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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Through early evening..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots backing northwest toward daybreak. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing north 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..South winds around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 032328 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 628 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

- Diminishing Rain and Snow This Afternoon/Evening

The area of low pressure over Southern Lower MI will pull off to the east tonight. This system will take the deeper moisture with it. By 00z the DGZ is shown to become unsaturated here in Grand Rapids so we will feature only chance POPs by then. This is supported by the 12z ensemble qpf forecasts which indicate very little potential for measurable qpf after 00z. With temperatures remaining above freezing to start the evening, the potential for impacts is low. We do fall below freezing overnight so there could be a few icy spots on untreated surfaces then.

- Potential for light snow moving in later Monday night

Ridging will be place to start Monday night, but height falls occur as this feature shifts east of the area and the next shortwave approaches from the west. As this next wave nears the area, the moisture deepens up prior to daybreak. Forecast soundings support mainly snow and surface temperatures will be below freezing. Thus we will need to monitor the potential for impacts then.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

West Michigan has multiple chances for precipitation in the coming days with temperatures warming to above normal by the end of the work week.

- Light Snow Tuesday/Tuesday Night

A shortwave and surface low tracking south of Michigan will bring precipitation mainly near and south of I96 Tuesday. With the freezing level under 1000 ft across southern Michigan, snow is the dominant precipitation type, though some rain could mix in near the lakeshore. Accumulations will be light since the northern origin of the system limits moisture, keeping QPF under 0.1 inches.

Light snow/mixed precipitation could linger Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This is due to Cyclonic flow under continued troughing paired with cold air advection (850 mb temps fall to near -7C)
leading to lake effect precipitation.

-Warmup late week

Longwave ridging moves into the region starting Wednesday as the upper-level troughing departs to the east. Warm air advection brings the potential for light rain/snow Wednesday night before dry conditions under surface and upper-level ridging Thursday. Warm air advection then sends temperatures climbing for the end of the week with highs at least in the 40s Thursday through Saturday. Highs could even reach the 50s Sunday, especially across the southern CWA.

This is dependent on the strength of the ridge which is still in question between different guidance. According to WPC cluster analysis, the ECMWF/EPS solution and many of the CMC members favor stronger ridging and warmer temperatures Friday while the GFS/GEFS and a subset of the CMC keep ridging weaker and cooler temperatures.

-Rain chances increase Friday into the Weekend

Longwave troughing then amplifies over the plains late this week causing rain chances to increase. There is question of when this occurs with the same subset that favored weaker ridging (GFS/GEFS/some CMC) bringing in earlier troughing and rainfall with the EPS/ECMWF and the rest of the CMC keeping ridging longer and rainfall later. NBM PoPs capture this well with PoPs under 30 percent through the day Friday increasing to 50-60 percent Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A combination of MVFR to LIFR ceilings is present across the area with mainly MVFR to VFR visibilities. These conditions will continue overnight with some scattered rain showers currently stretching along and south of a MKG to LAN line. Within these showers visibilities could briefly drop MVFR values. Heading into Monday winds turn more to the northwest with ceilings gradually rising throughout the day, but most will remain MVFR before 00Z Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

The winds may gust over 20 knots near and south of South Haven this afternoon but they will gradually weaken tonight. Waves are projected to build up to 2 to 4 feet there so no headlines at this time. Aside from that, the pressure gradient remains relatively weak so the potential for hazardous conditions is low through Tuesday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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