Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Lisbon, WI
July 3, 2024 12:44 AM CDT (05:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:18 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 1:49 AM Moonset 6:18 PM |
FXUS63 KARX 030433 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1133 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The atmosphere is priming itself for a second wave of showers and storms, with a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat across northeast IA and southwest WI. Another 1-3" could fall this afternoon into the evening, and a Flood Watch is in effect. The flooding threat diminishes after 8-9 pm.
- July 4th has shower and thunderstorm chances increasing from west to east as the day progresses, with most areas seeing rain at some point during the afternoon and evening. There was a small increase in the severe storm threat across northeast IA for later Thursday. Also, more rain is forecast with 1" north of I-90 a higher probability (35-45%).
- Unsettled weather into the weekend with periodic rain chances and below normal temperatures. Probabilities have increased north of I- 90 for 1"+ of rain Friday too. Heavy rain and severe weather chances look minimal at this time after Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Flash Flooding Threat Through Evening
GOES visible imagery showing rapid destabilization occurring across southeast Iowa with a warm front now located near I-80 per observations at 18Z and moving north. SPC mesoanalysis at 19Z indicates 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE has moved into northeast IA and far swrn WI, with the warm front and 1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE forecast to just pass through the southern part of Grant county.
There is a big pool of SBCAPE to the south, around 4500 J/Kg.
Lightning and storms are on the increase regionwide but the most significant area is the convergent, inverted trough northeast of the Topeka surface low center in central Iowa.
Convective initiation there will train into the Flood Watch area and the CAMS have done a nice job leading that conceptual model.
The air mass is tropical with 2" precipitable water (PW) values indicated on the GOES PW in the clear, warm sector over southeast IA at 1920Z.
Thus, expect the storms to form on the trough as radar indicates they are, and train into the Flood Watch area with mid-level frontogenesis favoring lift northwestward leveraging any elevated instability (albeit only 250-500 J/Kg). Have updated rain amounts to 1-2.5" total in the Flood Watch with 3" right in the heart of a training axis. The most threatening window is 4-8 pm with diminishing threats afterward and all precipitation east of the area by midnight. Should the warm sector enter parts of the far southern Grant county, there may be a window of surface-based storms where a tornado could not be ruled out and a higher wind gust. We will be monitoring this situation and the surface CIN over the coming hours.
Wednesday is looking outstanding and one of the better days of the week it seems.
July 4th Still Looking Wet
There are still some details to work out,the forecast generally is on track for July 4th with weather system moving in from the west during the day and into the night. The model guidance is consistent with its idea of a deepening tropospheric low shifting into the area in northwest flow with good 300-500mb qVector convergence overcoming the area in the later afternoon and evening. By 7 pm Thursday, a mid- level jet max is forecast over Iowa with the area seeing some increased juxtaposition of SBCAPE and deeper wind shear. These probabilities of 750 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6km shear are on the increase with 30-40% suggested over northeast Iowa, decreasing north and east. Instability seem to be the main question with a rich pool further south, and some guidance differences in southerly flow or easterly flow ahead of this low at the surface. Overall, increasing shower and storm chances Thursday. SPC has the area in a marginal risk /level 1/ which seems appropriate. There may also be a heavier rainfall threat of over an inch Thursday night. The 02.00Z Grand Ensemble targets the I-94 corridor right now with 35-45% probabilities beginning on I-90 and increasing north Thursday afternoon and night. This is a tricky little system when many people want to be outdoors, so hopefully additional details can be added to the forecast in the next day.
Unsettled into the New Week
Friday is a day for the frogs it seems. The deep low lingers overhead with some instability present. It seems like a day where showers and occasional storms pinwheel across the area. This system on Friday will need to be watched a bit for higher rainfall amounts over 1". While the tropical precipitable water values shift east, there is more of a trowal-like air stream wrapping around the north side of the low-level low into WI with values of 1.25-1.50". Right now, the 100 member Grand Ensemble is suggesting a 35% chance of 1"+ north of I-90.
The low shifts east with shortwave ridging in place for Saturday in much of the guidance and the highest probability for a dry day with comfortable temperatures. Rain chances then ramp up for Sunday with yet another system coming in. Unsettled overall in this period with below normal temperatures and humidity.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and storms have mostly pushed east of the local area.
While satellite and observations show some clearing in the west, MVFR to IFR conditions still linger across portions of the area. Have also noted some patchy fog has started to develop with lingering moisture. There are some differences in model guidance on how this evolves, but will likely introduce a period for fog overnight to the latest forecast. Will continue to monitor trends though and make short-term adjustments if necessary. Otherwise, light winds tonight become more west and increase to around 10 kts into the day. VFR conditions look to prevail for the day Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Flooding continues on the Mississippi river with no large changes noted in the new forecasts except for Guttenberg and McGregor Iowa. The river forecast came up another 1/2 foot or so and it seems the Wisconsin river input water flow plays a part with the forecast consistency.
