Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed City, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

- Mostly sunny/warm Monday

High pressure south of James Bay is producing clear skies across the Great Lakes. ENE winds have also provided dry dewpoints in the 30s to go along with temperatures in the mid 60s/lower 70s. The clear skies will continue into Monday and temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s as the high drifts east and south flow increases.

- Several chances for showers/storms this week

An upper low over the deep South will drift north this week and bring increasing moisture/humidity with it. We'll continue with warm temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but the added moisture will also increase chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The first chance for precipitation will come Monday evening as a weak short wave rotates northward from the upper low over the lower TN Valley. The highest chance of precipitation early week will be Tuesday afternoon. A couple hundredths at best is possible with this wave Monday night and Tuesday.

Certainly, clouds will increase from Monday night into Tuesday as the upper low drifts north and that will set us up for a few cloudy days.

A decent upper trough over the Rockies will kick the TN Valley low eastward. The Rockies upper low will induce a surface low over the northern Plains by Wednesday. Frontogenesis over the MO Valley will push a warm front north toward MI late Wednesday. MUCAPE values increase to around 1k j/kg Wednesday afternoon leading to showers/storms.

Perhaps, the most volatile day will be Thursday/Thursday night.
Continued heat (highs mid 80s) and moisture (dewpoints mid 60s)
will collide with the eastward moving cold front. SBCAPE values around 2500 j/kg are progged late Thursday afternoon. Bulk shear values in the mid 30s aren't overly impressive, but enough to help organize some storms, given the lift from the occluded front and approaching short wave. SPC continues to outlook the cwa for a severe weather potential Thursday afternoon/night.

Chances for showers will continue Friday as the upper low moves over the state. However, the higher instability will be east of the cwa by then as some drier air will move over the cwa behind the occluded front.

Rain chances will diminish next weekend as the upper low moves past the state and high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 708 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Clear skies are expected tonight. Increasing cloudiness is expected Monday as low pressure moves north from the Gulf.
Ceilings will gradually lower and may become MVFR at AZO, but remain VFR elsewhere. There is a low chance of a light rain shower after 21z near AZO/BTL but was not included in the TAF.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

While wind and waves won't pose a hazard to boaters during the next few days, increasing chances for thunderstorms will.
Thunderstorms are possible over the lake Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon/evening. The highest chance of storms will be Thursday afternoon and evening.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.