Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Berlin, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 317 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Tonight through Monday night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is centered along the Ontario- Quebec border early this afternoon. A surface ridge extends southwest of the high pressure center through southern Wisconsin, resulting in continued sunny conditions. Temperatures are thus warming nicely early this afternoon, with the warmest readings once again situated away from the Lake Michigan shoreline. The aforementioned warming will result in widespread highs in the 70s along/west of I-41, with cooler readings in the 50s and 60s anticipated closer to the lakeshore. Apparent in GOES water vapor imagery, a stagnant/cutoff upper low continues to linger across the lower Mississippi Valley. The feature will gradually begin to migrate northeast toward the western Ohio Valley Monday through Monday night, ultimately drawing close enough to supplant the low level surface ridging currently in place across southern Wisconsin.
The upper low's approach will result in increasing mid-upper level clouds Monday afternoon. An isolated shower or thundershower can't be completely ruled out in southeast Wisconsin Monday evening, though most precipitation is expected to remain south and east of the region.

Monday Evening: Mid-upper clouds will continue to thicken as upper low pressure slowly advances toward the Ohio Valley. Falling mid- level heights & embedded DPVA will phase favorably with the diurnal cycle to the southeast of the area Monday afternoon, allowing for scattered shower and thundershower development from north-central Illinois into Indiana & Lower Michigan. Said development will attempt to migrate north & west into the region after sunset, though activity will struggle to maintain as it battles a stabilizing boundary layer & shallower low level moisture. Have thus withheld mentionable (15% or greater) precip probabilities from the majority of the region through Monday evening, but can't completely rule out an isolated shower or thundershower reaching southeast Wisconsin. In the event an isolated shower/thundershower reaches southeast Wisconsin, no hazards are expected.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 317 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

Synopsis: Upper low pressure will linger over the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday, opening up & gradually migrating into the mid-Atlantic during the day on Wednesday. Despite never being centered directly overhead, the feature will remain proximate enough to support widely scattered shower and storm chances primarily during the afternoon & early evening periods both Tuesday and Wednesday. A more organized & progressive upper trough will eject from the north-central Rocky Mountains Wednesday, encouraging surface cyclogenesis across the Dakotas. The upper trough & affiliated surface low will progress into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, with the upper trough acquiring negative tilt during the afternoon and evening hours. Said negative tilt will induce a pronounced cold frontal response at the surface, with the boundary sweeping across southern Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening hours. With well-above normal surface temperatures and sufficient boundary layer moisture in place ahead of the front, better chances for showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast Thursday afternoon and evening across southern Wisconsin. A few storms could be strong to severe. The surface front will quickly sweep east Thursday night, though the upper trough will continue to linger over the western Great Lakes into Friday. Pending lingering low level moisture, additional more scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon. Winds will shift west-northwesterly next weekend, allowing temperatures to return back toward normal.

Tuesday Through Wednesday: Temperatures will continue to trend upward under the influence of generally southeasterly surface flow.
Said southeast flow will allow deeper low level moisture to become established. With upper low pressure lingering to the southeast of the area, the warm/moist conditions in the boundary layer will be supportive of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon periods. Bulk shear values will be poor (~5-10 kts in the 0-6 km layer) on Tuesday, which should limit stronger storm potential.
Shear values will be a touch higher Wednesday (~10-20 kts in the 0-6 km layer), which could lead to slightly better organization of storms. Don't anticipate widespread strong storms, though DCAPE values in the ~300-700 J/kg range could lead to some gusty winds in any more organized storms developing Wednesday afternoon. Will continue to monitor trends in the coming forecasts.

Thursday Through Thursday Evening: Better chances for showers and storms enter the forecast along/ahead of a cold front & upper trough. It remains too early to offer a high amount of detail regarding setup, though global & mesoscale guidance continues to hint at an overlap of instability and wind shear conducive for organized storms (a few of which could be strong to severe). Said instability-shear overlap would be best away from the Lake Michigan shoreline, where southeast winds could keep conditions cooler & more stable. Southern Wisconsin continues to be highlighted for severe weather potential in the D5 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Will be monitoring trends closely in the coming forecasts.

Friday Through Friday Evening: Depending on how moisture clears/recovers behind the Thursday front/storms, additional more scattered storms could develop beneath a passing upper trough. Will continue to monitor trends.

Quigley

AVIATION
Issued 317 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Generally east-southeasterly winds and clear skies are expected through the period at all terminals as high pressure lingers near and just north of Lake Ontario. VFR conditions thus continue to prevail through Monday afternoon at all aerodromes. Can't rule out brief periods of east-northeast winds during the afternoon hours near Lake Michigan, especially if the lake breeze becomes stronger than currently forecast. Best potential for any such wind shifts will be at KMKE and KENW both today and tomorrow. Have trended into this potential this afternoon at both fields in the 18Z update, and will continue to monitor trends for Monday afternoon in later forecasts. Mid-upper clouds will begin to build into southeastern Wisconsin Monday afternoon as an upper disturbance approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Precip-free conditions continue through the duration of the period at all terminals.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 317 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

1032 mb high pressure is centered along the Ontario-Quebec border this afternoon, resulting in generally northeasterly winds across the southern half of the open waters & southeasterly winds further north. Winds will turn south to southeasterly across the entirety of Lake Michigan tonight as 998 mb low pressure moves into the northern Great Plains. Currently centered over the lower Mississippi Valley, 1012 mb low pressure will attempt to advance toward the western Ohio River Valley Monday, with winds once again shifting out of the northeast across the southern open waters. South-southeasterly winds are expected to continue further north. Anticipate similar conditions through Tuesday as the low lingers near the Ohio River.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon & early evening hours on both Monday & Tuesday ahead of the approaching low. Best chances for precipitation will be across the southern half of Lake Michigan each day.

A larger area of 994 mb low pressure will advance into the northern Great Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, resulting in east- southeast winds across all of Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered shower and storm chances will continue Wednesday afternoon & early evening across the entirety of the open waters. The aforementioned surface low will move into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, dragging a cold front across Lake Michigan during the afternoon and evening hours. Chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with a few stronger storms possible. A west-southwest wind shift is expected behind the front on Friday. Said winds will be gusty, though gales are not anticipated at this time. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming forecasts. Winds will be accompanied by additional areas of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Friday afternoon/evening.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in nearshore zones during the afternoon & early evening periods early this week. Best chances for showers/storms will be Tuesday and Wednesday. With low pressure moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley, southeasterly winds will increase on Thursday. Gusts and wave heights could approach Small Craft Advisory levels, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front will cross the region Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing more widespread chances for showers and storms. A few storms could be strong to severe. Winds will shift out of the southwest behind the departed surface front on Friday, resulting in even stronger wind gusts during the afternoon hours. Could thus see additional Small Craft Advisory conditions in nearshore zones on Friday afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored over the coming forecasts.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.