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FXUS63 KARX 282007 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 207 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Above-normal temperatures Wednesday with more seasonable highs Thursday and Friday.

- Mainly dry outside of minor snow/flurry chances north central tonight.

- Uncertainty continues on precipitation timing and type for the Friday night into early next week.

Overview:

Water vapor satellite imagery/heights/lightning showed a 500mb trough from eastern Canada into the New England States, a ridge over the Rockies, and a closed low off the West Coast. The local area was under northwest flow aloft with a shortwave noted over Manitoba.
The 28.12Z MPX sounding had 0.09" of precipitable water, which is 25 to 50% of normal for this time of year. The 850 mb temperature was nearly -11 deg. C, however the surface temperature was nearly -14 deg. C. Midday visible satellite imagery showed increasing mid- level clouds associated with the mid-level warm air advection. With the clearing skies, overnight lows plummeted to single digits above and below zero. Normal lows are typically in the 20s at RST/LSE. By 19Z, increasing southwest winds are allowing temperatures to recover into the teens and 20s.

Snow/flurry chances north tonight; Warmer for Wednesday, but more seasonal for Thursday and Friday. Still mainly dry:

A shortwave trough tracking to the north along with a strengthening 30 to 40kt low level jet will allow a warm front to push through tonight along with a weak wind shift. South to southwest winds will increase, then gradually shift to the west, then southwest for Wednesday. Milder air for Wednesday with above normal highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Another shortwave trough will track through the Great Lakes Thursday with a stronger push of cooler air for Thursday and Friday. Seasonal to below normal temperatures will return for the end of the work week from 30 to 40 degrees. The frontal passages are mostly dry, however in the short term will need to monitor for any squeezing out of light precipitation. The EPS/CMC/GEFS ensembles are mostly 0-10% for more than a trace of precipitation.

Through the week, the closed low off the West Coast heads toward the Four Corners region and ahead of it, moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The operational runs of the NAM/EC/GFS all keep the storm system mostly south of the forecast area through Friday.

Precipitation chances Friday night into early next week:

There continues to be some uncertainty with a couple of weather system for the weekend into early next week. Lagging trough energy moves in Friday night into Saturday and could bring mixed precipitation chances back into the forecast area for the weekend into early next week. 20% of the 28.06Z EC ensemble members have some light mixed precipitation across the forecast area during this time. Another trough deepens over the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday with increased snow chances. Nearly 50% of the 28.06Z members have light accumulating snow.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions today with variable mid-high clouds fl100-250. A ripple in the northwest flow aloft will push through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening with a warm front pushing through the region. A low level jet develops and affects the TAF sites 22-05Z with 35 to 45kts winds aloft. Included low level wind shear at both sites. The hi-res guidance indicates increasing low level moisture ahead of the 925-850mb wind shift where patchy lower ceilings could develop. Relative humidity/clouds appear overdone upstream related to this, thus have included scattered lower clouds with this feature. Southwest winds increase 10 to 20kts today with a period of 20 to 30kt gusts at KRST this afternoon and this evening. Winds become west and slacken 10kts or less at KRST by 12Z. South winds at KLSE 5 to 12kts overnight with a few stronger gusts.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

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