Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Port, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 433 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Expansive amplified longwave troughing will continue to churn over the eastern half of the country today as associated broad low pressure works up the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, ridging will fold over central Canada and the northern Great Plains today, building surface high pressure across the central U.S. and sandwiching the Great Lakes between these features through today before aforementioned high pressure noses in later tonight.

Forecast Details:

While light lake effect showers persist across parts of northern Michigan, the primary concern will be the placement of the ongoing dominant single lake effect band spanning the long axis of Lake Michigan through the day today.

As land breeze influence lessens during daylight hours and background synoptic flow increases, expectation is that this dominant band will shift eastward with time this morning and afternoon. This will bring the band and associated heavy lake effect very close to our western Lake Michigan shoreline -- specifically Manistee county. Two things to note on set-ups like this: 1.) even slight land breeze influence/offshore flow can work to keep the band just offshore with straight north background flow, which may be the case through much of the day, and 2.) the slightest fluctuation of west component of wind can help focus heaviest banding just onshore, leading to highly localized significant snowfall for hours over just a few mile stretch of land.

Current confidence is that heaviest lake effect snow will focus just offshore for most of the day. Relatively lighter snow is still expected with ongoing bands through the morning/afternoon. As the afternoon progresses and the dominant band moves east, it appears there will be a race against time of sorts for higher snowfall totals to materialize. Changing wind direction will likely lead to waffling of banding, working to spread snowfall totals out across the county vs. focusing them over one spot along the shoreline for several hours. Along with this, the initially very favorable environment with deep saturation extending to near 10kft will become increasingly hostile with time as dry air moves in, causing banding to run out of steam later this evening and tonight. That said, totals of 2-4" are currently forecast for much of Manistee county with the potential for 4-6"+ in far southwest portions of the county in association with the aforementioned strong band. Should the band focus over the county earlier in the day, totals in excess of 6" could be expected.

The other main area of focus will be near and south of Grand Traverse Bay where more organized bands are expected to develop with north flow later today into tonight. As mentioned above, changing wind direction will shift focus of any ongoing bands, likely helping to spread snowfall totals out some. A general 2-4" is expected for most areas, but localized amounts of 4" or more cannot be ruled out should bands focus over specific areas for several hours later today. Lesser amounts are anticipated elsewhere as lake effect showers diminish with time tonight into Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 433 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Days 2-3 (Tuesday-Wednesday):

Amplified longwave troughing will rotate over the northeast CONUS as ridging temporarily slides over the Great Lakes on Tuesday. The combination of dry low-level air working in and shifting winds from aforementioned ridging will bring a brief break in precip chances Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. By then, a subtle shortwave/jet max embedded in large scale northwest flow will punch over the region, providing ample forcing aloft to support our next round of rain snow chances beginning in the Tuesday afternoon/evening timeframe. Lack of more substantial forcing is expected to keep precip light -- with most areas seeing a tenth of liquid precip or less. Marginal temps will likely lead to a rain/snow mix with any activity Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain is expected near the lakeshores of northwest lower given southwest winds advecting warmer air/above freezing temps inland and better chances for snow to mix in across interior areas -- especially the higher terrain of northern lower. West-northwest winds look to settle in on Wednesday with temps reaching into upper 30s to mid 40s -- setting the stage for continued lake effect rain showers through the middle of the week.

Days 4-7 (Thursday-Sunday):

Low-amplitude troughing will progress over the region Thursday, perhaps providing enough support to keep lake effect showers going into Thursday morning. That said, Thursday-Saturday appear to stay mainly dry at this time as ridging and associated surface high pressure slide over the Great Lakes. Temperatures look to gradually warm through the long term with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s by Sunday as our next chances for precip move back in.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 122 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings will trend VFR as winds slacken to AOB 10kts. Another round of lake effect snow is possible today, especially across Lake MI terminals. -SHSN looks to begin as early as 12Z over KMBL, with SN reaching KTVC by 18Z as winds turn NW and strengthen. Winds gain more of a W component and weaken by the end of the period, helping to possibly shut off lake effect snow. Conditions across aforementioned lake effect prone areas will trend MVFR to possibly IFR conditions in the heaviest bands with other terminals trending more low end VFR.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ347.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ344>346.