Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Berlin, WI

UPDATE
Issued 710 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Quiet weather and sunny weather prevails through this morning, which unfortunately bodes poorly for severe weather potential later today. Expecting an abundance of sunshine to allow a warm front to return back into the area by mid-day, which will be further ushered northward by a broad area of low pressure over northeast Iowa/southeastern Minnesota. Northward return of the front, in addition to an abundance of sunshine, will allow for ample instability to build back into the area by late afternoon.
Guidance suggests that rapid convective initiation will occur by mid-late afternoon as falling surface pressures begin to encroach upon an uncapping boundary layer. Extent of initiation appears to be at least scattered in coverage, with more numerous development possible if the lake breeze also gets active. Shear profiles will be supportive for initially discrete/supercellular development as storms form, with very unstable conditions aloft being supportive for large to very large hail exceeding the size of golf balls. Straight line wind threat & some tornado potential will also accompany the discrete storm development, although modest low level flow through mid-late afternoon (~2-6 PM) & shorter hodographs pose some uncertainty as to how widespread any tornado potential will be through the beginning phases of the event. How long a discrete mode will be able to maintain will depend upon the extent of convective development, with more widespread initiation making cell mergers & upscale growth increasingly favored by early evening. In the event initiation stays more scattered & storms remain well-separated from one another, discrete modes will remain favored into early evening.

A potentially concerning phase of the event then begins near/after 6 PM, and will continue into at least the middle portions of the evening hours (~9-10 PM). A southwesterly low level jet will be steadily increasing to & through 40 kts during this time period, which will act to enhance previously modest low level hodograph curvature in advance of thunderstorms. This will create an increasingly favorable environment for low level rotation & potential tornadoes in storms. Have concerns for this potential even if storms have upscaled into one or more clusters, as low level thermodynamics and wind shear will be plenty conducive for QLCS-type tornadoes. Additional wind and hail potential will accompany the tornado threat. Storms then look to push out over Lake Michigan between 11 PM and 2 AM.

Above set-up aside, the last trend to monitor will be the evolution of the returning warm sector as it comes back toward the area from Iowa & western Illinois this afternoon. Majority of available guidance suggests that unstable air will make it into the area uncontaminated, putting the entirety of the region in line for storm development by late afternoon. If, however, storms fire earlier in the day in the returning warm/moist air mass over eastern Iowa & northwest Illinois, the northern extent of severe potential could be curbed in our area. This scenario is currently a strong minority in available guidance, and is thus being treated as outlier for the time-being, but is one to be aware of nonetheless.

Will be monitoring trends regarding all of the above very closely through today. Given the potential for widespread severe weather, have multiple ways of receiving warning information, including methods that will be available in the event of power outages. Move to shelter immediately if a warning is issued for your area.

Quigley

SHORT TERM
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Tonight through Tuesday night:

A line of thunderstorms will roll through the forecast area over the next few hours, as low pressure approaches along a stalled frontal boundary. The main threat through 2-4 am will be damaging winds, though an isolated tornado will be possible.
Given sustained instability overnight along with WSW 0-3 km shear around 40 knots, any storm line segments that become more north/south oriented could bow out increasing the wind threat and also producing a QLCS tornado threat. The flooding concern remains overnight as well, as the line of storms across the northern forecast area slowly sags southward tonight, with some back building currently evident over southeast MN and northeast IA.

Storms may linger in the southeast forecast area towards around daybreak, with dry weather then likely through the morning hours. Attention then turns to another severe storm threat during the afternoon and evening hours. The stalled frontal boundary will be set up around the far northern forecast area in the afternoon, as another weak surface low and shortwave approach from the west. Plenty of instability is expected across at least the south half of the forecast area, with surface based CAPE of at least 3000 J/KG. Additionally, wind profiles look more than sufficient for severe storms as a 45 kt LLJ noses from the south by late afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible as storms initialize between 3 and 6 pm, with a decent chance for supercell development. Storms will likely eventually organize into line or two, with the severe threat leaning more towards wind and QLCS tornado at that point.
Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern as well, especially if storms roll through the same areas that received the heavier rainfall the last couple days. Adding to this concern as that some of the latest models do show that a line of storms may set up west to east across the southern half of the forecast area tomorrow night, with some training possible.

DDV

LONG TERM
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Wednesday through Sunday:

It is still looking like the frontal boundary could remain far enough north on Wednesday for another severe storm threat. This will somewhat depend on what happens Tuesday/Tuesday night and where the effective front ends up because of that round of storms. Overall though, there is enough confidence to continue to message a severe threat, with locally heavy rainfall also a concern again.

Storms may linger Wednesday night into early Thursday, with a break in activity then likely Thu afternoon into at least Friday morning. Yet another round of storms is then possible Friday evening into Saturday morning as a cold front finally pushes through the region. The later timing of this front may somewhat diminish the severe threat, due to the better interaction with peak daytime heating Friday remaining to the west. Plenty of time though for timing to change, so this period remains worth keeping an eye on.

Much cooler conditions are expected to settle into the area this weekend behind the departing low and cold front. Highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s by Sunday. It looks mainly dry Sat afternoon through Sunday, though not out of the question for a few snowflakes in the north Sat night as a shortwave rolls through.

DDV

AVIATION
Issued 710 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR flight categories continue through this morning, with strong to severe storm development this afternoon. Reduced CIGs and VIS readings will accompany the storms.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across lake Michigan late into tonight as low pressure of 29.6 inches over southeast Minnesota continues to head northeast. Winds will be easterly north of a frontal boundary across roughly the northern half of the lake, with southerly winds expected in the south.
Then expecting another a couple passing low pressure system to develop in the Plains and track across Lake Michigan again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Each system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Areas of dense fog will likely occur at times due to a relatively mild and humid airmass over the cold waters paired with lighter winds.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Flood Watch
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060 until 7 AM Tuesday.

LM
Dense Fog Advisory
LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876 until 7 AM Wednesday.