Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delwood, WI
March 29, 2024 10:08 AM CDT (15:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:42 AM Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 11:25 PM Moonset 7:28 AM |
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 291140 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer with increasing clouds and light rain/wintry mix developing north of I94 with continued potential for ice accumulations for parts of Clark and Taylor Counties.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms for parts of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Hail up to one inch possible if stronger storms develop.
- Seasonable Sunday through Tuesday with rain chances increasing. 50-80% probability of a wetting rain through Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Overview:
Latest water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed a closed 500mb trough over the Northern Rockies with a closed low off the California coast. Ridging was located over Minnesota/Iowa with high clouds spilling into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered over the forecast area with 08Z temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s and light and variable winds.
The latest WSR-88D radar mosaic showed a few echoes across Illinois with spotty showers for Indiana and a few echoes aloft in northwest Iowa.
Warmer with increasing clouds and light rain/wintry mix developing with continued potential for ice accumulations for parts of Clark and Taylor Counties:
A trough moving through southern Canada into the Plains will break down the ridge to the west today and across the local forecast area tonight. A leading weak ripple tonight and a stronger shortwave pushes through in the north Saturday. An area of surface low pressure develops over Iowa with a surface warm front across northern Illinois and a surface trough to the north. Ahead of the surface trough southeast flow increases and the surface trough passage with colder air arrives Friday. 850mb warm air advection increases across the forecast area today combined with increasing moisture transport and some upper level support. The moisture transport increases across the eastern half of the forecast area then shifts east with the better axis from Missouri into Illinois toward Indiana. The upper level support also splits somewhat with one area going to the north and the other farther south. As a result, we continue to see our greater QPF north of I94 and south and eastern parts of the forecast area. However, there remains high variability between the models on precipitation amounts. Our current forecast has 0.20" or less, however some of the models have higher .5" amounts.
Virga or sprinkles/flurries may dry to develop, however saturation will increase mainly after 5pm with showers developing with the strengthening 30-40kt low level jet. A northwest to southeast area of showers should lift northeast during the evening with possibly another band pushing across north central Wisconsin after midnight before exiting the area Saturday morning.
Forecast soundings are a little more variable tonight with the timing and duration of the warm nose north of I94. We continue to have a wintry mix north of I94 and some ice accumulations from a trace to 0.2". If these trends continue, a winter weather advisory may be issued for Taylor County and possibly Clark Co.
100-500 J/kg instability spreads a little farther northward tonight, thus continue to mention isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50kts is present toward DBQ with a robust low level jet, and steep mid-level lapse rates, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm with hail the primary hazard.
Highs today and Saturday should be in the 40s and 50s with lows tonight around 30s for Clark/Taylor Co. to the lower 40s for Grant/Clayton Counties.
Sunday into Next Week:
Moisture transport across Illinois with the zonal pattern aloft and warm advection north of the warm front should produce increasing rain chances for parts of the area Easter Sunday, with 50-80% probability of a wetting rain for much of the area through Monday as the upper level trough swings through. Again with the colder temperatures north of I94, a rain snow mix could occur there. Some low thunder probabilities continue across our south. The EC EFI has 50 to 60 percent of the members with above the climate max instability across our south . The 50 to 60% above the climate max qpf with a shift of tails of 0 is mostly south of the forecast area Monday. An area of 500mb low pressure drops in behind the storm system Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night with another shot of cold air. Some potential for a rain/snow mix. Seasonal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures in the 50s may be optimistic for Wednesday if the cold air hangs around longer.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Satellite imagery shows SCT-BKN mid-level clouds spreading across the region this morning. VFR conditions are expected to continue for much of the day today. However, a system moving into the region will bring light rain chances and potential for MVFR ceilings tonight (40-70%- timing updates expected). There is still some variability among model guidance with KLSE/KRST sitting in between two focus areas for precipitation. Will maintain the mention of VCSH at KLSE for now and continue to assess trends.