Otherwise, with 1-2" of rain fell across the area last night and this morning. There are rises occurring and forecast on the tributaries, and some to flood stage, but nothing major out of last nights rain.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ061.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1133 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The atmosphere is priming itself for a second wave of showers and storms, with a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat across northeast IA and southwest WI. Another 1-3" could fall this afternoon into the evening, and a Flood Watch is in effect. The flooding threat diminishes after 8-9 pm.
- July 4th has shower and thunderstorm chances increasing from west to east as the day progresses, with most areas seeing rain at some point during the afternoon and evening. There was a small increase in the severe storm threat across northeast IA for later Thursday. Also, more rain is forecast with 1" north of I-90 a higher probability (35-45%).
- Unsettled weather into the weekend with periodic rain chances and below normal temperatures. Probabilities have increased north of I- 90 for 1"+ of rain Friday too. Heavy rain and severe weather chances look minimal at this time after Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Flash Flooding Threat Through Evening
GOES visible imagery showing rapid destabilization occurring across southeast Iowa with a warm front now located near I-80 per observations at 18Z and moving north. SPC mesoanalysis at 19Z indicates 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE has moved into northeast IA and far swrn WI, with the warm front and 1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE forecast to just pass through the southern part of Grant county.
There is a big pool of SBCAPE to the south, around 4500 J/Kg.
Lightning and storms are on the increase regionwide but the most significant area is the convergent, inverted trough northeast of the Topeka surface low center in central Iowa.
Convective initiation there will train into the Flood Watch area and the CAMS have done a nice job leading that conceptual model.
The air mass is tropical with 2" precipitable water (PW) values indicated on the GOES PW in the clear, warm sector over southeast IA at 1920Z.
Thus, expect the storms to form on the trough as radar indicates they are, and train into the Flood Watch area with mid-level frontogenesis favoring lift northwestward leveraging any elevated instability (albeit only 250-500 J/Kg). Have updated rain amounts to 1-2.5" total in the Flood Watch with 3" right in the heart of a training axis. The most threatening window is 4-8 pm with diminishing threats afterward and all precipitation east of the area by midnight. Should the warm sector enter parts of the far southern Grant county, there may be a window of surface-based storms where a tornado could not be ruled out and a higher wind gust. We will be monitoring this situation and the surface CIN over the coming hours.
Wednesday is looking outstanding and one of the better days of the week it seems.
July 4th Still Looking Wet
There are still some details to work out,the forecast generally is on track for July 4th with weather system moving in from the west during the day and into the night. The model guidance is consistent with its idea of a deepening tropospheric low shifting into the area in northwest flow with good 300-500mb qVector convergence overcoming the area in the later afternoon and evening. By 7 pm Thursday, a mid- level jet max is forecast over Iowa with the area seeing some increased juxtaposition of SBCAPE and deeper wind shear. These probabilities of 750 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of 0-6km shear are on the increase with 30-40% suggested over northeast Iowa, decreasing north and east. Instability seem to be the main question with a rich pool further south, and some guidance differences in southerly flow or easterly flow ahead of this low at the surface. Overall, increasing shower and storm chances Thursday. SPC has the area in a marginal risk /level 1/ which seems appropriate. There may also be a heavier rainfall threat of over an inch Thursday night. The 02.00Z Grand Ensemble targets the I-94 corridor right now with 35-45% probabilities beginning on I-90 and increasing north Thursday afternoon and night. This is a tricky little system when many people want to be outdoors, so hopefully additional details can be added to the forecast in the next day.
Unsettled into the New Week
Friday is a day for the frogs it seems. The deep low lingers overhead with some instability present. It seems like a day where showers and occasional storms pinwheel across the area. This system on Friday will need to be watched a bit for higher rainfall amounts over 1". While the tropical precipitable water values shift east, there is more of a trowal-like air stream wrapping around the north side of the low-level low into WI with values of 1.25-1.50". Right now, the 100 member Grand Ensemble is suggesting a 35% chance of 1"+ north of I-90.
The low shifts east with shortwave ridging in place for Saturday in much of the guidance and the highest probability for a dry day with comfortable temperatures. Rain chances then ramp up for Sunday with yet another system coming in. Unsettled overall in this period with below normal temperatures and humidity.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and storms have mostly pushed east of the local area.
While satellite and observations show some clearing in the west, MVFR to IFR conditions still linger across portions of the area. Have also noted some patchy fog has started to develop with lingering moisture. There are some differences in model guidance on how this evolves, but will likely introduce a period for fog overnight to the latest forecast. Will continue to monitor trends though and make short-term adjustments if necessary. Otherwise, light winds tonight become more west and increase to around 10 kts into the day. VFR conditions look to prevail for the day Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Flooding continues on the Mississippi river with no large changes noted in the new forecasts except for Guttenberg and McGregor Iowa. The river forecast came up another 1/2 foot or so and it seems the Wisconsin river input water flow plays a part with the forecast consistency.
Otherwise, with 1-2" of rain fell across the area last night and this morning. There are rises occurring and forecast on the tributaries, and some to flood stage, but nothing major out of last nights rain.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ061.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KVOK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVOK
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVOK
Wind History graph: VOK
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La Crosse, WI,
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