Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kinde, MI

DISCUSSION

Return flow from a departing high pressure system, which will wash out across the Appalachia late today, will veer and then maintain southwest flow across the Great Lakes which will advect the warmer Great Plains air upstream into Michigan. The 00Z DTX RAOB recorded an 850mb temperature of 6.2C, with projected model guidance forecasting a value near 15C by 18Z today. The surface impacts will be temperatures that rise into the mid to upper 70s for a daytime high while warm sector mixing depths, which fall just shy of h850, maintain breezy conditions within the warm sector. Peak gusts around 25 mph are expected for most locations, isolated 30-35 mph in spots, mainly across the Tri-Cities and Thumb. While minimum RH values are not out of the ordinary for this time of year, the breezy conditions in conjunction with dry fuel has prompted an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning for the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Please see the fire weather forecast and synopsis for additional details.

A second high pressure system will push into the Midwest through the afternoon and will drive a cold front across SE MI from north to south this evening through the overnight hours, roughly 00Z - 08Z.
Isolated showers will be possible ahead of the front, but overall moisture quality remains pretty anemic with almost no instability to work with. Low chance PoPs (10-20%) will reside across the Tri- Cities and Thumb, where moisture quality is slightly better relative to surrounding locations, but otherwise this is expected to be a dry frontal passage for most locations. Within the near-wake of the front, there will be a narrow window of steeper low-level isentropic downglide/subsidence that can bring a quick pop of wind gusts of 25- 35 mph, after the nocturnal stable layer has formed. Breezy conditions are not expected to be long-lived through the remaining morning hours as low-level stable conditions quickly redevelop.

The cold front is expected to clear the state by 12z, settling over Ohio/Indiana, bringing cooler conditions with highs ranging from the low 60s (Tri-Cities, Thumb), to upper 60s (near the MI/OH border).
Most locations remain dry through the day, with rain chances then increasing initially across southern Michigan (I94 south) from overrunning along the stalled frontal boundary. Rain chances then expand northward through the morning first from low pressure which will move across southern Lake Michigan, allowing the front to nudge back into Michigan, while more elevated activity attempts to filter in across northern lower MI and across the Tri-Cities and Thumb, ahead of an upper-level trough. The expanding upper-level trough will reinforce low pressure over the Great Lakes and will support scattered to numerous shower activity across the cwa Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.

This low pressure system will strengthen and occlude over the Continental Northeast where an expansive and strong thermal trough then fills in across the Great Lakes Monday through the midweek period. This will bring the coolest Fall weather of the season Mon- Tue with highs in the low 50s and lows hitting or nearing the freezing mark. This also bring the chance for lake effect rain showers Monday and Tuesday as cooler air filters over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes.

MARINE

Milder air builds into the area today with west to southwest winds gusting up to 25 to 30 knots across central Lake Huron during the day. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Saginaw Bay and the Lake Huron nearshore waters to Harbor Beach through the day. A strong cold front then drops across the central Lakes late this afternoon into tonight, bringing scattered showers with winds veering to the northwest. Gusts to 35 knot gales are forecast to develop across northern and central Lake Huron in the wake of the front, and a Gale Warning is in effect from 6 PM to midnight.
Elsewhere, gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected through early Saturday morning, resulting in a building wave field across southern Lake Huron. High pressure then builds into the region on Saturday allowing winds and waves to subside. A passing low pressure system will bring increasing north to northeast winds in the late Sunday to Monday time frame with additional marine headlines possible.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

AVIATION...

A cold front will advance across the northern lakes on Friday, while high pressure over the eastern lakes gets suppressed to the south.
This will result in an increasing southwest gradient during the course of the day. Ample dry air and daytime heating will result in steep low level lapse rates which will lead to gusty southwest winds during the afternoon on Friday. Model soundings are supportive of gusts around 20 knots across Detroit to 25-30 knots at mbS. The cold front will move south across the area Saturday night and will be marked by a wind shift to the north. The lack of low level moisture will cloud based mainly VFR along the front.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms today or tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ047>049-053>055.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.