Otherwise, southeast/east winds will be on the increase during the day today with a few gusts possible. Winds look to become light for a short time overnight and shift to more northwest for the day Saturday.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warmer with increasing clouds and light rain/wintry mix developing north of I94 with continued potential for ice accumulations for parts of Clark and Taylor Counties.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms for parts of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Hail up to one inch possible if stronger storms develop.
- Seasonable Sunday through Tuesday with rain chances increasing. 50-80% probability of a wetting rain through Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Overview:
Latest water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed a closed 500mb trough over the Northern Rockies with a closed low off the California coast. Ridging was located over Minnesota/Iowa with high clouds spilling into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered over the forecast area with 08Z temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s and light and variable winds.
The latest WSR-88D radar mosaic showed a few echoes across Illinois with spotty showers for Indiana and a few echoes aloft in northwest Iowa.
Warmer with increasing clouds and light rain/wintry mix developing with continued potential for ice accumulations for parts of Clark and Taylor Counties:
A trough moving through southern Canada into the Plains will break down the ridge to the west today and across the local forecast area tonight. A leading weak ripple tonight and a stronger shortwave pushes through in the north Saturday. An area of surface low pressure develops over Iowa with a surface warm front across northern Illinois and a surface trough to the north. Ahead of the surface trough southeast flow increases and the surface trough passage with colder air arrives Friday. 850mb warm air advection increases across the forecast area today combined with increasing moisture transport and some upper level support. The moisture transport increases across the eastern half of the forecast area then shifts east with the better axis from Missouri into Illinois toward Indiana. The upper level support also splits somewhat with one area going to the north and the other farther south. As a result, we continue to see our greater QPF north of I94 and south and eastern parts of the forecast area. However, there remains high variability between the models on precipitation amounts. Our current forecast has 0.20" or less, however some of the models have higher .5" amounts.
Virga or sprinkles/flurries may dry to develop, however saturation will increase mainly after 5pm with showers developing with the strengthening 30-40kt low level jet. A northwest to southeast area of showers should lift northeast during the evening with possibly another band pushing across north central Wisconsin after midnight before exiting the area Saturday morning.
Forecast soundings are a little more variable tonight with the timing and duration of the warm nose north of I94. We continue to have a wintry mix north of I94 and some ice accumulations from a trace to 0.2". If these trends continue, a winter weather advisory may be issued for Taylor County and possibly Clark Co.
100-500 J/kg instability spreads a little farther northward tonight, thus continue to mention isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50kts is present toward DBQ with a robust low level jet, and steep mid-level lapse rates, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm with hail the primary hazard.
Highs today and Saturday should be in the 40s and 50s with lows tonight around 30s for Clark/Taylor Co. to the lower 40s for Grant/Clayton Counties.
Sunday into Next Week:
Moisture transport across Illinois with the zonal pattern aloft and warm advection north of the warm front should produce increasing rain chances for parts of the area Easter Sunday, with 50-80% probability of a wetting rain for much of the area through Monday as the upper level trough swings through. Again with the colder temperatures north of I94, a rain snow mix could occur there. Some low thunder probabilities continue across our south. The EC EFI has 50 to 60 percent of the members with above the climate max instability across our south . The 50 to 60% above the climate max qpf with a shift of tails of 0 is mostly south of the forecast area Monday. An area of 500mb low pressure drops in behind the storm system Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night with another shot of cold air. Some potential for a rain/snow mix. Seasonal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures in the 50s may be optimistic for Wednesday if the cold air hangs around longer.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Satellite imagery shows SCT-BKN mid-level clouds spreading across the region this morning. VFR conditions are expected to continue for much of the day today. However, a system moving into the region will bring light rain chances and potential for MVFR ceilings tonight (40-70%- timing updates expected). There is still some variability among model guidance with KLSE/KRST sitting in between two focus areas for precipitation. Will maintain the mention of VCSH at KLSE for now and continue to assess trends.
Otherwise, southeast/east winds will be on the increase during the day today with a few gusts possible. Winds look to become light for a short time overnight and shift to more northwest for the day Saturday.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KVOK VOLK FIELD,WI | 13 sm | 13 min | E 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 37°F | 18°F | 44% | 30.04 |
La Crosse, WI,
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