Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed City, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Rain and Thunderstorms into Thursday, Flooding Concerns Continue

Instability is slowly building this afternoon, with thunderstorms intensifying to our south in the more favorable environment. The currently warned storm in Indiana is expected to remain south of the area and with the ongoing stratiform rain, our afternoon chances for severe weather are low.

A lull is expected during the late afternoon and early evening before the low level jet picks back up bringing another round of scattered rain and thunderstorms. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots and MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg should be enough for some stronger to severe storms. Overall the primary concern tonight will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall with lower chances for hail and winds. Risk for severe storms looks to taper off by 2am with lingering showers into Thursday morning.

Instability will drop off overnight into Thursday morning limiting the lightning potential. As the upper level low approaches Thursday afternoon instability is expected to build. HRRR mean surface based instability values around 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear values around 30 knots. Some stronger storms may develop with the best chances along and south of I-69, damaging winds and hail are possible.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely through Thursday with isolated spots up to 3 inches possible. Flooding concerns will continue with rivers expected to worsen. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information.

- Dry Friday, Rain and Thunderstorms Friday Night into Saturday

Dry conditions return for Friday with highs in the 70s under a brief period of high pressure. Southwest flow ahead of a deep trough with a strong low level jet will feed warm, moist air into the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday night and continue into Saturday. Depending on the timing of the cold front there could be a concern for strong to severe storms. The Day 4 outlook has shifted the 15 percent area further east likely due to the current trend for the front to move through during the early afternoon.

- Colder and Windy Sunday

Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the upper 20s to 30s. Breezy west to northwest winds will cause wind chills to be in the 20s Sunday morning. Temperatures may peak in the upper 30s to 40s, however wind chills are expected to remain in the upper 20s to 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Current radar loop shows an area of rain moving east-northeast across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan with lightning presently confined to south of Michigan. This activity may brush our southeast terminals early this afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are developing over Iowa and will affect the terminals early tonight. Another factor is marine dense fog over Lake Michigan, which is already producing IFR/LIFR conditions at MKG with the onset of onshore flow. We expect a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR restrictions well into tonight with the thunder threat continuing towards and after 06Z. For the sake of brevity, have not provided much detail after that, but it's looking likely that IFR ceiling restrictions will be common into and possibly beyond 12Z Thursday.

MARINE
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Dense fog continues to impact the nearshore waters, a Marine Dense Fog advisory is in effect through tonight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue overnight before transitioning to mainly showers. Winds will shift to the northwest Thursday but remain below Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Friday dry conditions are expected with southerly winds building throughout the day into Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop and continue through the weekend. Thunderstorms will also be possible Friday night into Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years continues to develop along the Muskegon River. Meanwhile, heavy rains last night are also likely now going to create another round of primarily minor flooding along the Grand River and associated tributaries.

Another 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell last night across a large portion of the area, with the exception of the headwaters areas of the Grand, Muskegon, and Kalamazoo watersheds (where closer to 1 inch of rain fell). Unfortunately, another 0.5 inches is expected tonight and tomorrow across a large area, with localized streaks of 1 to 3 inches.

Along with the river flooding, urban and low lying areas will be prone to flooding due to any additional thunderstorms rains in the next day or so.

Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor- drainage area flooding will definitely be possible into Thursday as additional rounds of thunderstorms move through.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ845>849.