Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delwood, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Tonight into Saturday

A closed 500 mb low will produce scattered to numerous showers as it moves east southeast from northern Minnesota east into southern Lower Michigan. With the best instability (500-1500 J/kg) east of the area, not anticipating many thunderstorms in our area. If there is one, it would be in southwest and central Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts will be mainly less than a tenth of an inch.

Considered issuing a Wind Advisory west of the Mississippi River, but model soundings show that the mixing depths will continue to decrease throughout the afternoon. As this occur, the ability to tap into the higher winds aloft will decrease.

Monday into Wednesday

A closed low pressure area will move east from eastern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota east into the southern Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, north of this low, there will be a 500 mb ridge located the north and northeast of this low. Dry easterly winds on the south and southwest periphery of this high will continue to advect dry air into parts of the forecast area. This will result in a distinct northern extent of this rain. There is still some uncertainty on where this will occur. When compared to yesterday, the rain has shifted slightly further north. While this was the case, the 50th percentile of the precipitable water vapor has remained stay near 1 inch. At this time, rain totals will likely range from a 0.5 to 1 inch north of Interstate 94 and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. In northeast Iowa, there is a 20-45% chance that the rain may exceed 2 inches.

It continues to look like the higher instability and shear will remain just south of the forecast area. As a result not anticipating severe weather at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions continue for most locations, except for portions of southeastern Minnesota. A few bands of light to moderate rain will move through the area this evening into the overnight period. Throughout this evening, MVFR to IFR CIGS move into the area and are expected to persist through much of Saturday.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts of 25 to 30 kts are expected to continue through the evening, with the strongest winds for areas along and south of I-90, until a northwest wind shift takes place tonight, roughly between 04Z and 08Z. These northwest winds will be slightly lower than today with sustained winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts between 20 and 25 kts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.