Kinde, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kinde, MI

May 28, 2024 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM
Moonrise 12:22 AM   Moonset 9:28 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 942 Pm Edt Tue May 28 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday evening - .

Rest of tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy this evening becoming mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 25 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.

Thursday - North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinde, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 282340 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 740 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms through tonight bring a few strong storms capable of small hail, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds.

- Dry weather builds in during Wednesday which continues through late week.

- Temperatures drop below average throughout the mid week period before warming up again into the weekend.

AVIATION

Numerous coverage of convective showers, with a few thunderstorms, will continue to percolate across southeast Michigan through the late evening period. Gradual decline noted in the overall coverage of lightning as daytime heating fades and rain cooled/outflow driven environment takes an increasing hold currently precludes a defined tsra mention and will continue to monitor near trends. Pockets of heavier rainfall will offer brief reduction of visibility at times.
VFR conditions will prevail outside this activity early tonight.
Lingering high based cloud for the overnight hours. Despite the recent rainfall, sufficient gradient flow from the northwest limits fog potential for the early morning period. A general increase in diurnal cu on Wednesday as moisture associated with a low pressure system to south slowly vacates the region. This may trigger a low coverage of showers/t-storms of limited duration across mainly the Detroit corridor Wednesday afternoon. Winds prevailing from the north Wednesday, with some intermittent gusts to 20 knots possible.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There remains a low probability for a thunderstorm to move through DTW late this evening. A secondary, brief window for isolated thunderstorm development will exist Wednesday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through tonight. Medium Wednesday.

* Low for thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 403 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

DISCUSSION...

Convection flared up on schedule early in the diurnal heating cycle this afternoon in favored locations off the higher terrain of northern Lower Mi and within the lingering early morning altocu south of I-69. Consolidating and converging outflows favor new development filling in along the M-59 to I-69 corridors while ongoing activity plays out through late afternoon and evening. Mid afternoon hourly mesoanalysis measures 0-1 km MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg which is the more likely convective response due to the uncapped profile vs 1000-1500 J/kg surface based CAPE. At least one report of pea size hail came in from a brief reflectivity hotspot and this will be the primary storm mode through peak instability as freezing level holds at a relatively low 8 kft level. Slow-moving shower and thunderstorm clusters also present a localized heavy rainfall threat as the profile is uncapped and also moisture rich with PW hovering around 1 inch. Predictability on location or duration remain low given the random nature of outflow driven redevelopment expected through the event.

The component of surface based convection fades by midnight north of I-69 while transitioning into a band of showers and a rumble of thunder associated with the upstream mid level circulation. The system over the upper Midwest this afternoon dives into IN/OH while keeping showers churned across the southern border region late tonight into Wednesday morning. Upstream satellite presentation this afternoon offers confidence in model strength and track projections as leading deformation matures into the primary source of forcing.
The mid level circulation and surface reflection track far enough south of the Michigan border for a setup of the 850-700 mb moisture axis/theta-e ridge along/south of I-96 from which the consensus model QPF axis holds south of I-94, and even south of the Michigan border in many solutions.

Some residual showers linger near the southern border through Wednesday morning while clouds hold across the rest of Lower Mi into the afternoon. Today's models are bullish on a broad region of cool surface high pressure gaining dominance under lingering cyclonic flow aloft. This maintains a greater cloud component until Wednesday night when deep layer subsidence take hold to bring a clearing trend. Below normal temperatures then become the weather focus for the late week period, mainly at night, and despite nearly full sun through Thursday. A few of the more sheltered and typically colder locations could touch 40 for low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning before readings rebound to finish the week.

MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon-evening, particularly along and south of Saginaw Bay.
Isolated gusts in these storms may exceed 35 knots alongside frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail as they track southeast across the marine zones. Showers and thunderstorms continue through Wednesday morning before the upper trough axis moves through mid-day. On the broader scale, waves and gusts subside as the pressure gradient relaxes briefly tonight. High pressure then gains influence through the day Wednesday, veering flow to the north with modest increase in winds/waves toward Small Craft Advisory thresholds again by Wednesday morning. Given headline expirations this afternoon will defer additional issuances to the evening update, noting that Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed beginning Wednesday morning for Saginaw Bay and portions of the Lake Huron nearshore. High pressure holds overhead through the rest of the week with quieter conditions anticipated.

HYDROLOGY...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will be active this afternoon and this evening with locally heavy rainfall. Spotty totals near a half inch are possible while basin average totals remain light to moderate, generally in the one quarter to one third inch range from this afternoon through sunrise Wednesday. Minor flooding in prone areas or ponding of water on roadways can be expected mainly late this afternoon and early this evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
KP58 11 mi71 min N 2.9 62°F 29.9349°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 20 mi48 min NNE 5.1G7 60°F 56°F29.9250°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi26 min WSW 11G12 62°F 29.97
45163 32 mi46 min WSW 14G16 62°F 1 ft29.98
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 33 mi26 min S 1.9G4.1 57°F 29.96
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 39 mi36 min N 7.8G9.7 51°F 48°F29.9648°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 40 mi66 min SW 17G19 61°F 29.93


Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBAX HURON COUNTY MEMORIAL,MI 11 sm11 minWSW 0310 smOvercast59°F54°F82%29.98
Link to 5 minute data for KBAX


Wind History from BAX
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Detroit, MI,




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