Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, VT

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:16PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 2:12 PM EST (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 7:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, VT
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location: 43.93, -72.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 111821 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions linger through this morning, then expect snow showers to increase across northern NY and northern VT this afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses the region. Some of this activity may be briefly heavy late in the day, especially in the St Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks, where a couple inches of snow will be possible. Drier but colder weather arrives on Thursday. The next chance for widespread precipitation will occur Saturday, with moderate rain generally expected across the North Country.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 120 PM EST Wednesday . No significant changes made with this update. The main concern for the day is the ongoing lake effect snows across our western NY zones. The focus then shifts to the potential for brief, moderate/heavy snow showers along a cold front between 21-03z. Lake effect snow has begun to overspread the St Lawrence River Valley with webcams in the area (Hammond) showing whiteout conditions and visibilities 1/4 mi or less with snow beginning to accumulate. Additionally, parameters are still favorable for a band of convectively driven snow to move across our northern zones this evening along a frontal boundary.

Previous discussion . A fairly quiet start to the day today with the cold front positioned offshore and well to our south. Much drier air has spread across the North Country behind the front, shunting the steadier precipitation into southern and eastern New England. Conditions will change this afternoon, however, as low pressure currently over Lake Superior will scoot eastward, moving north of our region later today and tonight. Winds will turn to the southwest as the low approaches this afternoon, allowing enhanced moisture to stream off of Lake Ontario and into northern NY. Meanwhile, the low's attendant cold front will push eastward, entering the St Lawrence Valley mid-late afternoon, and into the Adirondacks early this evening. This front will serve to focus the lake-enhanced moisture. Low-level lapse rates will steepen under cold air advection; note that model guidance continues to show SBCAPE values possibly exceeding 100 J/kg. Hence expect there will be a sharp line of briefly heavy snow that will move through the St Lawrence Valley into the northern Adirondacks late this afternoon into early evening. Hi-res CAMs agree with this scenario, with the band breaking up as it moves eastward through the Adirondacks and into northern VT. One possible snag is the lack of substantial moisture for those areas well away from Lake Ontario. Still, would expect a quick inch or two of accumulation with this band along and west of the western slopes of the Adirondacks, with lesser amounts to the south and east. The aforementioned steepening lapse rates will also serve to allow ample mixing of winds aloft down to the surface. The latest NAM sounding for MSS indicates mixing to 10 kft post-front, and with 30-40 kt at the top of the mixed layer, so expect winds will be gusty with and after the front. The reinforcing shot of cold and dry air behind the front will bring snow to an end by midnight or shortly thereafter, lingering longest in the northern Green Mountains. Temperatures will be cold under clearing skies, though winds will remain gusty much of the night due to the aforementioned cold air advection/mixing. Lows will range from the single digits in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to the mid teens in the wider valleys.

Thursday will be chilly but dry as high pressure slowly builds over the Northeast CONUS. We'll start out with plenty of sunshine, but high clouds will spread from west to east during the afternoon ahead of weak low pressure pushing into the Great Lakes. Winds will turn to the south/southwest late in the day as the ridge axis moves east, but temperatures will remain well below normal for mid December. Highs will range the upper teens in the Northeast Kingdom to the mid and upper 20s in the more southern valley locations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 331 AM EST Wednesday . Thursday night into the pre-dawn hours, quiet conditions are expected, though increasingly gusty will add some disrupt the quiet. As high pressure shifts offshore, strong pressure gradients will result in increasing southerly flow that will channel through the Champlain Valley, in particular. A weak upper shortwave will pass to our north with the main impacts being cloud cover. With that and the increasing winds, overnight lows are expected to remain in the teens to mid 20s.

Clouds should briefly clear as moisture continues to lift north and east. We should also see gusty winds peak late morning/early afternoon once warm air advection aloft reduces our mixing potential. We should see highs creep above freezing across much of the region, except at some of our colder hollows.

Towards the evening hours, some drizzle or flurries could begin to work its way northward into south-central Vermont into the Adirondacks as warm, moist advection continues to increase. Forecast soundings are fairly complex with little cloud ice suggesting more drizzle/flurry at onset. Deep layer moisture will continue to increase. As the previous forecaster noted, some of our cold hollows could hover around the freezing mark and remain near that point from wet-bulbing. There is a very quick window where a brief snow and freezing rain mix takes place as the warm nose strengthens and while the wet-bulb effect maintains the colder air across those colder hollows.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 331 AM EST Wednesday . Any mixed precip types should transition to rain during the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. The higher summits will be the exception and will be the last to transition to rain. Forecast guidance remains consistent in strong warming with surface temperatures warming into the 40s.

Negatively tilted trough will move in during the day on Saturday with a coastal low likely tracking into interior New England. Not much has changed in the overall details with near record PWATs still forecast along with the potential for downslope winds on the western slopes from a 40-45kt east-southeasterly low-level jet to the north of the low. With the mostly stable air, not anticipating too much gustiness, but portions of the southern Greens seems the most likely to see gusty winds channeling through any gaps in the mountain range. As for precipitation amounts, early indications are still for about a 0.50"-1.00" with a locally up to 1.5", particularly east of the Greens.

Active weather continues into Sunday as the mid-level low tracks across the region. Plenty of synoptic scale forcing for ascent remains as the cold front moves across during the morning hours. Unfortunately, colder air will be slow to move in as the mid-level low tracks north of us, keeping more west-southwesterly flow in place. By the time cold air does arrive, the backside of the trough begins to lift out of the region with moisture quickly thinning Sunday night into Monday. Mainly mountain snow showers will be possible Sunday evening/Monday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions Monday into early Tuesday. The next system will already be at our doorstep on Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 18Z Thursday . Lake effect snow will continue across the St Lawrence Valley through early evening with MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities, with locally lower LIFR visbilities (down to 1/4 mi) in the heaviest snows. A cold front will move across the region from west to east this evening and along with it provide focus for a band of moderate to briefly heavy snow. This front is expected to impact KMSS and KSLK between 22-23z, KPBG and KBTV 23-00z and KMPV around 00-01z. Visibilities may briefly drop down to IFR. After 02z, all sites will become VFR expect KSLK which could see some MVFR snow showers linger through 04z. Southwesterly winds between 10-15 knots will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon/evening, with gusts around20 knots possible. After the front moves through winds will turn out of the west with gusts up to 25-30 knots at times.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Chance FZRA, Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA. Saturday Night: IFR. Likely RA, Likely SN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance FZRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hastings NEAR TERM . Hastings/LaRocca SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . LaRocca


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT26 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair27°F12°F53%1021.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMPV

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW9NW10W66W10
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1 day agoCalmCalmS13S10S9S5S9S5S8S6S7SW7SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 04:15 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:48 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:34 PM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:32 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.933.74.13.93.12.11.30.70.1-0.10.62.23.74.75.35.34.63.52.41.60.7-0

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 04:07 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:38 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:22 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.82.13.13.84.13.82.91.91.20.60-0.10.82.43.94.85.35.34.53.32.31.50.6-0.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.