Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed City, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 955 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Red Flag Warning for wildfire danger has been collaborated for the northern Pine forests near and north of Muskegon, Newaygo, Big Rapids, and Clare, as relative humidity drops while south winds increase later this morning through the afternoon. Farther south, similar weather concerns with mixed susceptibility of vegetation for fire spread, as some green-up has occurred, but there are some locations that have been quite dry lately. Bottom line, it's not a good day for outdoor burning in Lower Michigan, as any fires may spread out of control.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

- Elevated fire danger Today

Bottom Line Up Front: Highs in the mid to upper 70s, low RH values and wind gusts upwards of 25 mph will bring an elevated fire danger to Lower Michigan Today.

High pressure will build over the region today with clear skies and warm air advection. The clear skies along with that warm air advection will bring temps into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. As far as Dew points, there is some question with some models dropping DP's into the 30s. The overall CAM consensus is that Dewpoints will be in the 40s along and west of US 131 with Dew points in the upper 30s east of US 131. Looking at soundings, there is some dry air aloft, approx 3-4kft, currently, the region should mix to about 1.5-2KFT. That would drop dew points lower potentially dropping RH's into the mid to low 20s. As it stands have RH's in the upper 20s to low 30s. As stated above, winds will mix down to the SFC cut gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph will be possible this afternoon. Given these conditions, an elevated fire danger is a concern, particularly vulnerable will be the Manistee National Forest area. Will hold off on any headlines for now but will continue to coordinate with Land Management Agencies.

- Storms Possible Tonight into Tomorrow

Latest 00Z CAMS continue to downplay convection tonight into tomorrow. The best CAPE will be north and south of southern lower Michigan, bifurcating the region. The ARW seems to have the best handle on latest convection through the west. There continues to be a strong low level jet moving over the region tonight. If convection is able to fire, this jet and shear will be able to sustain storms overnight. However, low levels are very dry, and given the system will moving in late, the convection will be elevated with a stable later near the SFC. Given those conditions storms will have difficulty forming. Best chance for storms will be through the NW region, primarily north of Muskegon. Best time of convection will be late tonight, early Tuesday morning as the front moves through. Given the change, have lowered POPS through much of the region to focus on NW. There remains some timing concerns as the front moves east so have kept higher POPS near Jackson to account for afternoon convection if the cold front lingers.

- Showers and storms Possible through the latter half of the week

While the upper level forcing for Wednesday evening through Friday's system isn't hugely robust, there remains good moisture advection along with strong warm air advection. Mid range models remain fairly consistent so a warm and wet pattern looks to be in store. The precip on Thursday will be focused due to a shortwave and its sfc reflection as it tracks northeast along the frontal boundary south of MI. Some stronger storms late Thursday are possible if the low shifts northward. As the sfc low moves to the east, the region should receive more precipitation on the backside of the low, especially from a secondary front from the passage of an upper level trough on Friday. Cooler air will then filter in next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

VFR to persist until late in the evening/overnight hours. Only immediate concern is scattered showers and a 20 percent chance of a thunderstorm around Ludington (LDM) through 20 Z. Thunderstorm threat for all areas late tonight into Tuesday morning remains, but the coverage of storm cells and likelihood of receiving a storm at any particular aerodrome remains unclear. However there remains a 4 to 8 hour window of time with PROB30 for the chance of a thunderstorm developing. Any storm tonight could have hail surface and aloft, sudden changes in low-level wind shear and/or stronger gusts.

MARINE
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Increasing southerly flow Monday on the back side of a departing sfc high leads to hazardous winds and waves developing; initially north of Grand Haven Monday morning then over the rest of the nearshore by Monday evening. Latest guidance shows some brief periods of gales late Monday, early Tuesday. However, they are low end and short lived. Will keep an eye out but an upgrade may be needed.

Hazardous winds and waves will continue into Monday night and Tuesday with a cold frontal passage bringing the threat for a few strong to severe storms and a wind shift.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037>040- 043>045-050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>846.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ847>849.