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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 328 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 031910 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 310 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

DISCUSSION

Temperatures have climbed into mid 80s across most of southeast Michigan, as of 3 PM. This is 2-5 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago.

Upper level energy/trough over the Rockies will be sliding east, ending our warm and dry spell. Still one more very warm day tomorrow, despite the beginning of the 500 mb height falls and some increase in clouds. Favorable low level southwest flow and 925 mb temps up to 23 C temps supports highs well into the 80s once again, although surface winds look to be backed south-southeast east of U.S. 23 which maintains some marine influence and has a modest cooling impact on the temps for areas across the far east. Also with the marine influence, did add patchy fog to the forecast tonight, along/east of the Irish hills.

Solid height falls and moisture axis (pw values ~1.5") arriving Wednesday night-Thursday morning with adequate low/mid level fgen and modest instability resulting in widespread showers and possible embedded weak thunderstorms.

Main northern stream upper level wave/cold pool moves into the Dakotas Thursday morning and as this system moves into the Western Great Lakes Thursday evening, should see a renewed blossoming of showers Thursday afternoon/evening and possible thunderstorms with the lingering 850 mb Theta-E ridge in place before the mature mid level dry slot overspreads the Central Great Lakes Thursday night.

Falling/tight 850 mb temperature gradient Friday and Friday night, with 850 mb temps on track to fall at or slightly below freezing for the Weekend. Still some model differences with the strength of low developing over the northern Appalachians/eastern Great lakes. This will dictate the strength of wind gusts for the first half of the weekend, with the cold airmass leading to a well mixed boundary later. Would expect max wind gusts of 30 MPH at a bare minimum, with solid potential of 40+ mph (especially over the Thumb region). This is supported by the Euro ensemble members.

With the large and deep 500 mb low (sub 540 DAM per Euro) progged to develop, cold cyclonic flow with lake enhancement will bring the potential of isolated-scattered showers right into Monday before significant height rises and warming finally takes place Tuesday, although still potential for spokes of energy rotating down from northern Ontario to possible delay moderating temperatures.

MARINE

Southerly pressure gradient becomes a bit tighter on Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west increasing wind speeds to 15 to 20 knots, but the warm airmass should continue to limit mixing depths. Offshore winds will help keep wave heights minimized in the nearshore zones. A cold front will slowly track through the Central Great Lakes in the Wednesday night-Thursday night time frame, producing occasional showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. A second front will then work through the area Friday night veering winds further to the northwest for the weekend. With the much colder airmass arriving (850 mb temps lowering to zero or slightly colder), wind speeds over the weekend will be strong and gusty, with a pretty good chance of low end gales occuring over the open waters of lake Huron for a period of time. Just a slow decrease in winds expected as we head into early next week.

HYDROLOGY

Slow moving frontal boundary will move through Wednesday night through Thursday night. A round of widespread showers will move through Wednesday night-Thursday morning, producing a quarter of an inch to half an inch. A second round of showers and possible thunderstorms is expected later Thursday into Thursday evening, with this batch of showers also producing a quarter of an inch to half an inch on average. Thus, total rainfall is expected to reside in the half an inch to one inch range by the time the showers taper off Thursday night. Flooding is not expected due to the long duration, even if isolated totals end up slightly exceeding 1 inch.

CLIMATE

Here are the record high temperatures for October 3rd and 4th:

October 3rd: Detroit 89 (set in 1953)
Flint 89 (set in 1953)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 87 (set in 2005)

October 4th: Detroit 89 (set in 1951)
Flint 88 (set in 1951)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 87 (set in 1967)

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

AVIATION...

High pressure positioned over the central Appalachians holds stable and benign weather in place through this remainder of the daylight hours. Light S wind trends more SSE this evening with abundant dry air in the column maintaining clear skies. Potential exists for another round of fog for the Metro Detroit terminals as the marine layer moves inland late overnight/early Wednesday morning. Included an MVFR visibility mention but have low confidence in IFR/LIFR with more of a gradient in place than the previous few nights. Lingering influence of high pressure maintains VFR conditions on Wednesday with increasing southerly winds and high clouds beginning to arrive ahead of the next cold front.

For DTW...Favored window for fog development lies between 09z and 13z Wednesday with current probabilities favoring MVFR visibility.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling/visibility below 200ft or 1/2SM early Wednesday morning.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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