Sparta, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sparta, WI

April 15, 2024 11:31 AM CDT (16:31 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM
Moonrise 10:24 AM   Moonset 1:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sparta, WI
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 151028 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 528 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another dry day with some concerns for elevated fire weather conditions. However, winds will be much diminished compared to previous days, helping to lower the risk for quick moving fires.

- Punchy spring storm promises a wet day Tue with 1+" amounts (60- 90% chance) along with strong easterly winds (gusts upwards of 40 mph).

- Some severe risk Tue...although uncertainty on storm track lowers confidence in extent of the threat.

- Colder end to the week. Could see some freezing temps for the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

* OVERVIEW:

Upper level shortwave trough spins out of the desert southwest today, developing a negative tilt/closed low as it drives over the plains. Associated sfc low set to track across central IA by 06z Wed, then slide over/near the local forecast area overnight. The storm starts to weaken as it exits east/northeast of the region Wed.

Ample low level thermodynamics, coupled with a strong fetch of 850 mb moisture transport/nose of LLJ will power-fuel expansive area of showers and a few storms Tue, trending northeast of the local area by mid evening. Further convection could/will pop southwest of this rain region - more attendant to the sfc low. Pcpn chances will linger into Wed.

* SEVERE RISK? much depends on positioning of sfc low/warm front

Mixed signals in the models over the past few days on how to move this system...with a significant bearing on how much of a severe risk the local area will be under. Farther north with the low - higher threat for severe weather. Conversely, if it tracks father south, the risk lowers.

Timing plays a role too. With rain moving in by early Tue morning, how quickly it can shift northeast could allow for instability to rebuild behind it...or keep the area "mucked over" for most of the day, inhibiting the atmosphere's ability to rebuild CAPE (locally).

Positioning/track also factors in how wind shear will be utilized.
30+ kts of 0-1km progged with a lot of turning would not be realized as you move north of the warm sector...but 1-7km shear 30-40 kts would aid convective development.

All said, it's still unclear how the severe risk will shake out locally. Expect refinement to the forecast over the next 24 hours...and keep a keen eye on Tue afternoon/evening when the risk looks highest.

* RAINFALL: how much?

While there remains a fairly large spread in potential outcomes, the GEFS and EPS tell similar stories with approx 1 to 2" Tue through Wed night. Latest operational runs of both models are running on the higher end of their members, leaning more into the 2+ inch range.
The ensemble guidance suggests there is a smaller threat for that to occur, with approx a 30% shot for that much - and mostly confined to northeast IA/southwest WI.

The bulk of the rainfall looks to fall in the warm air advective band Tue afternoon/night, coincident with the PWs of 1 1/4+" and strong push of low level moisture transport.

* WINDY! Strongest Tuesday

Pressure gradient tightens ahead of the deepening low pressure system as it shifts northeast out of the southern plains Tue. Strong signal in all the guidance for strong/gusty winds kicking in Tue morning, with these strong easterlies persisting into the evening before shifting northeast of the local area with the approach of the sfc low. The GEFS is the stronger of the models, the EPS members and then the NAM bringing up the rear. They all suggest 40+ mph wind gusts are not only possible/probable - peaking late morning through the afternoon. Wind Advisory is a possibility if these trends continue.

Winds subside for later Tue night into Wed morning as the low tracks across the area, but pick back up from the northwest for the afternoon as the low exits. Wind fields Wed not as robust as Tue and shouldn't be nearly as strong/gusty. Guidance tempers expectations by 10 to 15 mph off of what they paint for Tue. Not looking like an Advisory kind of day at this time, but still windy none-the-less.

* REST OF WEEK OUTLOOK: trending cooler (freeze for weekend?), drier

Upper level flow swings a bit more northwest but remain fairly progressive for the the latter half of the work week, into the weekend. A few bits of upper level energy could rotate across/near the region, but no clear-cut signals from the long term guidance (nor agreement) on timing/positioning. Will let the model blend dictate any pcpn chances for now (generally 20% or less).

For temps, much cooler air flows in from Canada post the early week storm system. 850 mb temps peak around +10 C Tue, tumbling to sub zero by Thu night. Over 75% of both the EPS and GEFS members hold highs in the 50s from Wed through the weekend. Some potential for frost/freeze temps by the weekend too. Early season planters should pay close attention to forecasts - some action may be needed to protect tender vegetation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 526 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the Upper Mississippi River Valley for the 15.12Z forecast period. Lighter winds today. Winds increase tonight before subsequent precipitation chances and flight restrictions near 14.12Z TAF terminus.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Another relatively dry day with afternoon humidities expected to bottom out in the lower 20 percents. Winds will be lighter than previous days though, easterly from 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts into the lower 20s. The higher winds will be across the open and unsheltered areas west of the Mississippi River. The recent relatively warm and windy conditions have worked to dry fuels with FFMCs now in the lower 90s. The diminished wind speeds will help lower the threat for quick spreading fires, but fuels are conducive and care should be taken with any outdoor burning.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCMY SPARTA/FORT MC COY,WI 4 sm36 mincalm10 smClear63°F32°F32%30.02
KBCK BLACK RIVER FALLS AREA,WI 22 sm16 minN 0610 smClear63°F28°F27%30.05
KLSE LA CROSSE RGNL,WI 24 sm38 minNNE 0610 smClear64°F30°F28%30.04
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GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley   
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La Crosse, WI,



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