Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Berlin, WI

UPDATE
Issued 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

After looking through the bulk of 12Z guidance this morning, it appears that the winter storm is on track for today and tonight.
No significant changes to the the expected liquid equivalent totals, snow to liquid rations, and resultant snow totals.
Models are initializing the surface low position over eastern Kansas well this morning, with the low expected to be centered right around Chicago by midnight tonight. This keeps southern Wisconsin in a good spot for persistent snowfall accumulations through tonight.

The most impactful snowfall with this storm is still expected to be this afternoon and evening. The best round warm air advection and frontogenesis will lift through southern Wisconsin during this period, with snowfall rates likely hitting at least an inch an hour at times. Lake enhancement will keep the higher rates going in the east into tonight, with continued good agreement among most models of higher QPF totals there.
Already seeing several reports of accidents this morning and travel will be most difficult this afternoon into tonight as the heavier snow moves through.

Overall, it looks like southern Wisconsin is still on track for a widespread 8 to 12 inches, with some higher amounts possible in some locations along and east of the Kettle Moraine.

DDV

SHORT TERM
Issued 220 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Today through Sunday:

Snow is overspreading the region from the southwest this morning. This will continue over the next several hours as warm advection and upper level lift increase across the area.
Snow may be just a touch later to arrive in east central Wisconsin, but rates will pick up by mid morning.

Overall forecast expectations have not changed much over the last 12 hours. The heaviest snowfall rates will occur late this morning through this evening, with embedded, transient bands of 1"/hr rates moving across the area. Lake enhancement is also still expected for those areas adjacent to Lake Michigan.

Snow will end Sunday morning from west to east, with storm total amounts generally between 8 and 12 inches for most of the area, with the chances of realizing the higher amounts greatest across the east, where lake enhancement will be in play. Travel conditions will be hazardous, particularly this afternoon into tonight.

Heading into Sunday, blowing snow is looking like an increasing concern, with northwest winds gusting between 20 and 30 MPH at times. Depending on how the forecast evolves later today into tonight, it's possible that a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow may be needed on Sunday.

Boxell

LONG TERM
Issued 220 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunday night through Friday:

A wnwly flow aloft will prevail for the new week as a large upper low will reside over Hudson Bay into nrn Quebec, while mean shortwave troughing will be in the vicinity of the Desert SW with an upstream upper ridge in the ern Pacific Ocean. Srn WI will be between or near a series of shortwave troughs in the flow for the week, with chances (20-40%) for snow at times. At the surface, polar high pressure and cold temps are expected for Mon-Tue AM followed by swly winds and warm advection Tue afternoon into Wed AM. A Canadian cold front will then pass late Wed afternoon or night with cold advection and wnwly sfc winds into Thu. Another approaching sfc trough from Canada will then bring a return of swly winds and warm advection for later Thu into Fri. High temps will range from the upper teens to 20s for the week with lows in the single digits most nights.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Widespread light to moderate snow continues across southern WI this morning. Looking at a quarter inch per hour to just above half inch per hour snow rates with visibility ranging from 1/4 sm to 1 sm. Will continue to see conditions deteriorate through the late morning and afternoon as ceilings continue to fall to IFR/LIFR levels (below 1kft) and snow rates increase closer to 1 inch per hour rates. Will see these snow rates spread from the southwest to the northeast through the evening, but areas along the lakeshore (MKE and ENW) may see periodic bouts of higher snow rates and lower flight conditions at times late this morning and early afternoon before the low pressure lifts in bringing a more consistent LIFR and higher snow rates through the evening. Highest snow rates and greatest accumulations will continue through the evening but gradually lessen from the southwest to the northeast after 03z while lingering the longest along the lakeshore through around 06z. Then light to moderate snow returns overnight and lingers into Sunday morning before gradually diminishing after daybreak.

As for winds seeing east-southeasterly late this morning, but will begin to pick up with gusts of 20-25kt for a couple of hours and shift more southerly for southeastern WI and east northeast for areas north of I-94 later this afternoon and evening as the low pressure skirts south of the WI/IL. Overnight winds will back to the northwest an increase through early Sunday morning and through the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kt.
With these two windows for gustier winds and snow a bit more on the fluffier side, can expect some blowing/drifting snow impacts as well, even as the snowfall ends.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 220 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winds will increase from the southeast this morning as low pressure around 29.8 inches tracks across KS to the south tip of Lake Michigan into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for both increasing winds and building waves. For the open waters, there will be a brief six hour window of south to southeasterly gales late this afternoon and early evening for the southern third of the lake. Winds will weaken below gales as the low pressure passes the southern tip of Lake Michigan overnight Saturday. Stronger northwesterly winds will then develop Sunday into Sunday evening and may reach gale force as the strengthening low pressure area moves away. Thus a Gale Watch is in effect for Sunday and Sunday evening for the entire open lake. High pressure will then build in later Sunday into the start of next week with light winds.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Winter Storm Warning
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056- WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065- WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 AM Sunday.

LM
Gale Warning
LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 PM Saturday to 9 PM Saturday.

Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 PM Sunday.