anticipated, but no severe thunderstorms since temperatures cool off dramatically. Upper low drags northeastward Sunday night pulling rain with it. Low's in the mid 30s to low 40s are anticipated.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 316 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure will hover over Nova Scotia to start the workweek, drawing in cooler air from the north and northwest on Monday. Lingering moisture will help trigger additional showers, mainly across the far northern Adirondacks, northern Greens, and the Northeast Kingdom. Northwesterly winds will be breezy with gusts up to 15-25 knots, higher on the mountaintops with a weak low level jet overhead. NW winds, showers, and increased cloud cover will result in highs struggling to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s in the afternoon. As we head into the overnight hours Monday night, showers should taper off as drier air noses in from the west, though if showers linger long enough to coincide with colder temperatures (lows falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s), we could see some snow mixing in at the highest elevations. No accumulation is expected. Winds will continue out of the northwest with perhaps occasional gusts but overall decrease at night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 316 PM EDT Saturday...The pattern is forecast to stay active and wet into next weekend, though models continue to depict a range of varying scenarios and storm tracks. Precip is possible each day. Due to the above normal precipitation chances this week, we'll also see highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 40s, keeping conditions chilly.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z MONDAY...Thunderstorms are tracking east of the forecast area this evening, leaving behind lighter showers and a bit of a lull tonight. Most sites are now VFR, however, many of them still hold onto a cloud layer at about 300-500 feet above ground level that bounces between scattered and broken, causing intermittent IFR/LIFR. Ceilings will lower to MVFR or IFR levels tomorrow as showers increase again Sunday. Winds out of the southwest will turn more northwesterly tomorrow as well. There could be some brief periods of LLWS tonight, then surface gusts increase later tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.

HYDROLOGY
Several rounds of heavy rainfall have occurred and will continue to occur through this evening as several troughs strongly force convection. Given storm mode of mix supercell/multicell line, heavy rainfall from individual cells, training cells, and multiple rounds of thunderstorms will result in isolated flash flooding. Highest chances of this will be from the Adirondacks to locations just east of the Green Mountains. Conditions improve overnight with troughs passing eastward.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.