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FXUS63 KARX 301726 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Key Messages:

- Seasonal temperatures Today.

- Periodic light precipitation possible from late tonight into Tuesday.

Today:

A cold front will move southeast through the region today. Other than a wind shift and few clouds there will not be much sensible weather with its passage. With a slightly later passage than originally thought yesterday, 925 mb temperatures are not as cold (around 0C south of I-90 and -1.5 to -4.5 north of I-90) today.
As a result, bumped up the high temperatures up a couple of degrees and still might not be warm enough. High temperatures will range from the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Late Tonight through Friday:

The 30.12z models continue to show that a wave of low pressure will move along a front which extends from northern Missouri into the southern Great Lakes. The CAMs and deterministic models show that most of the precipitation associated with this system will stay south of our area. However, there is a chance that some light snow might get into the southern parts of Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast Iowa and southern half of Grant County.
Little, if any, accumulations are expected. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 30s.

Friday night through Saturday:

Another low pressure system will move southeast of the area. The operational NAM continues to look like an outlier when compared the GEFS and ECMWF ECE as far as QPF. However, it has shifted its precipitation further south and it is now better in line with the aforementioned ensembles. The GEFS, ECMWF ECE, and Canadian ensemble families are in agreement that there is up to 30% chance that the QPF could be as high 0.05 inches across Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin. Snow amounts will likely range from a trace to a half inch.

Saturday night through Sunday:

The model families continue to diverge on their precipitation during this time period. The probabilities of 5 hundredths of an inch in the GEFS is anywhere from 45 to 75% across the entire forecast area. Meanwhile, the ECMWF ECE has its probabilities for these totals much further south. These probabilities are up to 25% for Clayton and Fayette counties in northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin and around 10% along Interstate 90. The Canadian ensemble is also further south like the ECMWF ECE, but its probabilities are slightly higher ranging from around 10% near Interstate 90 to 50% in the far southern parts of our forecast area.

Monday night into Tuesday:

It continues to look like an Alberta Clipper will move southeast through the area. The NBM continues to not show much with this system. However, there has been enough consistency in the models to include at least a 20 to 30% chance of precipitation.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions are expected for most of the region with an incoming disturbance from the southwest increasing cloud cover throughout the TAF period. The 30.12z HRRR brings in some higher probabilities (60- 90% chance) for MVFR ceilings near the WI/IL border region Friday afternoon, but these are not expected to reach either TAF site. Mostly expecting cloud cover to increase overnight with bkn high clouds at both TAF sites. Winds will remain between 5-10 kts through the forecast period with winds changing direction from NW to NE overnight.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

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