Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Schroon Lake, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1215 PM EDT Monday...Temperatures are quickly rising as expected and high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 still look reasonable. Temperatures were slightly ahead of the diurnal curve so raised them slightly this afternoon. A few high clouds will pass overhead but the day will still be mostly sunny. The forecast was in good shape so few edits were necessary.

Previous Forecast....Sfc anticyclone centered over swrn NY/nwrn PA will be our controlling wx feature thru tonight. Clear skies and saturated soil conditions is leading to some patchy pre- dawn fog, which should largely dissipate by 12Z. The balance of the day will feature sunshine with just passing midday/aftn cirrus clouds per cloud area evident in GOES-19 IR imagery over nrn Ontario at 0745Z.

With the departure of yesterday's vertically stacked system, temperatures will rebound significantly with aftn highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s (generally 10-20deg warmer than Sunday's highs). Lowered midday thru afternoon 2-m dewpoints from the NBM mean values given good potential mixing up past 850mb and typical spring bias. Should see daytime minimum RH values in the 20-25 percent range, though no fire weather concerns expected given the weekend's wetting rains and higher elevation snowfall, as well as generally light wind conditions.

Tonight: Good radiational cooling early, but as sfc ridge exits into the Gulf of Maine, developing S-SW winds 5-10 mph after midnight will put the brakes on the temperatures from the Champlain Valley wwd. Overnight lows near 40 in eastern VT, but generally in the mid-upper 40s as temperatures level out during the pre-dawn hours. PoPs NIL.

Tuesday: SPC SWODY2 slight risk for severe thunderstorms in place for western VT and northern NY. Large-scale forcing and wind fields are quite favorable with compact 500mb vort and attendant cold front crossing sern Ontario and wrn NY 00-03Z Wednesday and developing cyclonic mid-level flow and height falls overspreading central/nrn NY during the mid-late afternoon hours. Mid-level trough is embedded in strong westerly flow, and this contributes to sfc-6km bulk shear generally 40-50kt across our entire area Tuesday evening.

Instability is somewhat less favorable with HRRR mean SBCAPE of around 500 J/kg. NAM and NAM-nest show higher SBCAPE values (near or exceeding 1000 J/kg) but generally think associated mid-60s PBL dewpoints are too high in those solutions. Dewpoints in the 55-58F range appear most likely and will limit overall instability. With that said, other factors are favorable to support a few strong to severe storms, particularly across nrn NY and wrn VT. With late arrival of best forcing and cold front, appears severe threat fades by 10pm as instability wanes and doesn't shift ewd into VT. Overall showing 50-80% PoPs late Tuesday afternoon through evening for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with strongest cores/possible bow segments, and included a short discussion in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook.

850mb temps near +12C to +13C will support highs 75-80F on Tuesday, with gusty S-SW winds thru the day as p-gradient increases.

As sfc cold front sweeps rapidly across the North Country from 01-06Z Wednesday, should see a 1-2 hr period of strong post- frontal westerly wind gusts even away from thunderstorms (owing to isallobaric effects). Currently looking for 30-40 mph gusts, but will need to monitor for possible downslope enhancement of wind gusts on the ern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mtns especially.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 327 AM EDT Monday...Following a cold front Tuesday night, mid- week looks calm and dry with brief ridging. Temperatures will favor the cooler side of things with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s from north to south. Winds look to continue to be breezy through much of the day on Wednesday, especially in the eastern downslope regions of the Adirondacks and Greens, abating by Wednesday evening as brief high pressure builds in. Lows Wednesday night will be rather chilly with values near freezing in the higher terrain and in the mid to upper 30s in the valleys.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 327 AM EDT Monday...The long term forecast remains unsettled for late week into the weekend. Temperatures generally favor slightly above average values with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure early Thursday will give way to a developing long wave out of the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances increase Thursday afternoon and look to continue into the weekend. The system tracks across the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday night as it occludes with a triple point low possibly developing over the area. As the system deepens, and the pressure gradient tightens Thursday night, southerly flow could lead to gusty winds across the Champlain Valley. The system lifts to the northeast Friday placing the area firmly in the warm sector with dew points rising into the mid to upper 50s. Humid air and added instability along a surface cold front Friday afternoon could lead to some thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont. The system appears to be fairly transient with rounds of precipitation rather than persistent stratiform. NBM probabilities of half an inch or greater of precipitation from Thursday night through Saturday are only about 40%, but would be higher under any thunderstorms or downpours that develop. Behind the front, some lingering showers in the upslope favored areas could persist into weekend ahead of an upper level front with temperatures during the overnights falling to near freezing, leading to some snow chances near the summits.

AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday... VFR conditions should mostly prevail for the next 24 hours. Some showers with embedded thunderstorms will enter northern New York tomorrow afternooon and they could briefly reduce visibilities at times. Winds will generally be light today and go calm or terrain driven this evening. Winds will become southwesterly later tonight and increase during the day tomorrow. Gusts in the 15- 25 KT range are possible at all the terminals by tomorrow afternoon.
LLWS should develop in most places late tonight and early tomorrow morning, before it weakens during the day as surface winds increase.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.